Every once in a while, there’s an election that makes the other 49 states suddenly pay a huge amount of attention to New Jersey politics. Next year’s explosive race for the United States Senate, with First Lady Tammy Murphy and Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) running for the seat held by indicted Senator Bob Menendez, is definitely one such election.
And with the national spotlight comes a renewed focus on the county organizational line, the unique electoral system that dominates politics in 19 of New Jersey’s 21 counties. Though the mechanics in each county are different, the basics are the same: the county party makes an official endorsement for every office, and then groups its preferred candidates in the same column or row and under the same slogan on primary election ballots.
Within New Jersey politics, the county line, which substantially benefits the candidates who run on it, is a controversial topic. There’s an ongoing federal lawsuit led by progressive groups over the line’s constitutionality, and Kim himself has called for it to be abolished.
Regardless of its merits and drawbacks, though, the line is almost certainly here to stay for the 2024 elections. That means that in the next few months before convention season begins, Kim and Murphy will have to battle for the support of hundreds of local Democratic elected officials and party leaders in an effort to win as many lines as they can.
(They may not be the only ones competing for them; Newark activist Larry Hamm is also in the race, labor leader Patricia Campos-Medina and former U.S. Rep. Tom Malinowski are considering running as well, and Menendez himself has kept people guessing whether he’ll try for another term despite being abandoned by nearly every Democrat in the state. For now, though, Murphy and Kim are clearly the two main candidates in contention.)
Murphy starts out as the clear “establishment” favorite, and in large counties with robust local Democratic organizations, she’s already racking up organizational lines. Several county party chairs have officially endorsed her, with more likely on the way; by the time convention season is over, a majority of registered Democrats will probably have Murphy running on their local county line.
But Kim has some strong areas too, particularly in the four counties he’s represented during his time in Congress. While Kim may be seen both inside and outside the New Jersey political world as the race’s anti-establishment candidate, he stands a reasonable chance of picking up party support in many parts of the state.
Every county’s endorsement process is different. Some have very top-down structures where party leadership decides on the line far in advance; others are more democratic and have open county conventions in the late winter or early spring where every candidate can compete for support from county committeemembers, the thousands of low-level elected party officials who form the building blocks of party organizations in New Jersey. (Not surprisingly, Kim has much better odds in the latter type of county.)
And while the line is a powerful tool, it’s not unbeatable, especially in a high-profile race like this one where most voters will likely make up their minds long before they reach the voting booth. That’s what Kim’s campaign is ultimately counting on, and polling shows he starts out with an advantage among Democratic voters regardless of what party leaders say – but he’ll still want to even the odds as much as possible by fighting for every line he can reasonably win.
Long before any voter touches a primary ballot, the Democratic fight for New Jersey’s Senate seat will be splintered out into 21 individual county-by-county battles, each with their own dynamics and quirks. Here’s where the race stands in every county.
Atlantic County (Atlantic City and its suburbs)
Registered Democrats: 69,622 (2.8% of statewide total)
Endorsement process: Open convention, with influence from the South Jersey Democratic organization
Atlantic County is aligned with the South Jersey Democratic organization, which is backing Murphy – but that doesn’t mean the race for Atlantic Democratic support is over yet.
That’s because, unlike many other South Jersey counties, Atlantic has a vibrant convention every year where any candidate who wants to can make a real bid for the organizational line. Under Chairman Michael Suleiman, county committeemembers will occasionally vote to buck the larger South Jersey Democratic organization and go their own way.
The most prominent recent example of that came in 2020, when South Jersey Democrats wanted Brigid Callahan Harrison as their nominee for the 2nd congressional district, but Atlantic Democrats instead chose Amy Kennedy, whose family had a long lineage in Atlantic politics. Kennedy ended up winning that primary 62%-22%, including a colossal 75%-13% margin in Atlantic County.
This year, Kennedy herself is on Team Murphy, so Kim can’t count on the same coalition that let Kennedy beat the South Jersey machine. Murphy starts out as the favorite for the Atlantic line, but it will probably take some effort on her part to make sure things stay that way.
