Pou now ‘likely’ to win re-election, per Cook Political Report

Rep. Nellie Pou (D-North Haledon)’s chances of winning re-election are looking better than ever, according to the Cook Political Report, which moved the 9th congressional district from “Lean Democrat” to “Likely Democrat” this afternoon.

Pou did not expect to be a swing-district congresswoman when she was chosen by local Democrats to replace Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-Paterson) in 2024, but Donald Trump’s massive gains in Hispanic communities allowed him to narrowly carry the long-blue 9th district. Then a state senator, Pou only beat an underfunded GOP foe by five points, putting her on GOP target lists for 2026.

Since then, however, Hispanic support for Republicans has collapsed, strengthening the position of Democrats like Pou. In last year’s gubernatorial race, Democrat Mikie Sherrill beat Republican Jack Ciattarelli by nearly 20 points in the 9th district, essentially wiping away all of the GOP’s Trump-era gains.

Given those numbers, CPR’s Erin Covey wrote today, Democrats should feel good about Pou’s chances.

“Although Pou won’t be able to replicate Sherrill’s landslide victory, it’s hard not to see her as the obvious favorite after the district snapped back to Democrats in 2025 – and as an unsettled primary has kept Republicans from turning their full attention to the general election,” Covey wrote.

Two Republicans, attorney Tiffany Burress and Clifton Councilwoman Rosie Pino, are competing for the GOP nomination; both are running serious campaigns, garnering several key endorsements from across the district.

Neither has announced recent fundraising numbers, though, an area in which Pou is likely to retain an advantage for a while to come. As of the end of 2025, Pou had raised almost $1.8 million for her re-election campaign, while Pino had raised $258,000; Burress entered the race after the filing deadline.

With the 9th district moving further from the center of the House playing field, yet more attention may shift to the 7th district, where four Democrats are working to defeat Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-Westfield) in a race CPR deems a Toss Up. Every other district in the state – including some like Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Tenafly)’s 5th district and Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-Dennis)’s 2nd district that might appear competitive on paper – is listed as Solid Democrat or Solid Republican.