As New Jersey and the nation mourn the passing of Donald M. Payne, Jr., a six-term congressman from Newark who died on Wednesday at age 65, Democrats are already having discussions about who might replace him in New Jersey’s 10th district, one of the bluest congressional seats in the U.S.
Newark Mayor Ras Baraka could likely have the seat if he wants it, but he doesn’t, the New Jersey Globe has confirmed. Baraka is an announced candidate for the Democratic nomination for Governor next year and doesn’t want to run for Congress.
The 10th district has been represented by a Newark Democrat since 1949, and there’s a strong chance it will stay that way. Several serious potential candidates, including 37-year-old Newark City Council President LaMonica McIver, are among those who could succeed Payne.
For now, all eyes are on Gov. Phil Murphy, who alone has the authority to set a schedule to fill Payne’s unexpired term.
With a slim Republican majority in the House, national Democrats are anxious to fill Payne’s seat as quickly as possible. But New Jersey’s arcane, fungible, and often confusing election laws – including state court judges who can sometimes be slow and malleable — won’t allow for a rapid replacement of Payne.
If Murphy were to issue a writ of special election today, a Democratic primary would be held no earlier than July 4 and could be the following week. That would put the general election – which must be held, even though the district is safe Democratic – no earlier than the week of September 8. New Jersey needs thirteen days to certify an election, which would have a new Member of Congress sworn in around the third week of September.
The longer Murphy waits to decide, the more likely it is that the House will have recessed for their election break before a new Member of Congress is sworn in.
But if Murphy decides to hold the general election on November 5, the results would not be certified until the third week in November.
Murphy’s decision won’t bind the roughly 1,084 elected Democratic county committee members from parts of Essex, Union, and Hudson counties that will pick the party’s candidate for a full two-year term in the November 2024 general election.
A special county committee meeting to pick the new Democratic nominee can’t be held before Payne’s posthumous renomination in the June 4 primary election is certified on June 17, and no later than August 29.
It’s possible that the winner of a special primary election to serve in the 118th Congress and the Democratic nominee to represent the 10th district in the 119th Congress could be different people.
The current partisan breakdown of the House is 217 Republicans and 212 Democrats, with six seats vacant.
New York can fill vacancies faster than New Jersey. After Republican George Santos was expelled on December 1, 2023, a new election was scheduled for February 13; Democrat Tom Suozzi was seated soon after. Following the resignation of Democrat Brian Higgins on February 2, a new election is set for April 30.
There are three other House special elections set for this year: former Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s seat in California will be filled on May 21 after no candidate hit the 50% mark in the March 19 jungle primary. Vacant seats where Republican congressmen in Ohio and Colorado will be filled in June.
When Payne’s father, Rep. Donald M. Payne, died in office on March 6, 2012, then-Gov. Chris Christie declined to call a free-standing special election to fill his seat. Instead, the 10th district special primary and general elections were run concurrently with the regular June and November elections.