New Jerseyans aren’t always civil, but it’s still possible for a liberal Democrat and a conservative Republican to have a rational and pleasant conversation about politics in the state. Dan Bryan is a former senior advisor to Gov. Phil Murphy and is now the owner of his own public affairs firm, and Alex Wilkes is an attorney and former executive director of America Rising PAC who advises Republican candidates in New Jersey and across the nation. Dan and Alex are both experienced strategists who are currently in the room where high-level decisions are made. They will get together weekly with New Jersey Globe editor David Wildstein to discuss politics and issues.
New Jersey Globe: The House passed legislation this week to raise the nation’s debt limit through next year. Who is the winner: Joe Biden or Kevin McCarthy? And by November 2023, when New Jerseyans go to the polls for the mid-term elections, will any of them care about this vote?
Dan Bryan: I’m not sure people will be thinking about the debt ceiling vote in November, but I do think it’s yet another example of competent leadership from the Biden administration. This is the same administration that’s been able to pass infrastructure legislation, COVID funding, gun safety legislation, and now a (mostly) clean debt ceiling bill, all with a congress that most Americans feel is deeply broken.
The Biden administration hasn’t done everything right, but their handling of Congress and Senate has been nothing less than masterful.
I’ll also say that it was a good moment for Speaker McCarthy, who early on looked like he had no control over the vast majority of his caucus. He delivered a bill that came as close to a clean debt ceiling bill as Democrats could have hoped for, which was far more competent and responsible than I thought he was capable of. So I’ll be fair and recognize that it was a good moment for all involved.
Alex Wilkes: I think Speaker McCarthy is undoubtedly the winner here. The bill doesn’t have everything on our wish list, but that’s also the reality of governing with a single-digit majority in one chamber. There are still plenty of ways a Republican majority can challenge the Biden agenda through the legislative process.
Back in January, naysayers predicted that if the Speaker elections didn’t do McCarthy in, the debt ceiling fight surely would. Instead, McCarthy showed early in the process that he could unite the conference on a proposal and force spending cuts out of Joe Biden. The latter alone feels like a miracle, since there seems to be no end to the Democrats’ endless appetite for drowning future generations of Americans in debt.
I don’t think it would have been a tipping point in the midterms either way, but it does take away from a general Democratic narrative that Republicans are more interested in fighting rather than governing, giving cover to Republicans in more competitive seats.
NJ Globe: According to a recent Rutgers-Eagleton poll, 53% of New Jerseyans haven’t heard anything about the state budget and another 23% only know a little bit. How is it that the electorate is so uninformed?
Alex: I think what that shows is the result of a dense policy matter combined with the limited media coverage we have here in the Garden State.
Believe me: I would love it if more New Jerseyans knew more about Phil Murphy’s plans to spend more money we don’t have.
The reality is that these budget battles at both the state and national level don’t tend to reach people until it reaches an extreme or touches them personally (i.e. Social Security checks not going out, parks and beaches closed during a government shutdown, etc.).
Dan: I’d be interested to see what those numbers were a few decades ago when we had a stronger media ecosystem – I bet they weren’t much higher. Alex is right that people generally don’t check in on the state budget process unless there’s drama, like the shutdowns in 2017 and 2006.
But I do think New Jerseyans generally know about our state’s fiscal shape, and what Governor Murphy has done to right it. It’s well known that our pension system was one of the most insolvent in the country, and the Murphy Administration has done amazing work making the first full pension payments in decades and putting our system on the path to solvency. I believe that level of fiscal responsibility is penetrating, and it does matter.
NJ Globe: A Lakewood rabbi convicted of money laundering is getting a new trial after a state appellate court affirmed that the deputy attorney general, John Nicodemo, withheld evidence that might have exonerated him at a trial three years ago. At what point should a prosecutor who violates the Brady Rule or other be held accountable?
Dan: No one is above the law. If a deputy attorney general willfully abuses their power, they should be held accountable.
That said, I’ve been around long enough to know that these situations usually contain more than meets the eye. There are few people I trust more in this state than our current Attorney General, and as much as I respect the judge’s ruling, if the AG’s office is appealing it there may be more to the story. I’ll let the legal process play out.
Alex: A Brady violation is a serious abuse of government power, so I think the Appellate Court was generally right to send a clear signal in what may have been a gray area.
Despite Nancy Pelosi’s claims to the contrary, the accused in a criminal matter does not have to “prove innocence,” but rather, the burden is on the State to make their case. It’s why our Rules of Evidence and Criminal Procedure typically give deference to defendants against potentially coercive state power. In our trial by Twitter society, we often see people lose sight of these foundational principles.
I generally trust the judiciary to monitor and review attorney misconduct, but nothing is stopping the Murphy administration from also looking into a serious charge in their own Attorney General’s office.
NJ Globe: Over 200,000 votes have already been cast for Tuesday’s primary election, with three days of early voting beginning today. Any final thoughts?
Alex: What active Republican primaries this cycle tell me is that our voters don’t just have a pulse in an off-year, but rather, they are actively thinking about the November elections and their role as agents of the change we so desperately want.
I think that stands in stark contrast to the Democrats who don’t appear to be as excited at this point in the cycle. In fact, the Democrats look so bored, they’ve started to come play in our races this June! Their primary contests aren’t bringing in new energy and talent, and I think that says something ahead of a highly competitive general election.
Dan: Republicans are in danger of becoming completely and totally irrelevant in New Jersey. In 2021, a historically good election for the Republican party, they picked up just a handful of legislative seats, putting just a small dent in Democrats’ majorities, and lost the gubernatorial election by a comfortable margin.
So as much as it’s on Democrats to show that they’re able to win in an off-year election in which they have a trifecta in Trenton, it’s on Republicans to show that they can run competent, well-funded elections throughout the state. They can’t rely on lightning-in-a-bottle candidates like Ed Durr every time, and candidate recruitment and fundraising have both clearly shown a Democratic party advantage.
If Republicans can’t show some signs of life and win a few legislative seats this November, when will they?
NJ Globe: As we all know, Alex is ready to give birth to her second child any minute now. You’re already a few years into two. Any advice for her, including names?
Dan: Here’s a hot take: the jump from one kid to two is absolutely more difficult than the jump from no kids to one. So I look forward to finally being on equal mental health footing with Alex in the coming years.
But seeing my two daughters playing together, teaming up together, and even resolving conflicts with one another has been the most rewarding experience of my life. There is nothing better, and I am so happy for Alex and her family to get to experience it.
Though I was only casually consulted on names (I had about as much authority in the process as the nurse did), I will just say not to overthink it. If you like a name, go for it. And since I had two girls, if Alex has a boy, I’d happily let her name it after her Stomping Grounds partner.
Any chance we’ll see Phil or Tammy Wilkes?
Alex: Of course I have some third-trimester snark just dying to be written here, but I can’t in good conscience let that be how I end this week’s column before a major life event. I can confirm that it is neither Phil nor Tammy. Wish us luck!
Editor’s Note: We’re all looking forward to the upcoming announcement by Alex and Charlie Wilkes. Glad they voted by mail, just in case.
RELATED ARTICLES
-
March 16, 2020 -
June 6, 2022 -
March 30, 2020