Bergen County (northern suburbs of NYC)
Registered Democrats: 254,624 (10.2% of statewide total)
Endorsement process: Convention that typically ratifies the preferences of county Democratic Chair Paul Juliano
By far the most important person in deciding the Bergen Democratic line is the county party chairman, Paul Juliano, and he endorsed Murphy just two days after she launched her campaign. In an organization where the county committee almost always goes along with the choices of its leader, that’s probably the end of the story for Kim.
County Democrats do hold a proper convention of county committeemembers, though, so Kim will at least be able to compete for the line, and he may have some supporters among Bergen’s small but lively progressive bloc. (As former Senate Majority Leader Loretta Weinberg can attest, it is at least possible to overcome the county chair’s endorsement at a Bergen convention.)
The real question for Kim in Bergen County – which is home to more than one-tenth of the state’s Democratic voters and which has a verifiably powerful Democratic organization to back up its preferred candidates – is whether it’s worth his time to put up a real fight.
Kim could work to lobby Bergen committeemembers and build up his base of support, but if the end result is that he gets 35% of the vote at a convention instead of 25%, that may not be a wise use of his energy when he could instead be working the phones in more winnable counties or campaigning directly with voters. With only a couple months to go until convention season begins, that’s a tough decision Kim’s campaign will have to make in a number of Murphy-leaning counties.
One other point: Kim is the son of Korean immigrants, and Bergen County is home to one of the country’s largest concentrations of Korean Americans. Even if Kim doesn’t have official party support, he may get a boost from Korean American voters willing to buck the line in favor of the potential first Korean American senator in U.S. history.
Burlington County (northern suburbs of Philadelphia)
Registered Democrats: 139,960 (5.6% of statewide total)
Endorsement process: Open convention, with influence from the South Jersey Democratic organization
Structurally, the Burlington Democratic organization is similar to the Atlantic organization: a semi-autonomous arm of the South Jersey machine with an independent-minded county committee and a relatively open county convention. State Sen. Troy Singleton (D-Delran) and, to a lesser extent, Democratic Chairman Joe Andl have significant influence as well.
But all of the technical details may be moot this year, because Burlington County’s own congressman is one of the candidates running. Burlington County is where Andy Kim grew up, where he continues to live with his family, and where he has built up an unassailable local brand. If anywhere in the state is going to be Kim territory next year, it’s Burlington.
Murphy likely won’t completely abdicate the Burlington line, and her broader institutional support in South Jersey might keep her somewhat competitive. Notably, Andl hasn’t endorsed Kim despite already backing a candidate in the concurrent race for Kim’s congressional seat.
But Kim, who has Singleton’s backing, has garnered tremendous loyalty among rank-and-file Burlington Democrats during his five years in Congress, so it’s hard to see him losing a convention there. Murphy’s best bet may be to try to convince local Democrats to award no line at all and make the Senate race into an open primary – something that Kim has called for doing statewide.
Camden County (Camden and surrounding suburbs)
Registered Democrats: 181,567 (7.3% of statewide total)
Endorsement process: George Norcross’s word is gospel
South Jersey Democratic power broker George Norcross is backing Tammy Murphy, which means that Camden Democratic Chairman James Beach is backing Tammy Murphy, which means that Tammy Murphy has the organizational line in Camden County. In a part of the state not known for small-d democracy, it’s really that simple.
Technically, the Camden Democratic county committee will still meet for a convention, but that’s only a formality to codify what was already decided in the top office months earlier. Kim – who would be the first senator from South Jersey since Robert Hendrickson left office in 1955 – is completely locked out.
Party support in Camden is also worth more than it is in some counties, thanks to an extremely strong local Democratic organization that uses widespread mail-in voting to punch above its weight in both primary and general elections.
That’s something to keep in mind across the state for next year’s primary: not every county line is worth the same amount. While Kim and Murphy will both try to win as many lines as they can, the underlying strength of the local Democratic organization matters as well, and there could be significant variance in results between two counties that made the same official endorsement.
