Stomping Grounds: Sherrill’s win; Trump; Republicans; Advice for Mikie

New Jerseyans aren’t always civil, but it’s still possible for a liberal Democrat and a conservative Republican to have a rational and pleasant conversation about politics in the state. Dan Bryan is a former senior advisor to Gov. Phil Murphy and is now the owner of his own public affairs firm, and Alex Wilkes is an attorney and former executive director of America Rising PAC who advises Republican candidates in New Jersey and across the nation, including the New Jersey GOP. Dan and Alex are both experienced strategists who are currently in the room where high-level decisions are made. They will get together weekly with New Jersey Globe editor David Wildstein – or, this week, with New Jersey Globe Washington reporter Joey Fox – to discuss politics and issues.

Mikie Sherrill was elected governor of New Jersey by about 14 points and a margin of nearly 450,000 votes.  This was supposed to be a close race.  How did it become a landslide?

Dan Bryan: The three people responsible for last Tuesday’s election results, in order, are: Mikie Sherrill, Donald Trump, and Jack Ciattarelli.

Most importantly, Mikie and her team ran an excellent campaign. From the outset, they knew they had a special candidate, and ran a values- and bio-driven campaign focused on fighting back against the chaotic and destructive actions coming out of Washington.

But running a statewide campaign in New Jersey isn’t easy. In the face of constant criticism and skepticism, they ran with confidence, purpose, and consistency. They didn’t blink when Jack threw wild, irresponsible accusations her way, and answered wild haymakers with strategic punches. 

But there’s more to these results than just a great candidate and campaign from the winner, and we’d be crazy not to look at the role President Trump played. He has never been more unpopular – he’s kicking millions off of Medicare, hiking rates for the rest of us, and personally enriching himself and his cronies while Americans suffer under a cost of living crisis. People are fed up, and they took out their frustrations at the ballot box.

Finally, Jack Ciattarelli didn’t do himself any favors. He clearly felt like his only path was the MAGA path, but that was a decision that was doomed from the start. Rather than make a play for voters in the middle, Jack and his team ran right, grasping for a majority that doesn’t exist in New Jersey. There is no constituency for supplication in New Jersey, especially to an unpopular President.

None of this takes an ounce of credit from Governor-elect Sherrill and her team – they earned every bit of their 14 point win, and they deserve the mandate New Jersey voters just delivered to them.

Alex Wilkes: From the outset, I acknowledged that Jack faced an uphill battle because of the Democrats’ natural advantages here – voter registration, organized labor, automatic VBM, an avalanche of special interest money – but that we still had a possible path through turning out our lower propensity voters on Election Day. No campaign, of course, wants to rely on that, but that’s what we had at the end. When you take into account the vote-by-mail ballots, early voting, and Election Day turnout, Republicans actually had a solid turnout for a gubernatorial year.

What we could not have anticipated (although many of us silently feared) is that Democrats would pair their pre-Election Day firewall with a presidential-level turnout on Election Day. While the GOP has undoubtedly made gains in terms of narrowing the voter registration gap, getting hit with presidential turnout in a state with this many Democrats isn’t just a blow; it’s a knockout punch.

I think this unprecedented turnout was accelerated largely in the final weeks of the campaign. Up and until mid-September, internal polls showed the close, winnable race. When you suffer a defeat this large, it’s difficult to point to any one factor that was the definitive cause. The exit polls tell a story of voters with a tremendous economic anxiety and a desire to put a “check” on Washington. Again, while you can’t really isolate one cause, and Democrats were already heading into this contest with an advantage, it’s not difficult to conclude that a Republican administration and government shutdown in Washington dominating the news not only motivated lower propensity Democrats, but it also swung unaffiliated voters in the end.

Let’s talk more about the impact of President Donald Trump on New Jersey politics.  What does Trump mean for congressional and down-ballot candidates in 2026?

Alex: Well, when you consider the fact that the same voters sent a very different message just one year ago, I think it would be a mistake for both Democrats to overread these results and Republicans to underestimate them.

When Joe Biden pumped a trillion dollars of inflationary spending into the economy during his term, we knew that the impact on prices and homebuying would be cataclysmic for years to come. But that doesn’t matter to voters. Voters care about who is in charge right now.

To that end, Republicans did deliver on historic middle-class tax cuts that not only helped families on childcare costs and Americans avoid taxes on tips, overtime, and Social Security, but it also, more specifically for this state, provided significant relief on SALT – a big-ticket item that Democrats could not deliver on during their time in office. So, some of it does go back to the old idea, that most of politics is: what have you done for me lately?

I do think that voters’ opinions about President Trump are largely locked in, although this election showed how an acute event in Washington, like the government shutdown, could exacerbate existing anger. In terms of our congressional delegation, I do think that it’s encouraging that Jack managed to hold onto our “swingiest” seat in NJ-07. Given how wildly opinions have shifted in the past year, though, I am genuinely reluctant to extrapolate these results to the 2026 midterms. In general, however, Republicans need to be on offense talking directly to voters about the matters that affect them the most – housing, prices, healthcare, and childcare – and not let Democrats take control of a narrative they have no business owning.

