GOP continues gains on Dems in last voter registration update

Republican voter registrants nearly tripled Democratic sign-ups in October, according to data released today.

Republicans gained 16,945 registrants last month, compared to 6,015 for Democrats. Republicans have gained ground on Democrats in recent months, and Democrats now outnumber Republicans by about 906,000.

Notably, unaffiliated registrants outnumbered both parties last month, with 44,484 new registrants. Obviously, it’s difficult to predict how they may vote.

Democrats now comprise 37.7% of registered voters, while Republicans account for 24.2% of statewide registrants. Those rates are similar to last month’s — with more than 6.7 million registered voters in the state, making a dent in the overall composition takes a lot.

The last day to register to vote in Tuesday’s election was Oct. 15. Friday’s voter registration update is the last before the election.

Zooming in on NJ-7

All eyes are on New Jersey’s 7th congressional district, which many consider to be the only truly competitive federal election in the state (as well as one of the most competitive in the country).

Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-Westfield) is facing a challenge from Sue Altman in a contest that has received significant amounts of outside spending.

The 7th district gained almost 5,000 registrants in October. Unaffiliated voter registrants accounted for 3,081 sign-ups in the district, a clear majority. Democrats gained 446 registrants and Republicans gained 1,243 — reason enough for Republicans to be hopeful, while still keeping in mind the new unaffiliated voters could vote any which way.

In the 7th, registered Democrats comprise 30.5% of the electorate, while Republicans make up 33.6% of the electorate. Neither party can operate without the consent of unaffiliated voters, who make up a plurality of 34.8% of voters in the district.

Here’s how the district was composed at this point in 2022: 30.7% Democratic, 33.4% Republican, and 34.8% unaffiliated. Republicans have made the slightest of dents, sure, but the electorate is largely unchanged in terms of partisanship when compared to 2022.

(Comparing to 2020 or prior would be apples-to-oranges, given redistricting.)

There are no hidden indicators in this data as to who may triumph (nor are there known indicators in advanced voting data, for that matter). The answer will only start to avail itself Tuesday night. Tune in.

Looking Back

Before we go, let’s take a big-picture glance at voter registration data in presidential election years.

Comparing this month’s data to 2020, one can see the not-insignificant ground Republicans have made up on Democrats.

In 2020, Democrats made up 38.9% of voters, compared to 37.7% today. Republicans comprised 22.3% of the electorate four years ago, but they’re up to 24.2% today.

The 1.08 million-voter lead Democrats held at this point four years ago is now down to about 900,000. Those numbers aren’t necessarily zeitgeist-changing, but they do show a trend that has shown few signs of stopping.

Democrats can take solace in the fact that they’re better situated now than they were in 2016, at least according to voter registration numbers.

At this point in 2016, Democrats made up 35.6% of registered voters. The Trump era ushered in years of strong voter registration for Democrats, which perhaps gave the party an unsustainable lead to begin with.