Cape May County (far southern Jersey Shore)
Registered Democrats: 18,476 (0.7% of statewide total)
Endorsement process: Open convention, with influence from the South Jersey Democratic organization
Cape May County is also in South Jersey, but it has a somewhat more progressive, independent county committee. Murphy is favored thanks to her endorsement from South Jersey Democrats and her relationship with Democratic Chairwoman Marie Blistan, a former leader of the New Jersey Education Association; still, Kim could make a real play for support at the county convention.
It’s also worth noting that, in the 2018 Senate primary, Cape May was one of six counties to ditch Menendez in favor of unknown challenger Lisa McCormick, even though Menendez had the line everywhere in the state. (The other five are Hunterdon, Salem, Somerset, Sussex, and Warren; Gloucester supported Menendez by all of 17 votes.) That was of course under highly different circumstances, but it’s at least evidence that some county lines can be overcome.
Cumberland County (Vineland and surrounding rural areas)
Registered Democrats: 32,226 (1.3% of statewide total)
Endorsement process: Convention that typically ratifies the preferences of the South Jersey Democratic organization
Cumberland County is yet another county in the South Jersey Democratic organization, one that generally takes its cues from George Norcross without much protest. That makes Murphy likely to get the line when the convention takes place.
Ultimately, though, counties like Cumberland and Cape May are small enough that who has the line won’t matter too much in a statewide Democratic primary. There are just 50,702 registered Democrats in the two counties combined, making up one-fiftieth of the 2,503,172 Democrats in New Jersey.
Essex County (Newark, plus Montclair and other large suburbs)
Registered Democrats: 296,879 (11.2% of statewide total)
Endorsement process: Decided almost exclusively by county party leaders, mainly county Democratic Chair LeRoy Jones and County Executive Joe DiVincenzo
Essex County has more registered Democrats than anywhere else in New Jersey, and unfortunately for Kim, it also has a very top-down endorsement process.
First, County Democratic Chairman LeRoy Jones consults with County Executive Joe DiVincenzo, and the two most powerful figures in county politics will figure out their preferred slate of candidates. Then, they present those candidates to lower-level party leaders, who pretty much inevitably go along with what their two leaders say and eventually approve their choices at a formal county convention.
Since Jones and DiVincenzo have both publicly said they’re supporting Murphy, this year’s race is settled. Kim’s campaign could still have a strong off-the-line presence in Essex County’s deeply progressive, high-information suburbs like Montclair or South Orange, but party support is off the table.
Gloucester County (southern suburbs of Philadelphia)
Registered Democrats: 84,322 (3.4% of statewide total)
Endorsement process: Whatever Camden County says
Although Gloucester County is ostensibly a separate county from Camden County, in Democratic politics, it certainly doesn’t act that way. County Democratic Chairman Chad Bruner hasn’t publicly endorsed Murphy, but he doesn’t really need to, because the widespread assumption is that he’ll just go along with Camden County.
Combined, Gloucester and Camden’s registered Democrats make up around 10.7% of the statewide total, which would make them the second-largest “county” in the state – another big haul of voters who will find Murphy on their county line next year.
Hudson County (Jersey City and other dense towns close to NYC)
Registered Democrats: 219,429 (8.8% of statewide total)
Endorsement process: The County Executive and 12 mayors gather in a room to decide on their coronations for the year
The prognosis in Hudson County is simple: Tammy Murphy has the line. She’s been endorsed by county Democratic Chair Anthony Vainieri and eleven of the county’s 12 mayors – even Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop, who sometimes breaks with the county party. In Hudson County politics, that’s the ballgame.
Hudson’s support for Murphy is less of a blow for Kim, who never would have gotten support there anyways, than it is for Menendez, a native son of Union City who has long counted on unconditional support from his hometown Democrats. If Menendez was going to get party backing anywhere, it would have been in Hudson County; the fact that local leaders spurned him without a second thought shows just how doomed the senator’s political career is.
The real intrigue in Hudson is in the race for the 8th congressional district, where Rep. Rob Menendez (D-Jersey City) is trying to win re-election against Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla amid his father’s legal difficulties. Hudson Democrats have officially endorsed the younger Menendez, but Fulop isn’t going along, and Bhalla may be able to make the race highly competitive.
