Former Vice President Joe Biden holds a 12-point lead over President Donald Trump, according to a Monmouth University poll released Thursday.
The presumptive Democratic presidential nominee leads the incumbent 53%-41%, up slightly from the 52%-41% lead the poll found last month.
Half of respondents, 50%, told Monmouth pollsters they likely would not support the incumbent, while only 39% said the same of Biden.
“Half of all registered voters have ruled out backing Trump. Trump showed in 2016 that he can thread the needle, but these results suggest the president has even less room for error in 2020. He must convert some of those unlikely supporters if he is to win a second term,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.
Biden is also faring better in favorability than the incumbent and than former Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton did in 2016.
Forty-four percent of voters said they had a favorable view of Biden. The same number had an unfavorable view.
That puts Biden well above Trump’s 38%-55% favorabilities, though the president had even worse approvals of 31%-53% this time four years ago. Clinton didn’t fare much better than, narrowly edging Trump with similarly lackluster 34%-52% favorability.
Biden holds a 55%-21% lead among the 21% who said they did not favor either major party nominee.
“Four years ago, Clinton was the insider candidate who approximated an incumbent in many voters’ minds. There is no mistaking who wears that mantle this year,” Murray said. “Trump’s problem is that voters who aren’t enamored with either candidate tend to go for change.”
Despite the results, Trump’s base continues to give him largely unqualified support. Though more voters, 52%, said they were confident Biden had the mental and physical fortitude to act as president than said the same of Trump, 45%, a greater number, 33%, said they had great confidence in Trump’s stamina.
Only 23% said the same of Biden.
“Biden hasn’t developed the kind of adulation among his base that Trump can count on from his supporters,” Murray said. “This seems to be a fairly common trend in the campaign so far and is at least partly due to the Democrat being out of the public eye during the pandemic.”