Stomping Grounds: Governor’s Race — and debate advice

New Jerseyans aren’t always civil, but it’s still possible for a liberal Democrat and a conservative Republican to have a rational and pleasant conversation about politics in the state. Dan Bryan is a former senior advisor to Gov. Phil Murphy and is now the owner of his own public affairs firm, and Alex Wilkes is an attorney and former executive director of America Rising PAC who advises Republican candidates in New Jersey and across the nation, including the New Jersey GOP. Dan and Alex are both experienced strategists who are currently in the room where high-level decisions are made. They get together weekly with New Jersey Globe editor David Wildstein to discuss politics and issues.

How do you view the state of the race for Governor in both primaries?

Alex Wilkes: It’s interesting to watch because so much of my political life has been defined by internecine fights in my own party, so having things be (relatively) quiet on the homefront in this primary is pretty…strange. Of course, it helps to have a President who is wildly popular with the base in the state. For the Republicans, I think that the President’s endorsement of Jack Ciattarelli pretty much puts a bow (a big, beautiful bow), on a campaign that diligently raised and spent money on paid media and paired that with a strong grassroots campaign. Nothing is ever over until the last vote is cast, but I think President Trump weighing in allows Jack to approach this debate with a confident, positive attitude, and allow – like he did in the last debate – Jon Bramnick and Bill Spadea to basically debate each other into oblivion. 

For the Democrats? WOW, do I love this clown car after years of having to deal with candidates going through their own public nervous breakdowns, midlife crises, and cringeworthy moments that embarrassed us all. For once, Democrats are on defense for positions that are way outside the mainstream and having to navigate this time in the political wilderness without the safety blanket of “The Line.” I would say it’s a jump ball, and while I would never bet against a voter registration advantage and millions of dollars in public sector union money at their disposal, I think all of the Democrats have glaring vulnerabilities in the general election.

Dan Bryan: Honestly, it’s been a far sleepier primary than many were expecting or hoping for. Whether it’s because of the lack of New Jersey media or Trump’s dominance of almost every daily news cycle, this election cycle has felt pretty flat. But not everyone is upset about that.

Let’s start with the easy one first: the Republican primary is over. Ciattarelli was going to win anyway, but Trump’s endorsement sealed the deal. I’ll be watching on election night anyway just to enjoy Bill Spadea’s concession speech.

The Democratic primary is still far from over, and it has been a far more robust contest than on the Republican side. But recently, Mikie Sherrill has begun to separate herself from the pack, building her modest but steady lead into something more daunting. She also has the most money left to close with.

It’s not over yet, but it’s getting late. Candidates that want to put themselves in striking distance by election day need to show movement now.

What’s your advice to the Democratic gubernatorial candidates when they take the debate stage on Sunday evening?  What do Ras Baraka, Steve Fulop, Josh Gottheimer, Mikie Sherrill and Steve Sweeney need to accomplish?

Dan: I laid out my evergreen debate advice here. 

Past that, candidates in Sunday’s debate should try to create a few moments for their teams to clip and share through their social channels that tie the themes of their campaigns together and tell the story of why they’re running. 

We’re in the home stretch – get back to basics and make your case directly to voters.

Alex: Let’s assume that this is ultimately a contest among Baraka, Fulop, and Sherrill. Spiller didn’t make the cut, Sweeney has to keep apologizing for offending the far left of his party, and Gottheimer won’t be able to punch through without his AI-generated six-pack. 

Baraka has to be all heart and remind Democrats why they want their own version of “bold colors” and not “pale pastels” fighting for them in November. He has no credentials outside of charging a federal immigration detention center, so he shouldn’t suddenly lean into the electability argument that he can’t win. He needs to turn himself into the martyr, make all of the candidates pledge their undying loyalty for his act of “bravery,” and immediately frame the debate on his terms. If he’s the Democrats’ “bold colors,” my God, has there ever been a pastel paler than AI-generated Mikie Sherrill? She is running on pure biography, so she needs to put that to greater use in credible ways (i.e. “As a mom,” or as someone “who’s served in the military”). At a time when both parties are bucking the status quo, she is in the unfortunate position of having been claimed as the establishment pick from the beginning. Maybe that’s all she needs–but that’s not how our politics have been trending as of late. If she goes into this unprepared or unwilling to dismantle some of her opponents, I think that is a very dangerous strategy. 

The candidate I’ll be watching with the most interest is Fulop. If the top three here can basically bully the other two off the stage, he might be able to make that middle lane work for him. Essentially, he needs to show that he’s the right blend of Baraka’s heart and Mikie’s pragmatism. That should be do-able enough with his skill. But what I’m really looking for is will one of the “also-rans” use their dying political breath to beat the hell out of him? Could we see something like Tulsi Gabbard on the Democratic debate stage in 2019 excoriate Kamala Harris so badly that she dropped out before Iowa? Pop me some popcorn. 

What’s your advice to the Republican  gubernatorial candidates when they take the debate stage on Sunday evening?  What do Jon Bramnick, Jack Ciattarelli and Bill Spadea need to accomplish?

Alex: At the last Republican debate, it was clear that Jack was a comfortable spectator in a ping pong match between Bill Spadea and Jon Bramnick. Jack now just has to do no harm, but I suspect that both the Spadea and Bramnick campaigns will advise their candidates to charge hard at Jack to make their final case.* That will be pretty tough with the President’s endorsement. For one, Spadea will have a difficult time explaining why he did not receive the nod without personally impugning the President, and to the extent that Bramnick then makes this a choice between “MAGA” and “moderate,” his attacks from the left will only embolden Jack’s supporters and maybe even give bummed out Spadea supporters a reason to back Jack.

*If their goal is to win the primary. Call me cynical, but that might not be everyone’s end game…

}Dan: Jack Ciattarelli should do no harm in this debate. He doesn’t need to answer to Bill Spadea’s insanity anymore, because the primary is over. He may as well show up with a sleeping cap and an eye mask.

I’m very interested to see how Bill Spadea approaches this debate. Does he continue to attack Jack Ciattarelli, or does he tone it down, now that it’s clear Jack will be the Republican nominee? 

Any advice for the debate moderators? 

Dan: Keep the conversation moving, and don’t let the debate devolve into petty squabbling and talking over each other. Monday’s Spotlight debate, which was only an hour, felt much longer with candidates interjecting and lobbing personal attacks at each other. Two and a half hours of that would be grating.

Also, please keep the green room stocked with snacks and make sure the Mets/Yankees game is on.

Alex: I think the two debates hosted by NJ Globe and some of our other partners have been very fairly executed and moderated, but I could see some of the candidates, who have become desperate and angry, try to turn their firepower on you in a misguided attempt to break through the noise. It’s a strategy that really only works for Republicans when they (rightfully, in many cases) feel that a debate against a Democrat has become 2 on 1 because of mainstream media bias. Based on the last two debates, that won’t be the case with this crew, so while they can reject the premise of a question or try to sidestep one, a shot at the process will feel pretty lame. If the questions are straightforward and fair, remain firm and don’t get drawn into their downward spiral. 

Editor’s note: Watch Dan Bryan and Alex Wilkes on the Pre-Debate and Post Debate shows.