That could be a bit of a headache for Murphy, who is ostensibly running against Senator Robert Menendez but who will be paired on the ballot with Congressman Robert Menendez in most of Hudson County. Although Kim won’t be getting party support from Hudson Democrats, the Hudson Democratic line may not be worth as much this year as it usually is.
Hunterdon County (Central Jersey rural and exurban areas)
Registered Democrats: 30,109 (1.2% of statewide total)
Endorsement process: Open convention
Hunterdon County has one of the most democratic Democratic endorsement processes anywhere in the state, featuring a genuinely open convention with little intervention from party leaders. More importantly, it’s also set to be the earliest convention in the state next year, making it a key proving ground for both Kim and Murphy that could help set the tone for the rest of the election.
A win by Kim would prove that, despite top state Democratic leaders going for Murphy, he can still prevail in direct votes of the party faithful. If Murphy wins, on the other hand, that would call into question whether Kim can get official party support anywhere outside of the handful of counties he’s represented in Congress.
Under hands-off Democratic Chairwoman Arlene Quiñones Perez, we likely won’t know what’s going to happen until the votes are tallied next February. And with a competitive primary for the 7th congressional district also underway, Hunterdon Democrats will truly be the center of the New Jersey political universe for a brief while.
(Hunterdon County also had the first convention during the 2020 presidential primaries, and the result was an interesting one: Elizabeth Warren beat Michael Bloomberg by four votes in the final round of voting. If nothing else, that shows that a wide range of candidates have a shot at winning the Hunterdon line.)
Mercer County (Trenton, Princeton, and their suburbs)
Registered Democrats: 118,016 (4.7% of statewide total)
Endorsement process: Open convention
Of all the big, solidly Democratic counties in the state, the only one with a truly open convention is Mercer County. Mercer Democrats control every legislative seat, every countywide office, and virtually every municipal office in the county, but they have maintained a vibrant county convention process that can produce some unexpected results, including nearly ousting a sitting assemblyman earlier this year.
For the last year, Kim has represented nearly half of Mercer County residents in Congress, which gives him something of a home-turf advantage. Then again, Democratic Chairwoman Janice Mironov has quite a bit of influence, and she may be hesitant to break with other top Democrats around the state who are supporting Murphy.
Mercer Democrats also have a rule that allows any candidate who gets more than 40% of the convention vote to appear in the organizational column on primary ballots, even though only the winner gets to use the party slogan. That reduces the true power of winning the “line,” since unless Kim or Murphy can cobble together a 60% supermajority of county committeemembers, the ballot will look basically the same regardless of who wins.
One early harbinger of how Mercer Democrats may be leaning is the Princeton Community Democratic Organization, a progressive group that issues endorsements before the official county convention; they’re emblematic of the type of grassroots progressives Kim will likely need to have a shot at the line.
Middlesex County (New Brunswick, Edison, and surrounding suburbs)
Registered Democrats: 242,713 (9.7% of statewide total)
Endorsement process: Convention that typically ratifies the preferences of county Democratic Chair Kevin McCabe and other county leaders
Middlesex Democratic Chairman Kevin McCabe has endorsed Murphy, which is almost always enough to get the line in Middlesex County. McCabe runs a tight ship, and even though his preferences have to be approved at a convention, loyal county committemembers rarely have a reason to buck him.
Like in Bergen County, Kim’s campaign will have to decide whether it’s worth making an effort at all in Middlesex. They could certainly try to boost their numbers among amenable committeemembers, but unless they somehow see a realistic path to a majority, that time might be better used elsewhere.
Monmouth County (northern Jersey Shore)
Registered Democrats: 140,226 (5.6% of statewide total)
Endorsement process: Open convention
Monmouth County is Murphy’s home county and is partially represented by Kim in Congress, making its open convention another one of the state’s most interesting contests.
