The Watcher: A new gubernatorial poll. Please clap

Without the county line, the words of former Senate President John Lynch are the earworm of 2025: “Here’s nothing. Guard it with your life.”

A Fairleigh Dickinson University poll released earlier this morning gives us a snapshot of how well-known the six Democratic gubernatorial candidates are, but not a head-to-head survey of where the race stands right now.  Dan Cassino is an excellent pollster, so his numbers merit some attention.

Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, who continues to defy expectations in this race – at least so far – has the highest favorables among Democrats, 43%-12%.  He’s followed by Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop (32%-7%), Rep. Mikie Sherrill (31%-6%), Rep. Josh Gottheimer (27%-10%), former Senate President Steve Sweeney (23%-24%), and New Jersey Education Association President and former Montclair Mayor Sean Spiller (22%-13%).

Remember: FDU polled registered Democrats, not likely Democratic primary voters.  The sample doesn’t model turnout.  This poll is about name recognition and favorables, not about who’s winning.  And perhaps most importantly, there are a whole lot of dollars still unspent on a primary that could, between the hard and soft sides – spend $100 million.

Now, here’s the mother of all clichés: the nominee will be decided not just by how many Democrats turnout, but who they are and where they’re from.

If the electorate is heavily progressive, the poll shows an advantage for Baraka, Fulop, and Sherrill.  Their favorables among self-identified progressives (45%, 41%, and 41%, respectively, are better than Gottheimer (28%), Spiller (24%) and Sweeney (21%).   Sherrill is on top among Democrats who identify as liberals (44%), followed by Baraka (38%) and Sweeney (34%).  Moderate Democrats like Sherrill best (44%), but Baraka (41%) and Fulop (36%) follow – that’s more of an indication that the numbers are based more on name recognition than being fully informed.  Here’s some evidence of that: about a quarter of self-identified Socialists view Gottheimer and Sweeney favorably, and 41% of moderates like Baraka.

In case you’re wondering:  46% of New Jersey Democrats say they’re liberal, 38% identify as moderates, and 32% call themselves progressives.  (Multiple responses were accepted.)

Baraka’s favorables among Black Democrats are three times better than the rest; he has an edge among Hispanic Democrats and does as well among White Democrats as Fulop and Gottheimer.  Sherrill’s favorables are best among White Democrats (48%), and Baraka is viewed more favorably than Sherrill among women (40%-33%).  And Baraka does better than the rest among Democrats under 30, which only matters if they show up; Fulop isn’t far behind.    Again, all of this is a function of an unbaked primary electorate.

The real takeaway is that the race to succeed term-limited Gov. Phil Murphy remains wide open; all six candidates have a path to win, but some have a narrower path than others.

A MOTHER’S TRAGIC STORY: Newark Code Enforcement Officer Sonia Rogers was arrested and charged with soliciting a $800 bribe from a local business in exchange for allowing the store to reopen despite the expiration of its business license.  She allegedly promised to make any fines go away.

While it’s hardly a defense, the 50-year-old Rogers is an extraordinarily sympathetic figure: all three of her young sons were victims of gun violence, killed between 2011 and 2014.  She acknowledged to the Star-Ledger in a 2017 interview that her sons were “no angels” and that one was a ranking member of the 793 Bloods street gang.

Baraka, who taught all three of Rogers’ sons, pushed back on social media posts at the time that applauded the deaths of the three men.

“I don’t care what they were into,” Newark’s mayor said in the same interview. “No mother deserves this.”

Speaking to the city council, Barka said that “losing three of her sons … is like when you send your kids off to war.  We are all responsible.”

So far, the state is pushing for a five to 10-year prison sentence for Rogers.

“The defendant’s trying to line her own pockets, instead of ensuring public health and safety, as alleged here, damages the public’s trust in government and could put lives at risk,” said Drew Skinner, the director of the embattled Office of Public Integrity and Accountability, which is prosecuting Rogers.

