Kim way ahead in Dem Senate primary, poll from friendly group finds

Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) starts out with a big advantage in the 2024 Democratic primary for U.S. Senate according to a new poll released this morning by End Citizens United, a national group that’s supporting Kim.

The poll, which was conducted by the liberal pollster Public Policy Polling, finds that in a head-to-head between Kim and incumbent Senator Bob Menendez, Kim has a dominant 63%-10% lead among likely Democratic primary voters. Two weeks ago, Menendez was indicted on federal bribery charges, a development which torpedoed the senator’s popularity, led to widespread calls for resignation, and prompted Kim to enter the Senate race.

Kim may not get the anti-Menendez lane to himself, however; other notable Democrats are also considering the race, most prominently First Lady Tammy Murphy. In the event of a three-way race with Murphy, the End Citizens United poll puts Kim in the lead with 42%, Murphy in second place with 19%, and Menendez far behind with just 5%.

Even accounting for the fact that it was released by an allied organization, the poll, which was first reported by Politico NJ, is a good one for Kim. The three-term congressman has a strong favorability score – 54% favorable, 6% unfavorable among Democratic – and, at least for now, appears to be in the best position to consolidate anti-Menendez primary voters.

“The stakes in this election couldn’t be higher, and people understand that if Senator Menendez is the Democratic nominee, we could lose this seat,” Kim said in a statement. “People understand that, and this poll makes it clear we are ready to move on from indictments and allegations of corruption.”

There are nuances and developments, though, that no poll can yet capture. Kim is campaigning (and fundraising) in a vacuum for now, but if Murphy or some other prominent Democrat were to enter the race, that would reshape the dynamics of the election in a way that’s tough to forecast. (Murphy, for her part, posts a 54%-5% favorability rating.)

There’s also the tricky problem of county lines, the unique New Jersey system that allows county political parties to have heavy sway over primary ballot design. Although many voters may say they support Kim now, if their local county party and elected officials all opt for someone else, that support could be fleeting.

The poll contains nothing but bad news, though, for Menendez, who has lost nearly all of his political allies both in New Jersey and in Washington. According to the poll, Menendez is viewed favorably by just 12% of New Jersey Democratic voters, which aligns with a different Public Policy Polling poll from last week. 

The senator has yet to say whether he’ll run for re-election; he told CNBC yesterday that he “will announce [his plans] when it comes time.” As today’s poll shows, if Menendez does run for a fourth term, he’d likely start out with precariously little support from New Jersey voters.

The Public Policy Polling poll was conducted on behalf of End Citizens United from October 3-4 with a sample size of 502 likely Democratic primary voters. It’s unclear what the margin of error is.