It’s also the only place where we already have hard data, thanks to a straw poll of 55 Democratic legislators, mayors, and municipal chairs that was taken earlier this week. In the secret-ballot contest, Kim got 29 votes, Murphy got 13, and 13 were undecided. (Menendez, an eighteen-year incumbent, got zero votes.)
Granted, that came before either candidate really began jostling for support among Monmouth Democrats; in fact, neither of them even knew the poll was happening. Both candidates will have to spend the next few months solidifying their support among the Monmouth rank-and-file; going off of the straw poll, Kim may start with an edge.
Murphy has the support of Rep. Frank Pallone (D-Long Branch), one of Monmouth Democrats’ two highest-profile figures, while State Sen. Vin Gopal (D-Long Branch) has remained neutral so far.
Morris County (Morristown and surrounding suburbs)
Registered Democrats: 116,847 (4.7% of statewide total)
Endorsement process: Open convention
Going off of endorsements, Murphy is probably the favorite to win the line in Morris County; Democratic Chairwoman Amalia Duarte hasn’t made an endorsement, but Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair), Morristown Mayor Tim Dougherty, and Democratic Vice-Chair Mike Delamater are all on Team Tammy.
Then again, Morris is another county with an open convention process that Kim could use to his advantage. Murphy can’t count on getting the party endorsement without working the phones and shoring up her advantage.
Morris Democrats, who hold no countywide or legislative offices in what was until recently a solidly Republican county, also don’t have an especially battle-tested operation when it comes to winning primaries. Even if he doesn’t get party support, Kim’s campaign could overwhelm the Morris Democratic organization off-the-line, and he could even recruit downballot candidates to accompany him on his slate.
That’s another thing to watch for across the state in the next few months: whether Kim tries to build up rival “lines” or simply runs his own solo campaign and trusts voters to split their tickets. The former option is the more typical way to win off-the-line in New Jersey, but Kim isn’t running a typical New Jersey campaign.
Ocean County (central Jersey Shore, including Lakewood and Toms River)
Registered Democrats: 98,341 (3.9% of statewide total)
Endorsement process: Open convention
Ocean County is a true wild card in New Jersey politics. It’s a solidly Republican county that is nevertheless big enough to be home to 4% of the state’s Democratic voters, and Ocean Democrats aren’t really part of any broader coalition or organization; Democratic Chairman Wyatt Earp, much like his historical predecessor, doesn’t take orders from anyone.
It’s also a county where many local Democrats are hugely loyal to Kim, who represented around half of the county until redistricting shifted his district last year and who is still remembered as the one Democrat who bothered to show up in their towns. Murphy could still make a play for party support, but she’d have a lot of work to do to convince Ocean Democrats to snub their beloved ex-congressman.
Passaic County (Paterson and surrounding suburbs)
Registered Democrats: 127,639 (5.1% of statewide total)
Endorsement process: Screening process that typically ratifies the preferences of Democratic Chair John Currie
In order to compete for the line in Passaic County, you have to appear before a screening committee that consists of Democratic Chairman John Currie and the county’s municipal chairs, and convince the party leaders to endorse you. That might give the illusion that it’s more democratic than it really is; usually, Currie will just state his preferences, and his party subordinates will fall in line.
For next year’s Senate race, Currie has already publicly said that Murphy is his choice. Kim can still go before the screening committee, but he shouldn’t expect a favorable result.
Salem County (southwestern rural areas)
Registered Democrats: 14,484 (0.6% of statewide total)
Endorsement process: No organizational line; party endorsement is awarded at a convention that typically ratifies the preferences of the South Jersey Democratic organization
Tiny Salem County is probably the most irrelevant county in the state when it comes to statewide primaries. Not only does it have just 14,484 registered Democratic voters – fewer than the township of Maplewood – it also doesn’t have a county line at all, with candidates appearing on the ballot as equals.
The county Democratic Party does still award an endorsement, though, which gives candidates access to the official party slogan on the ballot. Given that Salem typically falls in line with the rest of the South Jersey organization, the slogan should go to Murphy.
