Mapping out South Jersey Democrats’ great election night

Two years ago, South Jersey Democrats faced a reckoning in the New Jersey Legislature.

The far-reaching party organization already had a substantial legislative bloc that included the President of the State Senate and the Majority Leader of the Assembly, and had hopes of expanding their caucus even further. But instead, Republicans gained a whopping six seats in South Jersey, unseating Senate President Steve Sweeney (D-West Deptford) in the process.

Well, if 2021 was South Jersey Democrats’ great failure, then 2023 got to be their revenge. Democrats flipped four South Jersey seats into their column, among them Sweeney’s old Senate seat and an Assembly seat that hasn’t been won by a Democrat since 1973.

Across most of the region, Democrats dramatically outran Gov. Phil Murphy, whose close re-election in 2021 doomed many Democratic legislative candidates. In some towns, Democrats did more than 20 percentage points better than Murphy.

Overall, across the eight legislative districts that cover the seven core counties of South Jersey – Atlantic, Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Cumberland, Gloucester, and Salem – Democratic Senate candidates won this year by a 55%-44% margin, well up from Murphy’s 50%-49% win. (Exactly one town, Burlington County’s North Hanover, is not in one of those eight South Jersey districts.)

The centerpiece of South Jersey Democrats’ strong night came in the 3rd legislative district, Sweeney’s old district that State Sen. Ed Durr (R-Logan) shockingly flipped in 2021.

Based in conservative-leaning parts of Gloucester, Salem, and Cumberland Counties, the 3rd district seemed like it could fall permanently into the GOP column after Durr’s unexpected victory; after all, the district supported 2021 Republican gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli by 16 percentage points. But South Jersey Democrats weren’t willing to let it go that easily, and they invested heavily into this year’s race.

The result was resounding: former Assemblyman John Burzichelli (D-Paulsboro) beat Durr 53%-46%, absolutely crushing him in Gloucester County and holding his own in the district’s rural areas as well. Two Gloucester County towns, National Park and Greenwich, swung more than 30 points towards Democrats versus the 2021 governor’s race. Murphy only won eight of the 3rd district’s 38 towns, while Burzichelli won 18.

3rd district Democrats should celebrate Burzichelli’s victory, but they should also prepare to immediately go onto the defensive in 2025.

Burzichelli’s two running mates, Assemblymembers-elect Heather Simmons (D-Glassboro) and Dave Bailey (D-Woodstown), won by substantially smaller margins than Burzichelli; they got around 1,500 fewer votes than he did, and only won by a combined 51%-49% margin. That likely speaks to both the strength of Burzichelli and the weakness of Durr, whose past comments and right-wing policy positions were broadcast far and wide in Democratic ads.

Without Durr to kick around in 2025 – unless he tries for a comeback, that is – Simmons and Bailey will lose a key campaign talking point. They’ll also have to contend with a gubernatorial election at the top of the ticket, which will rob South Jersey Democrats of much of their ability to define the campaign on their own terms.

Using their monetary advantage and their vote-by-mail dominance, South Jersey Democrats were able to reshape this year’s 3rd district electorate in their favor. That may not be possible, though, when a high-profile governor’s race is going on at the same time; depending on how the Democratic gubernatorial nominee does and which party holds the White House in 2025, Simmons and Bailey could be in real trouble.

One district over, South Jersey Democrats also scored a major win in the 4th district, electing Assemblyman Paul Moriarty (D-Washington) to the Senate against former Washington Township Councilman Chris Del Borrello by a convincing 53%-43% margin.

Back in February 2022, the 11 members of the New Jersey Legislative Apportionment Commission – none of whom were Democrats from South Jersey – decided to reshape the 4th district into one of the most competitive seats in the state. The new map imperiled South Jersey Democrats’ grip on a district they had held for decades, and threatened to shrink their already small legislative delegation even further.

