An internal poll from Newark Mayor Ras Baraka’s campaign shows a statistical dead heat in the race for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination, with Rep. Mikie Sherrill leading Baraka by just two points, 13.5% to 11.5%, in a race where 48.4% of Democratic primary voters remain undecided.
The poll puts Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop in third place with 8.6%, putting him in a statistical tie for second place with Baraka. New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller trails Fulop by just six-tenths of one percent at 8%. Rep. Josh Gottheimer is at 5.3%, and former Senate President Steve Sweeney is polling at 4.7%.
The poll was conducted by MDW, a Democratic firm that works for Baraka and has not conducted any previous polls in New Jersey. The New Jersey Globe thoroughly reviewed the questionnaire and raw data for the poll.
“This poll confirms what we’ve been seeing on the ground and in other surveys: Ras Baraka has real grassroots momentum,” campaign spokesman Kabir Moss stated. “He hasn’t spent nearly as much as other candidates, which shows that his support is authentic, and his message is resonating. Ras is the Democrat voters trust to fight for their values — and this is just the beginning.”
Michael Worley, the CEO of MDW, said that Baraka has “gained steadily with key demographics statewide, especially Black and Latino voters” over the last six weeks.
The Democratic primary will be held on June 10 and, thanks to an extended court and legislative battle last year, will feature no organization lines and will utilize office-block ballots instead.
An Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill poll released last week showed a statistical tie: Sherrill (10%) led Spiller and Baraka (8%), Gottheimer and Sweeney (7%), and Fulop (4%). An internal poll conducted by Garden State Forward, a super PAC affiliated with the New Jersey Education Association (NJEA), two weeks ago put Sherrill ahead of Spiller, 20%-15%, with Baraka at 14%, followed by Fulop (10%), Gottheimer (9%), and Sweeney (8%).
The MDW poll was conducted on March 19-20 with a sample size of 935 likely Democratic primary voters via text message and a margin of error of +/- 3%.