Somerset County (Central Jersey suburbs and exurbs)
Registered Democrats: 90,447 (3.6% of statewide total)
Endorsement process: Open convention
Somerset Democratic Chairwoman Peg Schaffer has endorsed Murphy, which has led some news outlets to act as though the county line has already been decided. That’s not quite accurate, though, in a county that holds proper conventions and has a fairly progressive Democratic county committee.
Schaffer, the vice-chair of the state Democratic Party, certainly has immense influence as the woman chiefly responsible for leading her party to complete control over county government after decades in the wilderness. But she, and the Murphy campaign, will have to put in some work to make sure her endorsement at the top trickles down to the county committeemembers who will ultimately award the line.
Sussex County (northwestern rural areas)
Registered Democrats: 26,393 (1.1% of statewide total)
Endorsement process: No organizational line; party endorsement is awarded at open convention
Sussex County, like Salem County, only has a party endorsement rather than a proper organizational line. It also has a brand-new Democratic chair, 23-year-old Zoe Heath, who took the reins of the county party in July and who hails from the more progressive wing of an often bitterly divided organization.
Both Kim and Murphy will be able to compete at the wide-open Sussex convention as equals. But without many registered Democrats or an organizational line to compete for, the stakes are relatively low.
Union County (Elizabeth and surrounding suburbs)
Registered Democrats: 177,756 (7.1% of statewide total)
Endorsement process: Each of the 21 municipal Democratic chairs gets one vote; they typically ratify the preferences of county Democratic Chair Nick Scutari
Union Democrats have a process unlike anywhere else in the state. Each of the county’s 21 Democratic municipal chairs – from Maria Carvalho in Elizabeth (pop. 137,298) to Margaret McManus in Winfield (pop. 1,423) – gets one vote, with the county line going to whoever can cobble together a majority of the 21.
Functionally, though, the endorsement process is usually more centralized than that. The municipal chairs tend to go along with Democratic Chairman Nick Scutari, who is also the President of the New Jersey State Senate – and Scutari is likely to back Murphy. Unless Kim can peel off enough municipal chairs to make it a real race (which, realistically, he can’t), that’s all she wrote.
Warren County (northwestern rural areas)
Registered Democrats: 23,056 (0.9% of statewide total)
Endorsement process: Open convention
Like their fellow Democratic organizations in deep-red counties, Warren Democrats tend to be a more progressive bunch, and Kim and Murphy will both be able to compete for support at the county convention. Democratic Chair Tom Palmieri has quite a bit of influence, so if he makes an endorsement that may sway things early on.
Back in 2016, Warren County was one of two counties in the state that voted for Bernie Sanders over Hillary Clinton for president; the other was Sussex County. Once again, though, Warren is small enough that the county line there will only matter if the statewide race between Kim and Murphy is extremely close.
Where does that leave things?
Combining the four counties where things are truly, 100% over – Essex, Hudson, Passaic, and Camden – already gets Murphy to 36% of the statewide Democratic electorate. Throw on Bergen, Middlesex, and Gloucester, and she reaches 1,491,495 Democratic primary voters – nearly 60% of the state total – for whom she’s likely to appear on the county line.
Kim’s task over the next several months will be to chip away at the remainder as much as he can. Even if he’s locked out of party support in most of the state, running on the line in, say, eight counties would give him much better odds of winning than if he was stuck off-the-line everywhere.
The battle over county lines remains very much in flux, and new endorsements or developments could reshape the race extremely quickly. How much money each candidate can raise, which major endorsers each pulls in, and what Menendez decides to do will all have impacts that are impossible to handicap.
And of course, organizational lines are only half the battle in a high-profile, expensive race where most voters likely won’t be relying only on the line to tell them how to vote. Murphy could get the line nearly everywhere, but if Kim’s campaign is more effective at convincing actual voters to support him, then New Jersey could end up looking at its first off-the-line statewide victory in a long, long time.
But that’s still a long ways off. For now, Murphy and Kim – and anyone else who wants to be New Jersey’s next senator – need to attend potlucks, hit the phones, and start building connections with the obscure party leaders who call the shots in New Jersey politics, for better or for worse.