Meanwhile, all three of the murders remain unsolved.

WHO HAD GIORDANO ON THEIR BINGO CARD? The new acting U.S. Attorney for New Jersey is John Giordano, and the Trump administration’s decision to put him there on an interim basis was unexpected.  Giordano is a Philadelphia lawyer with Burlington County roots, and close ties to Donald Trump.  He’s been a federal prosecutor in Virginia, served as a U.S. Delegate to the United Nations General Assembly, and did a brief stint at the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection.  But here’s something few know: when Frank LoBiondo retired from Congress in 2018, some South Jersey Republican leaders tried to recruit Giordano, a potential self-funder, to run for the 2nd district congressional seat against then-Democrat Jeff Van Drew.

STEVE’S WEEKEND: Gubernatorial candidate Steve Sweeney got a boost last weekend with victories at the Burlington and Atlantic Democratic county conventions.  Sweeney won 44% in Burlington and benefitted from a late change in the rules that allowed a candidate to win an endorsement with a plurality, not a majority.  In Atlantic, Sweeney prevailed after two ballots of ranked-choice voting where the votes fourth place finisher, Mikie Sherrill, appeared to split relatively evenly between the other three candidates.  Sherrill won Sussex.

BILL’S SURPRISE: There wasn’t supposed to be any drama at the Mercer County GOP convention this week, but there was.  Without attending – and with organic support — Bill Spadea outdistanced Jack Ciattarelli by ten votes, 69-59, with 33 votes for Jon Bramnick.  The results were more of a straw poll since Spadea, Ciattarelli, and Bramnick were given permission to use the Republican organization slogan.

AND THE BEAT GOES ON: Two years after George Norcross referred to him as “Little Nicky,” Senate President Nicholas Scutari will headline a $3,500-per-person fundraiser honoring Norcross and South Jersey Democratic lawmakers.  The money will go to a Norcross-affiliated super PAC, American Representative Majority.

WAITING THEM OUT: A union representing journalists at the Asbury Park Press, Courier News, and Home News Tribune averted a walkout after agreeing to contract with Gannett.  It’s been nearly four years since The (Bergen) Record, Daily Record, and New Jersey Herald voted to unionize, and they still don’t have a contract; a source said that contracts are ongoing, and a deal could come this month.  Still, since the May 2021 vote to form a union, 45% of the original membership no longer work for Gannett.

CAT: Out of work Tom Moran, who lost his job as editorial page editor of the Star-Ledger last month when they stopped printing newspapers, went on social media to complain about his former employer: “Very strange.  NJ.com won’t take Op-Eds from me, even for free, after writing for them and running the opinion section for 20 years,” Moran stated “The new regime there is – how do I put this politely – a mystery to me.”  The Philadelphia Inquirer carried his Op-Ed, suggesting the prosecution of George Norcross was politically motivated.  Also noteworthy: Moran never complained about the Ledger’s owners when they were laying off two-thirds of its employees.

MOUSE: It was a bit perplexing that one of George Norcross’ biggest critics in the media, (now part-time) WNYC senior reporter Nancy Solomon, remained silent on a press call with defense attorneys the day a Superior Court Judge dismissed indictments against the Democratic powerbroker and others.  On a 2022 call with Norcross’ lawyers, Solomon was similarly timorous.  It gives this impression that Solomon can act like Chris Christie when cloistered in her radio studio, but while facing a team of lawyers, she shows Jon Corzine’s timidity.

SNAKE: Public relations man Bob Sommer appears to be the source of a leaked gubernatorial poll, sharing data with multiple people over the last few days.  Those who know him aren’t surprised.

Editor’s Note: the graphic for The Watcher was developed using Artificial Intelligence, something I regret doing.  The New Jersey Globe is typically vigilant in the belief that AI presents certain challenges to the integrity of journalism.  We are working on new art and ask that you be patient and forgiving.