Murphy’s other 2023 focus? Kentucky, Louisiana, and Mississippi

For most people in New Jersey politics, this year is all about the state’s legislative elections. But for Gov. Phil Murphy, there are other elections on the radar – namely, the three gubernatorial campaigns he’s responsible for assisting as the chairman of the Democratic Governors Association (DGA).

Democrats are defending two governorships in Kentucky and Louisiana, and working to flip a Republican-held governorship in Mississippi. All three states may be geographically and politically distant from New Jersey, but Murphy’s perch at the DGA makes him an important player in the effort to win the three deep-red states.

According to Jessica Taylor, the Senate and governors editor at the Cook Political Report, this year’s marquee contest is in Kentucky, where incumbent Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear faces Attorney General Daniel Cameron. Although Kentucky typically votes overwhelmingly Republican, Beshear narrowly defeated an incumbent GOP governor in 2019 and retains high approval ratings.

“Beshear represents a state that’s heavily Republican, but he’s also the most popular Democratic governor in the country,” Taylor said. “One thing people have said to me is that he’s been everywhere. He’s a very present governor… Cameron’s biggest challenge is just convincing people who like Beshear that they should not vote for him.”

Holding onto the Louisiana governorship, where pro-life Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards is term-limited, will be a tougher lift for Democrats, Taylor said. Democrats have coalesced behind former state Transportation Secretary Shawn Wilson, while Attorney General Jeff Landry seems to be the Republican frontrunner, though a number of other Republicans are running as well.

Thanks to Louisiana’s unique election system – in which all candidates compete in a blanket October primary, followed by a November general election if no candidate reaches 50% – some details of the race (like the identity of the Republican nominee) are still up in the air. But without an incumbent on the ballot, and given Louisiana’s Republican lean, Democrats are clearly the underdogs.

Finally, there’s Mississippi, where incumbent Republican Gov. Tate Reeves is the favorite against Brandon Presley, a member of the Mississippi Public Service Commission and the second cousin of Elvis Presley. The state hasn’t elected a Democratic governor since 1999, but Mississippi Republicans were recently rocked by a welfare fraud scandal, and Taylor said Democrats see the possibility of an upset.

As of right now, the Cook Political Report rates Kentucky’s race as Lean Democrat, Louisiana’s as Lean Republican, and Mississippi’s as Likely Republican.

Across all three races, Murphy will officially be in charge of coordinating national Democrats’ strategy. In practice, Taylor said, that largely means raising money and cultivating donor networks – something that Murphy, a former major Democratic donor himself, is well-equipped to handle.

This also isn’t Murphy’s first time leading the DGA. He first chaired the organization in 2020, when 11 governor’s offices were on the ballot; Democrats ended up holding onto the governorship in North Carolina after a competitive race, but they lost in Montana, resulting in a net loss of one governor’s office.

Thanks to the tough race in Louisiana, this year is likely to result in another net loss of seats on Murphy’s watch. But Taylor said that Murphy himself won’t play much of a direct role in the three states’ campaigns, and probably shouldn’t be blamed for whatever their outcomes may be.

“The average voter in Kentucky, Louisiana, and Mississippi doesn’t know who Phil Murphy is,” she said. “But they know who Joe Biden is, and who AOC and Elizabeth Warren are. You’ll see Republicans try to tie [gubernatorial candidates] to national Democrats like that – more so than saying, ‘It’s run by this guy in New Jersey, and we don’t want a New Jersey liberal down here.’”