Bennett posts big lead in her internal poll

DISCLAIMER: Polls can be a helpful tool for understanding elections, but they are an imperfect one, as demonstrated by New Jersey’s three most recent statewide general elections, all of which had results substantially different from what nearly every pollster had projected. Poll results should be treated as data points and guideposts in complex elections, not as ironclad predictions of what will happen; the same is doubly true for internal polls, which are conducted with a specific agenda and candidate in mind. (This disclaimer will appear on all future New Jersey Globe polling stories.)

Rebecca Bennett has been widely seen as the Democratic frontrunner for New Jersey’s 7th congressional district for several months, and Bennett’s campaign is now releasing polling data to back that up.

In an internal poll of 400 likely Democratic primary voters conducted last week by Impact Research, Bennett earned 36% of the vote – well above her nearest competitor, Tina Shah, who got 15%. Brian Varela and Michael Roth were just behind Shah at 13% and 12%, respectively, while 22% of voters said they were undecided.

“Former Navy helicopter pilot Rebecca Bennett has a wide lead over the field and has the momentum to win the nomination in June and flip this seat for Democrats,” the polling memo states. The 7th district, currently held by Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-Westfield), is considered to be one of the most competitive districts in the country.

According to the poll, Bennett’s edge is not primarily a product of name advantage, since similar percentages of voters said they’d heard of her (67%), Shah (65%), and Varela (58%); Roth, the least-well-funded candidate in the field, lagged behind at 42%. Those name ID numbers could theoretically give all four candidates further room to improve, though there’s only two weeks left until Election Day and many voters have already cast their votes via mail-in ballots.

Of course, as with any internal polling, the new survey was conducted and released with a specific pro-Bennett agenda in mind – but there are other reasons to believe Bennett is in the lead.

Bennett won party endorsements in the 7th district’s four largest counties, which would have been enough to label her the prohibitive favorite in years past, though the death of the county line now makes that establishment support less valuable. She’s also backed by three ex-rivals who ended their campaigns before the filing deadline.

What’s more, Bennett has emerged as the field’s strongest fundraiser, raising nearly $2.7 million for her campaign as of the end of March, a record for a New Jersey House challenger at this point in the cycle. VoteVets, a liberal veterans group, has spent another $600,000 on pro-Bennett ads to press her advantage.

Shah, Varela, and Roth have argued that Bennett’s lead is a mirage, one that can be overcome once voters learn more about them. All three have invested hundreds of thousands of dollars of their own money into their campaigns, and have spent weeks airing ads introducing themselves to voters; Shah and Roth also have allied super PACs giving them a hand.

To that end, Shah released an internal poll from February – before the district was flooded with ads and mailers – finding that voters knew little about any of the candidates at first, but were most receptive to Shah’s message. After biographies and message testing were read, that poll found Shah leading Bennett 32%-17%.

Bennett’s poll today, however, showed the opposite. Upon hearing positive biographies about each of the candidates (weighted for how much money has been spent to boost them), voters still gave Bennett a 43%-22% lead over Shah.

The Impact Research poll was conducted on behalf of Rebecca Bennett’s campaign from May 11-13 with a sample size of 400 likely Democratic primary voters in New Jersey’s 7th congressional district and a margin of error of +/- 4.9%.