After super PAC’s ad blitz, Hamawy internal poll puts him in the lead

DISCLAIMER: Polls can be a helpful tool for understanding elections, but they are an imperfect one, as demonstrated by New Jersey’s three most recent statewide general elections, all of which had results substantially different from what nearly every pollster had projected. Poll results should be treated as data points and guideposts in complex elections, not as ironclad predictions of what will happen; the same is doubly true for internal polls, which are conducted with a specific agenda and candidate in mind.

Just a month ago, Adam Hamawy, a plastic surgeon and Army veteran, was virtually unknown to the voters of the 12th congressional district. Now, with three weeks left until the Democratic primary – and following a pro-Hamawy ad blitz from a friendly super PAC – he might be the race’s frontrunner, per an internal poll shared with the New Jersey Globe by his campaign.

According to the poll, which was conducted by Workbench Strategy from May 5 through May 7, Hamawy has the support of 19% of 12th district Democrats, the most of any candidate in the highly splintered field to succeed Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman (D-Ewing).

Running behind him are Sue Altman, Senator Andy Kim’s former state director, with 12%; Brad Cohen, the mayor of East Brunswick, with 11%; and Verlina Reynolds-Jackson, a state assemblywoman from Trenton, with 10%. Five other candidates – Shanel Robinson, Sam Wang, Squire Servance, Adrian Mapp, and Jay Vaingankar – were named in the poll but all received less than 10% support; three other candidates who will appear on the ballot were not named.

That’s a sea change from a prior, unreleased internal poll conducted from March 30 through April 1. In that poll, Reynolds-Jackson was in the lead with 16%, followed by Altman with 12% and Cohen with 11%, while Hamawy was far behind with 5%.

Hamawy’s favorability ratings also skyrocketed between the polls, from 11% to 40%. (Two percent of Democratic voters had an unfavorable view of him in March; that number is now 7%.)

What explains such a huge shift in the race? The likeliest answer is American Priorities, a brand-new super PAC dedicated to supporting pro-Palestine congressional candidates like Hamawy and serving as a counterweight to the better-known American Israel Public Affairs Committee. American Priorities has reported spending $1 million on pro-Hamawy ads so far, and it’s pledged to spend as much as $2 million on the race overall.

That kind of spending has not been remotely matched so far by any of Hamawy’s opponents, many of whom barely have the resources to even air ads in the district. If Hamawy’s opponents begin getting their own messages out to voters – and, perhaps more importantly, if other deep-pocketed super PACs get involved – his advantage might lessen.

Then again, even without super PAC support, Hamawy is the best-funded candidate in the race, and he’s begun to assemble a formidable coalition of national progressive supporters, including Senator Bernie Sanders and Justice Democrats. Most local endorsements from within the district have gone to more established politicians like Cohen, Reynolds-Jackson, and Robinson.

The winner of the June 2 primary is almost certain to be the next member of Congress from the district, which covers a diverse span of Central Jersey and which typically votes overwhelmingly for Democrats.

The two Workbench Strategy polls were conducted on behalf of Adam Hamawy’s campaign from March 30-April 1 and May 5-7; both had sample sizes of 400 likely Democratic primary voters in New Jersey’s 12th congressional district and margins of error of +/- 4.89%.