State Sen. Bob Andrzejczak leads Republican Michael Testa, Jr. by fourteen points, 53%-39%, in a poll of 1st district likely voters conducted by The Stockton Polling Institute of the Hughes Center at Stockton University.
President Donald Trump is more popular in the district than Gov. Phil Murphy, the poll shows.
The Senate poll numbers include leaners.
The race for two Democratic-held State Senate seat is much closer, the poll finds.
Incumbents Bruce Land and Matthew Milam lead Republicans Erik Simonsen and Antwan McClellan.
Land is at 27% and Milam at 26%. Simonsen and McClellan are each at 22%.
“With state legislative elections the top race on the ballot this year, turnout is expected by many to be low, which tends to favor the slightly better-known incumbents,” said John Froonjian, interim executive director of the Hughes Center. “The Democrats have almost twice as much in campaign funding available heading into the final weeks of the campaign, given them another potential advantage.”
Four days before the 2017 general election, Stockton released a poll showing Republican Assemblyman Christopher Brown leading State Sen. Colin Bell by three points, 46%-43%, in the 2nd district Senate race — numbers that were within the margin of error. Brown won that race by seven points, 53.5%-46.5%.
Trump has an upside-down job performance rating of 38%-50%.
Murphy has an upside-down 31%-40% job performance rating in the district, which includes Cape May County and parts of Cumberland and Atlantic.
“Those numbers illustrate why the Democratic incumbents have tried to establish some distance from the governor, and why the challengers have tried to tie them to Governor Murphy,” Froonjian said.
The 1st district is split on impeachment, with 47% supporting it and 48% opposing it.
Andrzejczak has favorables of 40%-17%, while Testa is at 35%-19%.
Republicans have complained that the poll over-samples Democrats.
“With all due respect to the folks at Stockton, their poll ignores both the Republican registration advantage in the 1st Legislative District and the even more favorable Republican turnout advantage in recent years,” said Brittany O’Neill, Testa’s campaign manager. “Specifically, the Stockton Poll would have you believe that Democrats will have a 6-point turnout advantage on Election Day, when in 2017 Republicans in this district had 7-point advantage, and even had a 6-point advantage in the 2018 ‘blue wave’ election. The Stockton Poll also predicts that Unaffiliated voters will turnout at a higher rate than Republicans, which has never, ever happened. It would be the first time in history. “
The 1st district voter registration is 30.5% Republican, 28.4% Democratic and 39.6% Independent.
The Stockton poll shows their sample as 28.4% Republican, 34.1% Democratic and 29% Independent.
“We don’t ask party registration. That changes frequently. We ask what you consider yourself to be,” Froonjian told the New Jersey Globe. “I don’t weight data according to party registration.”
Froonjian says the poll screens for likely voters and for those who already voted.
“Despite the million dollar smear campaign funded by Camden Party Bosses and far-left special interests, Mike Testa has the momentum and we expect to win on November 5th,” said O’Neill. “After we do, we’ll graciously accept an apology from the good people at Stockton.”
The poll interviewed 500 adult residents who were screened as likely voters between October 14-21 and has a margin of error of +/- 4.4%. Adult residents is not as accurate as actual voters.2019-1024-poll-wfs
This story was updated at 1:33 PM and again at 2:43 PM