Eleven towns that tell the story of New Jersey’s Democratic brawl for governor

With 564 municipalities in New Jersey, election maps can sometimes look more like chaotic mosaics than a clear tool for understanding how a race is unfolding. That’s especially likely to be the case in this year’s Democratic primary for governor, which features a half-dozen candidates and crosscutting dynamics across the state – and which will be the first gubernatorial primary without a county line in generations.

In some towns, candidates need to dominate to have a chance; in others, a second- or third-place showing could be a sign of strength.

In order to make sense of the chaos, the New Jersey Globe has singled out 11 towns that will be key to determining which Democrat will win the nomination to succeed Gov. Phil Murphy. Some inclusions on the list are obvious (astute readers have likely heard of Newark, New Jersey), but every town on the list is meant to be representative of a potentially vital dynamic in the race, from demographics to voter turnout to party machines.

For every town on this list, it would have been easy to add another ten; New Jersey’s hundreds of municipalities, ranging from major cities to barely-there hamlets, each present their own interesting dynamics, and some will undoubtedly surprise everyone with how they vote. Treat this not as gospel, but as a guide to one of New Jersey’s most unpredictable and entertaining primary races in years.

Montclair (Essex County)

When Election Night rolls around, it’s possible two candidates will be in Montclair watching results come in. The famously progressive bastion is the hometown of both Rep. Mikie Sherrill and New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller, who was the town’s mayor from 2020 to 2024. 

For Sherrill, the town could offer a chance to bank votes. The congresswoman has represented most or all of the town since she entered office in 2019, and she has the endorsement of the Essex County Democratic organization, though without county lines, that means less than it once did.

For Spiller, Montclair offers a more complicated reality. Historically, when a candidate’s campaign has sputtered, they can sometimes look home for at least a slight respite. But Spiller’s mayoralty ended in controversy after the town’s CFO alleged in court that Spiller improperly accepted dental insurance from a state plan. Between that controversy and the often middling reviews regarding his performance as mayor, the town may not offer a boost to his well-funded but lower-polling campaign.

But Montclair might be best used as a measure of strength for candidates who aren’t from there. Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop, for example, has built his campaign as a challenge against the party establishment that delivered Sherrill an endorsement in Essex. In the first gubernatorial primary without the party line in decades, Montclair will be a test for how well he can gain votes in suburban liberal strongholds. 

A similar dynamic exists for Newark Mayor Ras Baraka. The mayor is expected to perform well in Black and urban areas of the state, but he’ll likely have to hold his own with progressives across the map. Montclair, a progressive town down the road from his home city that also has a prominent Black community, offers that opportunity.

Sensing a chance to make inroads, Fulop and Baraka have both stumped in Montclair. If there is a surprising result on June 10, Montclair could be at the center of it. 

Newark (Essex County)

In Newark, the political calculus is simple: Ras Baraka must run up the score.

Baraka has shown ability as a skilled campaigner in his city, the state’s largest, winning a competitive contest in 2014 and easily winning re-election in 2018 and 2022. But many of those contests featured dismal turnout, with only 18,000 voters turning out in 2022 in a city of more than 300,000 people; the trick for Baraka’s gubernatorial campaign will be to dramatically improve on those numbers. 

He also could have some other candidates chipping away at his Newark support. Sherrill, the choice of the county party, recently got an endorsement from Senate Majority Leader Teresa Ruiz, perhaps the most prominent elected official from the city’s Hispanic community, which has always had a cagey relationship with Baraka. The dynamic could be especially prevalent in the city’s East and South Wards, where most of Newark’s Hispanic population lives.

Spiller, too, hails from Essex County and, like Baraka, would be the state’s first Black governor if he wins.

Baraka will surely win his own city, and likely by a healthy margin. A strong turnout will be needed to make it count, though, given that it’s not clear how far Baraka’s reach extends beyond his home territory. So far, Newark ranks among the bottom in terms of absentee-ballot return rate, according to data from Associated Press elections researcher Ryan Dubicki. If voters don’t show up in early voting or on Election Day, the mayor may not get the cushion he needs to win statewide. 

Jersey City (Hudson County)

Fast-growing Jersey City is another of the state’s large, diverse cities. The city has notable Asian, white, Hispanic, and Black populations, and is home to Mayor Steve Fulop. 

The city is loyal to Fulop, but not unanimously so. The Hudson County Democratic Organization is currently at war with him (more on that below), a local newspaper endorsed against him, and while Fulop is now raising an anti-establishment flag, his past dalliances with party bosses in Hudson County have made some of his city’s progressives distrustful of him.

For example, Ward E, the downtown ward Fulop once represented, is now led by James Solomon, a progressive running for mayor. Fulop will need to bank a huge number of votes out of his old ward, but Solomon hasn’t endorsed in the governor’s race, and he isn’t backing Fulop’s candidates in a tight Assembly primary.