But Moriarty, alongside Assemblymen-elect Dan Hutchison (D-Gloucester Township) and Cody Miller (D-Monroe), defied the new map and won anyway. Incredibly, Moriarty’s margin was larger than the 2021 margin of retiring 4th district State Sen. Fred Madden (D-Washington), even though Madden was running under far more favorable district lines.

Like Assembly Democrats in the 3rd district, Miller and Hutchison may have a tough re-election contest in 2025, especially President Joe Biden wins re-election next year. But Gloucester and Camden Democrats have now shown off their remarkable operation two cycles in a row, so they won’t be easy targets.

The biggest upset came in the 8th legislative district, a Burlington County district that has long been Charlie Brown’s football for South Jersey Democrats: frequently in reach, never quite winnable. 

This year, though, Chesterfield Democratic municipal chair unexpectedly broke through and unseated Assemblyman Brandon Umba (R-Medford) by 255 votes. That’s despite the 8th district growing a fair bit more Republican in redistricting; it would have backed Ciattarelli by nine points in 2021.

Katz’s running mate, Hammonton Education Association President Anthony Angelozzi, finished 440 votes behind Assemblyman Michael Torrissi (R-Hammonton). And the Democratic nominee for Senate, former Pemberton Township Councilwoman Gaye Burton, only lost to former Burlington County Freeholder Latham Tiver (R-Southampton) 51%-49% – even though she was entirely abandoned by South Jersey Democrats during the campaign.

The results are a fairly clear indication that Burlington County, and especially its big suburban towns like Evesham and Medford, are growing more resolutely Democratic. 8th district Democrats were even able to flip one town, Mansfield, that voted for Donald Trump in 2020.

That’s a good sign for Assemblywoman-elect Katz, but 2025 is looking like it will be a dogfight no matter what. Angelozzi and Umba have both said they intend to run again, setting up a four-way rematch with a lot at stake.

The one true bright spot for Republicans this year was the 2nd legislative district in Atlantic County, where State Sen. Vince Polistina (R-Egg Harbor Township), Assemblyman Don Guardian (R-Atlantic City), and Assemblywoman Claire Swift (R-Margate) won re-election by comfortable margins.

South Jersey Democrats spent some money trying to boost County Commissioner Claire Fitzpatrick (D-Linwood)’s campaign, but it’s clear that Polistina has built up a strong enough brand to withstand the onslaught. He beat Fitzpatrick 52%-45%, winning every town in the district except heavily Democratic Atlantic City and Pleasantville.

It certainly didn’t help Fitzpatrick, either, that Atlantic City and Pleasantville only cast 13% of the 2nd district’s vote, despite making up 26% of its residents. That’s a perennial problem for Atlantic Democrats, especially in off-off-years like 2023 when turnout among voters of color is very low.

With the governor’s office up in 2025, Democrats may have a bit more of a shot against Swift and Guardian – but this year’s results weren’t promising.

It’s also worth noting the strong performances of two other South Jersey senators, State Sens. Michael Testa (R-Vineland) and Troy Singleton (D-Delran), even though their races weren’t competitive. Both relatively young senators – Testa is 47 and Singleton is 50 – have built up formidable personal brands in their areas of the state, and were rewarded with big wins on election night.

In Testa’s case, that meant annihilating Democrat Charles Laspata in the 1st district in Cumberland, Cape May, and Atlantic Counties. Testa, a potential candidate for governor or Congress down the road, beat Laspata 65%-35% in the formerly competitive district, making him one of legislative Republicans’ top overperformers.

Testa’s win in Vineland is especially notable. The plurality-Hispanic Vineland typically leans Democratic, but Testa – whose grandfather was Vineland’s first elected mayor – has clearly cracked the code there; he won the city 60%-40%.

Singleton, meanwhile, won the 7th district against former Burlington City Mayor James Fazzone 68%-32%, a colossal margin in a seat that was held by a Republican a few years ago.

In doing so, Singleton carried every single town in the district by double digits and outran Phil Murphy by 15 points. The senator recently chose to pass on a campaign for Congress, but his victory this year shows that he is in total command of his home territory.