Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) has an early – but not overwhelming – lead over First Lady Tammy Murphy in this year’s Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, according to a poll released this morning by Fairleigh Dickinson University.
The poll, the first independent measure of the closely watched contest, gives Kim a 32%-20% advantage against Murphy among potential Democratic primary voters. Incumbent Senator Bob Menendez garners 9% support, while Patricia Campos-Medina (identified by the poll as a “labor activist”) is at 8%; 31% of respondents said they were undecided, and one other notable Democratic candidate, Larry Hamm, was not tested.
Menendez, a three-term incumbent, was indicted on federal corruption charges last fall, triggering an expensive, wide-open campaign to replace him. He has not yet said whether he will seek re-election, though he has strongly implied that he wants to do so – but the race for his seat will continue full steam ahead regardless of his decision.
Next weekend, Kim, Murphy, Campos-Medina, and Hamm will compete at the Monmouth County Democratic convention, the first public test of the four candidates’ support among Democratic party faithful. Murphy has already gotten crucial party endorsements in many of New Jersey’s largest counties, however, which FDU poll director Dan Cassino noted could help her overtake Kim as the campaign continues.
“Generally, institutional support is enough to win a primary in New Jersey,” Cassino said in a release accompanying the poll. “With Murphy down, this election is a test of whether county organizations still have the power to choose a candidate.”
But there also may be more room for Kim to grow, since only 52% of respondents said they’ve heard of him, while 68% said they’ve heard of Murphy. Kim has a sterling approval rating of 38%-2%, with 24% of respondents strongly approving of him; Murphy’s rating is a bit more mixed at 29%-14%.
90% of respondents said they’ve heard of Menendez, and most of what they’ve heard doesn’t seem to be good, since he has a 22%-68% approval rating. Campos-Medina, meanwhile, is still largely unknown, with just 14% of respondents saying they’ve heard of her.
The poll also found substantial racial divides in support for the four candidates – though small sample sizes means that the numbers should be approached with some caution.
Kim has a 47%-15% lead over Murphy among white voters, and a 34%-24% lead among Asian voters (but only 40 Asian voters were polled); Murphy, on the other hand, leads Kim 24%-16% among Black voters and 26%-10% among Hispanic voters. In fact, Kim is in fourth place with Hispanic voters, behind both Menendez and Campos-Medina.
While today’s poll is the first independent survey of the race, Kim’s campaign released two internal polls last year: one from November that found him leading Murphy (who had not yet entered the race when the poll was conducted) 40%-21%, and another from December that put Kim up 45%-22%. The FDU poll isn’t quite as rosy for Kim as those two polls, but it does corroborate the notion that if the election were held today, Kim would likely win.
The real question is whether Murphy’s colossal fundraising abilities and support among the state’s Democratic establishment can close the gap over the next four months. In February 2000, a Quinnipiac poll found former Gov. Jim Florio leading Goldman Sachs executive Jon Corzine 57%-22% in that year’s race for the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. But with most county parties on his side, Corzine went on to win the primary 58%-42%.
The Fairleigh Dickinson University poll was conducted from January 21-28 with a sample size of 504 potential Democratic primary voters, some of whom were chosen from a list of past Democratic primary voters and some of whom were chosen from a random digital dial sample. It has a margin of error of +/- 4.5%.