Given Jersey City’s substantial diversity, the city will test each candidate’s ability to build coalitions in the face of stiff competition. Baraka, for example, is expected to perform well with Black voters, and Jersey City will be a prime opportunity for votes. Sherrill, meanwhile, enjoys the endorsement of the Hudson County Democratic Organization, and only time will tell how many voters stay loyal to the party even with the abolition of the party line.

Fulop is still expected to win his home city, even while facing scrutiny from the city’s residents, but like Baraka, he needs to come out of the city with a massive advantage in order to win statewide. 

North Bergen (Hudson County)

So, about that war.

Fulop at one point had the endorsement of the Hudson County Democratic chairman, but the organization turned against him and instead coalesced behind two different House members: first Josh Gottheimer, then Mikie Sherrill after Gottheimer fell out of favor. Since then, Fulop has recruited a slate of Assembly candidates to run across the state, including at the heart of the Hudson County machine – the county party has not only endorsed against him, but now they’re at war with him.

In places like Jersey City, voters may not care too much about what the county party tells them to do. But heavily Hispanic North Hudson, where Union City Mayor/State Sen. Brian Stack reigns supreme, is a much different story, and Fulop may have a tough time making inroads against the party-backed Sherrill.

North Bergen has some particularly interesting wrinkles, since Mayor Nick Sacco is one of the few top Hudson Democrats who has remained loyal to Fulop. North Bergen is one of the few cities in the state, along with Lakewood and Union City, where an endorsement from local bosses like Sacco can not just swing a race, but can result in commanding margins for the endorsee. But Stack, who has long had a poor relationship with Sacco, has gotten involved too, a battle that’s also manifesting itself into a feisty primary in the 33rd legislative district this year.

While Fulop and Sherrill will likely be the two candidates seriously competing for votes in North Bergen, their battle is a proxy for older, even more bitter fights: Stack versus Sacco, Fulop versus the machine he was once a part of but now spurns, and the might of the Hudson Democratic organization versus the new post-county line world order.

Teaneck (Bergen County)

If Rep. Josh Gottheimer is chosen as the Democratic nominee on June 10, it’s going to be in part because he got an absolutely enormous margin out of Bergen County, his political base and the home of his most devoted supporters. Towns like Teaneck will be a test of how deep that support goes.

Gottheimer has represented some or all of Teaneck since 2017, and he’s developed strong ties in the town, especially in its influential Orthodox Jewish community. (The congressman’s support among Orthodox Jews could also be a factor in other cities and towns like Lakewood, Passaic, and Linden.)

But two of his opponents have also made serious inroads in Bergen County’s second-largest town. Baraka has the support of two Black members of the Township Council, giving him a foothold in the town; Fulop, meanwhile, was endorsed by former Mayor Michael Pagan and is running a member of Teaneck’s Orthodox community, Tamar Warburg, on his Assembly slate. (The town, one of the most diverse in the state, also has substantial Hispanic and Muslim populations.)

For Fulop, Baraka, and anyone else, every extra vote they can get out of Teaneck, and Bergen County more generally, is a boon for their campaigns. But for Gottheimer, his home county is do-or-die; if he starts bleeding serious support in Teaneck and other big, diverse Bergen towns like Hackensack or Fort Lee, there’s nowhere else in the state that’s likely to come to his rescue.

One last point on Teaneck: former State Senate Majority Leader Loretta Weinberg, Teaneck’s most iconic politician, has close connections to several of the candidates running, especially her old Senate ally Steve Sweeney – but she hasn’t endorsed any of them.

Cherry Hill (Camden County)

Former State Senate President Steve Sweeney is the South Jersey candidate of 2025: he’s the only candidate from anywhere south of Elizabeth, and he has the near-universal support of the historically formidable South Jersey Democratic organization (with the exception of Cape May Democrats, who opted not to make an endorsement).

But when he was in the legislature, Sweeney only represented one small corner of South Jersey, and most of the region’s voters – including those in vote-rich Camden, Burlington, and Atlantic Counties – have never seen him on their ballots before now. How he does among those voters will determine whether he’s able to remain seriously in contention for the Democratic nomination.

In towns like Cherry Hill, some of his opponents are making a serious play to poach his votes. Gottheimer is working to win Jewish voters statewide, especially in towns with large Jewish communities like Cherry Hill and Voorhees; Sherrill and Fulop, meanwhile, could see their strength in North Jersey suburbs replicated in South Jersey, too.

It would be tough for Fulop to outright win Cherry Hill, but he could absolutely win smaller Camden suburbs like the uber-liberal Collingswood, which just ousted its longtime mayor; his endorsement from the Philadelphia Inquirer, the only major newspaper to weigh in on the race, will likely help.

Once upon a time, when South Jerseyans like Jim Florio and Rob Andrews ran for statewide office, they could expect to get 50-point landslides in Camden County. With so many well-funded candidates making a serious push for South Jersey votes this year, those days are likely over.

But just as Bergen County is a must-win for Gottheimer, Sweeney can’t afford to win Cherry Hill and other big South Jersey towns by anything less than a landslide. In last year’s Senate primary, South Jersey’s seven core counties cast around one-quarter of the statewide vote, so to avoid being drowned out by North Jersey, Sweeney needs every South Jersey vote he can get.

