With Menendez indictment, Cook Political Report thinks N.J. Senate race could be competitive

In response to the indictment of Senator Bob Menendez on federal corruption charges, the Cook Political Report has shifted its ratings in New Jersey’s 2024 Senate and 3rd congressional district races from Solid Democrat to Likely Democrat, indicating that both races could be competitive under the right circumstances.

Menendez, who has thus far refused to resign, has lost the support of a huge number of New Jersey Democratic leaders and already has a primary challenger in Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown). That makes it unlikely Menendez will be the Democratic nominee again in 2024 – if he runs for re-election at all – but Jessica Taylor, the Cook Political Report’s Senate editor, said that he could jeopardize the seat if he does find a way to get the Democratic nomination.

“If Menendez somehow wins renomination, it would give Republicans a small chance to make the seat competitive,” Taylor wrote. “‘The best chance Republicans have is Menendez is defiant, doesn’t leave and somehow figures out a way to win the primary,’ one New Jersey GOP strategist told us.”

Should Kim or some other challenger win the nomination, though, Taylor said that the race will no longer be considered competitive.

“If anyone other than Menendez is the nominee, this moves back to a Solid Democrat seat,” she wrote. “But for now, with a sitting senator under a very serious federal indictment, we can no longer keep this race under our current rating.”

Kim’s exit from the 3rd district race also prompted a ratings change there, though President Joe Biden’s 14-point margin in the district means that whichever Democrat wins the nomination will still be a heavy favorite to win. Another forecaster, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, also moved the race to Likely Democratic earlier this week.

The top Republican candidate for the Senate seat at the moment is Mendham Borough Mayor Christine Serrano Glassner, who has begun accumulating endorsements. Other candidates, most prominently Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-Dennis), are also looking at the race.

Back in 2018, when Menendez ran for a third term after beating different federal corruption charges, the Cook Political Report considered his race against self-funding Republican Bob Hugin to be one of the most competitive in the country. 11 days before Election Day, Cook moved the race into the Toss Up category, writing that the focus on Menendez’s ethics problems was hurting him in the polls.

Ultimately, though, those polls ended up underestimating just how staunchly Democratic New Jersey was in the midst of a blue wave, and Menendez won by 11 points.

This story was updated at 12:32 p.m. to reflect the fact that Cook also moved the 3rd congressional district to Likely Democrat.