Dan: Not only does 2026 look a whole lot like 2018, it may look even better.

In President Trump’s first term, there seemed to be at least an attempt to run the government amidst the eternal chaos. Now, he and his team are fully focused on delivering retribution and lining their pockets, all while Americans suffer. Instead of extending the ACA subsidies, he’s more interested in knocking down half the White House to build a catering hall that looks like it belongs on Route 17.

Now, not only is CD7 in play in 2026, Tom Kean may enter his reelection year as the underdog. CD11 and CD9 both look safe, and even CD2 may be in play!

It is an astonishing collapse from a party that retook all levers of power in DC just twelve short months ago.

With 23 Republicans left in the State Assembly and three Republican congressmen, is New Jersey a Blue State or a Purple state? 

Alex: This is a great question for Sam Wang of the Princeton Gerrymandering Project, whose data and inappropriate communications during redistricting, cut legislative and congressional districts in such absurd ways that the lack of competitive seats make the Democrats’ legislative dominance appear stronger than it actually is. Even in a blowout, no-good, awful, terrible year, the fact that Republicans can score over 40% of the statewide vote but have just a quarter of the Assembly demonstrates that. Republicans have been making steady gains from the municipal level on up since 2019, and it will certainly take time for us to undo some of the collateral damage of this year, but I believe that the past two elections showed us that we do have swing voters whose opinions can neither be dismissed by Republicans nor be totally erased by the Democrats’ structural advantages.

Dan: I think the question isn’t whether or not New Jersey is a blue or purple state – it’s whether or not New Jersey has more than one functional state political party.

The NJGOP has not won a statewide election since 2013. Despite all of their bluster over the past few years, they also haven’t made a dent at the Legislative, County, or local level in any meaningful way. I don’t know when they hired Rich Kotite to run their state party, but I fully support it. Why would anyone take them seriously the next time they claim they have a statewide path to victory?

And let’s remember, New Jersey Republicans agreed to this Legislative map in 2022! The map they cosigned just led to a 57-23 Democratic majority, leaving one to wonder what, exactly, they were doing at the negotiation table.

If I were a Republican, I’d argue to clean house in the party. But as a Democrat, I’d like to say that I like you just the way you are, NJGOP. Never change.

What’s your advice to Governor-elect Sherrill as she prepares to take office on January 20?

Alex: Use your “mandate” (even if much of it appears to be anti-Washington, rather than pro-Mikie) for real structural and economic reform in this state – even if it makes it harder for us, the Republicans, to run against in 2027 and 2029.

It’s not a giant leap for Democrats to come to the conclusion that when ZOHRAN MAMDANI is complimenting how high our corporate taxes are that we might have an affordability problem in this state. Over the years, Democrats have maxed us out. There’s no more juice to squeeze, and the budget will be here before you know it.

Mikie has the ability – if she has the will and the courage – to really take on costs of county government and an untenable number of municipalities and school districts. She can follow the model of other Democrat-led states in the northeast with top level reform that eases up the tax burden on families and businesses – all while keeping the liberal social agenda that will make the people of Montclair proud. Is that my desired outcome? Of course not, but it sure beats the status quo that’s beating us all down.

Dan: I don’t think Governor-elect Sherrill or her team need any advice from me. But this is the one piece of advice I give to any elected official: stay on the side of the people, not on the side of the bureaucracy, both in message and in substance.

Here’s a small example: the day after NJ TRANSIT botched train service after WWE’s Wrestlemania at Metlife in 2019, Governor Murphy held an unrelated press conference. We knew he’d be asked about it – famously, he had brought NJT back from the brink of collapse when he took office two years earlier, but it still wasn’t (and isn’t) as reliable as it should be. 

When asked by the press about NJT’s failures, Governor Murphy didn’t make excuses (he could have – WWE went far past their allotted time, and NJT was left in a bind). He said, simply, that he would have been “crazed” if it had happened to him, and that NJT’s explanations were the “dog at my homework” type of unacceptable excuses. He finished by saying “I’ll be damned if it happens again.” (Though NJT still has a long way to go, their event management at Metlife Stadium has gotten light years better since.)

Had the Governor answered on the defensive, blamed others, or made excuses, he would have been rightfully pilloried. Instead, he channeled the frustrations and anger of commuters, showing them that if they think they were pissed off about what happened, they had nothing on how pissed off he was. He took the side of New Jerseyans, not the side of the bureaucracy. His response diffused the situation. 

So in other words: no one is in office to defend the institution, they are there to deliver for the people that voted them into office. If they allow space to grow between them and the electorate, or make people feel like you care more about the bureaucracy than you do about delivering results for them, they can quickly lose the thread.