Atlantic City (Atlantic County)

On the opposite side of South Jersey is Atlantic City, another city where Sweeney would like to do well – but it may be even more important for Baraka.

Baraka’s base may be in Newark and its nearby suburbs, but in order to put together a full statewide coalition, he’ll need to rack up votes among Black voters far from his hometown. How well he does in plurality-Black Atlantic City – and in Camden, and Trenton, and Asbury Park, and any other town with a substantial Black population – will be crucial.

Sweeney could cut into Baraka’s margins in Atlantic City, and so could Fulop, who has his own local connections there. Early on in his campaign, Fulop was endorsed by (now-embattled) Atlantic City Mayor Marty Small and Atlantic County Commissioner Ernest Coursey, the city’s two most prominent Democratic politicians – both of whom are leaders in the city’s Black community, a troubling sign for Baraka.

Edison (Middlesex County)

When Middlesex County Democratic leaders endorsed Mikie Sherrill, they were snubbing the one candidate who was actually born in their county: Steve Fulop, who was raised in Edison before he became a Jersey City guy.

And Fulop has fought to make the primary in Edison – where Sherrill has few deep ties beyond the top-down county endorsement – a competitive one. He’s aligned himself with local Democratic mayoral challenger Lav Patel, while Sherrill is running with incumbent Mayor Sam Joshi, though she hasn’t been actively campaigning with him.

The results in Edison may also be an indication of how Asian American voters, who don’t have an obvious champion in a field with four white and two Black candidates, approach the Democratic primary. Last year’s Senate primary, though, showed that the state’s Asian Americans are far from a political monolith; Korean Americans came out in droves to support Andy Kim, but his support wasn’t especially overwhelming among other Asian American groups.

Bound Brook (Somerset County)

Bound Brook isn’t nearly as large or as prominent as most of the towns on the list, and it’s not a critical part of anyone’s statewide coalition. But it’s got two qualities that make it interesting this year.

One is the unusual ballot slogan setup in Somerset County. Somerset Democrats opted to give their party slogan to everyone who asked for it, but Fulop didn’t want it, meaning that voters will be presented with five candidates listed under the “Somerset County Democratic Organization” and one – Fulop – under “Democrats for Change.” Fulop has said that he thinks the contrast will help him, since anyone looking for a break from the status quo is told by the ballot who fits the bill. 

Bound Brook specifically is also interesting because it’s majority-Hispanic – and unlike other Hispanic towns like, say, Perth Amboy or Union City, it’s not located in a county with a heavy-handed Democratic organization telling voters what to do (though the local mayor is supporting Fulop). Hispanic voters make up a sizable bloc in New Jersey, and without a Hispanic candidate in the race, their support is up for grabs, especially in a less machine-dominated town like Bound Brook.

Westfield (Union County)

One of the big X factors in this year’s primary: how will the state’s most committed suburban progressives – the types of people who delivered Democrats their House majority in 2018 and could do so again in 2026 – vote? Westfield, which has never been represented by any of the Democrats running for governor and thus has no longstanding loyalties, is full of exactly that type of voter.

So: will Westfielders vote for Fulop, who’s made an explicit good-government appeal to liberal suburbanites like them and who has the support of Mayor Shelley Brindle? Will they opt for Sherrill, who has the endorsement of the Union County Democrats and remains well-liked among suburban women in particular? Will they be swayed by Baraka’s unapologetically left-wing campaign, allowing him to expand outside his urban base?

Lacey (Ocean County)

Even those who are fairly well-versed in New Jersey politics probably don’t know a lot about what goes on in Lacey Township in southern Ocean County – hence its inclusion on this list.

Lacey, here, symbolizes the parts of the state that don’t make up anyone’s home territory and haven’t been a major focus for anyone’s campaign. There may not be as many Democratic voters in Lacey, or Cape May in the state’s southern reaches, or Newton in its northwestern hinterlands, than there are in big cities like Newark. But in a close race, where multiple candidates’ bases are duking it out with one another, voters in the more neglected parts of the state could prove decisive.

There also aren’t any real Democratic bosses in those areas, making each voter more of a free agent. County parties and local politicians might make endorsements – they have in Warren (pro-Gottheimer), Sussex (pro-Sherrill), and Cumberland (pro-Sweney), for example – but especially without a county line, there’s not much institutional heft to put behind those endorsements.

Some voters may approach the race geographically – Sweeney may have more cachet in Cumberland County, while Sherrill and Gottheimer have each represented parts of Sussex County in Congress. Others might go at it ideologically; New Jersey Democrats in more Republican areas have a somewhat ironic reputation as being more progressive than the average voter, giving Fulop (who has recruited Assembly candidates in many far-flung parts of the state) or even Baraka an advantage.

The mystery is the point: no one truly knows how voters in Lacey will respond to this year’s unique primary. And despite this story’s protestations to the contrary, that’s essentially true of the entire state. We have ideas and guesses about how towns will vote and what voters will do – but only on June 10, beginning at 8 p.m., will any of them start to become reality.