DISCLAIMER: Polls can be a helpful tool for understanding elections, but they are an imperfect one, as demonstrated by New Jersey’s three most recent statewide general elections, all of which had results substantially different from what nearly every pollster had projected. Poll results should be treated as data points and guideposts in complex elections, not as ironclad predictions of what will happen; the same is doubly true for internal polls, which are conducted with a specific agenda and candidate in mind. (This disclaimer will appear on all future New Jersey Globe polling stories.)
Long before the 2026 general election begins in earnest, Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-Westfield) may already be at high risk of losing his swingy 7th congressional district seat, according to a poll commissioned by an outside group allied with one of his Democratic foes.
314 Action Fund, a Democratic scientists’ group that’s backing Tina Shah, released an internal poll today finding Shah with a 46% to 43% lead over Kean in an initial ballot test. (After positive biographies of both candidates are read, Shah’s lead expands to 49%-43%.)
The polling memo did not mention any other potential general election matchups; Shah is one of four Democrats running for the seat, and voters will decide which of them will face Kean in next Tuesday’s primary election. The New Jersey Globe reviewed screenshots of the poll showing that the pollster also asked about another Democratic candidate for the seat, Rebecca Bennett, but those numbers went unreleased.
According to the poll, conducted between May 24 and May 26 by the firm Z to A Research, Kean is not particularly well-liked by his own constituents: 50% said they had an unfavorable view of the two-term congressman, versus 32% who said they felt favorably towards him. President Donald Trump, who carried the 7th district by one percentage point in his 2024 campaign, is also substantially underwater at 41%-56%.
“Tom Kean Jr. is in serious trouble and this poll makes clear why,” 314 Action executive director Erik Polyak said in a statement. “He’s not well liked by voters from the get-go, he’s already losing to Dr. Shah head-to-head, and the more voters learn about both candidates, the worse it gets for him.”
There are, of course, plenty of caveats to the poll numbers, as there are for any internal polling released by a campaign or an allied group. 314 Action has a vested interest in seeing Kean defeated in November and replacing him with Shah, so it’s not surprising that the group would want to publicize numbers showing that to be a possibility.
The lack of any data on how other Democrats perform, moreover, means that it’s tough to know what the Democratic baseline is in the district or whether Shah is a uniquely strong candidate.
Shah is not seen as the frontrunner for the district’s Democratic nomination; three other polls released in recent weeks have found Bennett in the lead, albeit by varying amounts. (A mysterious super PAC with possible ties to the GOP began airing ads last week to dent Bennett’s lead, an indication that Republicans view Bennett as their toughest general election foe.)
Still, the fact that there are already poll numbers showing Kean trailing – long before Democrats have truly made their case against the congressman to general election voters – is an auspicious sign for the party. The 7th district has changed hands several times in the last decade, and Democrats and Republicans alike see it as one of the most competitive districts anywhere in the country.
The race has become more nationally prominent this spring thanks to Kean’s extended medical absence, during which he has missed more than 100 votes in Washington and several months of campaigning. Kean told the New Jersey Globe last week that he’ll return to action soon and fully plans on seeking re-election, though details remain sparse.
The Z to A Research poll was conducted on behalf of 314 Action Fund from May 24-26 with a sample size of 430 likely general election voters in New Jersey’s 7th congressional district and a margin of error of +/- 4.7%.
This story was updated at 12:51 p.m. to note that the poll also asked respondents about Rebecca Bennett.
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