Poll shows Sherrill with 7 point lead over Ciattarelli among likely voters

Democrat Mikie Sherrill leads Republican Jack Ciattarelli by seven points, 46%-39%, among likely general election voters in a TechnoMetrica Poll for the New Jersey Governor’s race conducted for the conservative-leaning League of American Workers.

The poll puts Sherrill’s favorables at 40%-31%, and Ciattarelli at 33%-36%.   Among registered voters, Sherrill leads by just one percentage point, 37%-36%,

President Donald Trump has upside-down favorables of 39%-55%; nearly twice as many New Jersey voters think the Big Beautiful Bill will make their finances worse than better.

Gov. Phil Murphy’s favorables are at 46%-39%.

The poll has some errors: it misidentified Socialist Workers Party candidate Joann Kuniansky as Green Party candidate Joanne Zielinski; the Green Party candidate, Lily Benavides, was tossed off the ballot last week as a replacement for the original candidate, Steven Zielinski, who withdrew for health reasons.  Libertarian nominee Vic Kaplan was referred to as David Kaplan; either way, each of the two independents, fictional as they are, are polling at 2%.

Still, the poll numbers are consistent with other polls over the last month.

TechnoMetrica Poll, aka TIPP Polling, had an A- rating from FiveThirtyEight.  Their New Jersey survey had a sample size of 1,524 registered voters and was conducted from August 25-28 with a margin of error of +/- 3%.