Stomping Grounds: Bob Menendez, Tom Kean, Culture Wars, and Rob Menendez

New Jerseyans aren’t always civil, but it’s still possible for a liberal Democrat and a conservative Republican to have a rational and pleasant conversation about politics in the state.  Dan Bryan is a former senior advisor to Gov. Phil Murphy and is now the owner of his own public affairs firm, and Alex Wilkes is an attorney and former executive director of America Rising PAC who advises Republican candidates in New Jersey and across the nation.  Dan and Alex are both experienced strategists who are currently in the room where high-level decisions are made.  They will get together weekly with New Jersey Globe editor David Wildstein to discuss politics and issues.

New Jersey Globe: Life continues to get worse for Bob Menendez.  He’s not in the room for classified briefings.  John Fetterman is trolling him from inside the U.S. Capitol.  Now an FDU poll shows that 70% of New Jerseyans want him to resign – and in what had to be a dagger through his heart, 71% of Hispanics want him gone.  He’s a tough guy, but everyone has a breaking point.  When will Menendez’s be?

Alex Wilkes: Menendez isn’t going anywhere. He not only has leverage as a sitting U.S. Senator in his upcoming court case, but he also has fundraising advantages that he will need to fight this. Not to mention he’s going to need that paycheck! Bergen County is expensive – and so are Nadine’s tastes.

We’re also just in a “no surrender” moment in American politics. It used to be that getting caught doing something bad, then morbidly parading your tearful family in front of the press to resign, and later reinventing yourself with a memoir or podcast was a time-honored political tradition. We live now in just a shameless, blameless time.

Dan Bryan: I don’t think Senator Menendez will resign, unless it happens as part of a plea deal with the Southern District. I believe the most likely outcome is that he serves out the rest of his term, regardless of polling or how unpopular he may be in DC. I don’t think he cares how the outside world perceives him at this point.

NJ Globe: Congressman Kean voted for Jim Jordan for Speaker of the House.  Is that an electoral problem for Kean if Jordan never becomes Speaker?  What’s the impact on rank-and-file voters in New Jersey’s 7th district next year?

Dan: Tom Kean sold out the people of New Jersey with his support of Congressman Jim Jordan for Speaker. Jordan, one of the most reprehensible people serving in DC, voted against Sandy relief, against Ida relief, and against healthcare for 9/11 first responders. He is everything that’s wrong with our modern politics: someone who makes a lot of noise while accomplishing exactly nothing.

Congressman Kean has quit any attempt at moderation and thrown his lot in with the extremists of his party in DC. There is no possible excuse for him to support Jim Jordan for Speaker. But since he doesn’t answer questions nor hold himself accountable to his constituents, he won’t need an excuse anyway.

Kean’s vote for Jordan is a godsend for Sue Altman, the likely Democratic nominee in CD7. She’ll spend the next thirteen months reminding the voters of the seventh congressional district who Tom Kean truly represents and who he really answers to.

Alex: I am sure that by the numbers, Congressman Kean’s district will always be a competitive one, but it certainly won’t be because of a vote for Speaker of the House following a Motion to Vacate in the off-year.

A tiny fraction of the Republican caucus sided with every Democratic member in removing Kevin McCarthy, over Congressman Kean’s – and other Republicans’ – strenuous objections. Israel was then mercilessly attacked by Hamas, leaving the U.S. completely handicapped in coming to the aid of one of our most important allies during the largest systematic murder of Jews since the Holocaust. Voting for a consensus pick for Speaker so that resources could be quickly appropriated given the very grave circumstances was more than reasonable.

And I’m so glad Dan brought up Sue! I’m looking forward to asking her whether she would have sided with House Democrats in removing the Speaker of the House in light of the international crisis we now face, or if she joins her potential colleagues in the Hamas Caucus in blaming Israel for the slaughter of their own people. Hi Sue!

NJ Globe: Two polls presented different pictures of how Culture War issues will affect New Jersey Legislative races.  An FDU poll – and Dan Cassino is a great pollster —  suggests that the desire of parents to have a say on what their children are taught in public schools is a potential death knell for Democratic legislative candidates.  And a poll commissioned by the NJEA says that conservatives are simply on the wrong side of these issues in New Jersey.   First, will this election be won or lost on Culture War issues?  And second, how is this going to play out on Election Day?

Alex: Well, I’ve personally been involved with paid media that do tie Murphy to vulnerable Democrats, so I can’t say that Dan’s assertion that we’ve left the Governor alone is entirely correct. I’d go after that effete, Massachusetts weirdo every day of the week and twice on Sundays if I didn’t have, you know, kids who depended on me for stuff.

The bottom line is that Republicans didn’t need a poll to tell us that parents want a say in their kids’ education, but Murphy and Platkin did need lawsuits and threats to show them who’s boss. Like the cost of Murphy’s electrification mandates and corporate bailouts for green energy supporters of New Jersey Democrats, this is a common sense issue for voters.

Let me ask this: If Democrats are so proud of the curriculum changes and lawsuits designed to keep parents out of the classroom, why has not a single Democrat in a swing district come out in full support of either?

Dan: There are many reasons for Democrats to be concerned about this November’s election, but I don’t think this poll isn’t one of them. Yes, of course the desire for parents to have a say in their community’s public schools (which, to be clear, they currently do) is popular. Why does that translate to a Republican advantage? I don’t know a single Democrat that opposes it. Republican messaging has been jumbled at best, and I haven’t seen them make a strong case to voters about education. If anything, voters in New Jersey know that Republicans cannot be trusted as stewards of our public school system, the pride and joy of our state.

Democrats in swing districts will have their hands full on election day, but so will Republicans. They’ll have to answer for their unpopular agenda, the failures of the past, and the complete disaster unfolding in the House. Though I’m out of the predictions game, all things being equal, I’d much rather be us than them.

I will note something to all of my Republican friends (including the one I share this column with) – one person has been notably absent from Republican paid media. It seems that if Governor Murphy was so unpopular, Republicans would be pasting him all over Democratic incumbents and challengers this cycle. Could this be a tacit admission that the Governor remains stubbornly popular, even in swing districts?

NJ Globe: Congressman Rob Menendez didn’t amass a serious warchest during his first nine months in Congress, and now his father’s salacious indictment has potentially left him vulnerable to a Democratic primary challenge.  I can see a scenario where the Hudson mayors save him, and I can see a diegesis where a relatively new guy who literally shares his father’s name is unelectable.   How does Menendez get a second term?

Dan: I don’t believe the people of Hudson County will hold the sins of his father against Congressman Menendez, nor will the elected officials in CD8 that will be critical to his reelection. Since getting to DC, Rob has worked hard to establish himself as a public servant independent of his father. I can’t imagine how hard things must be for him and his family these days, but I certainly wouldn’t bet against Congressman Menendez (and his excellent strategist, Mike Soliman) sewing up the support necessary for reelection sooner rather than later.

Alex: I don’t know that he can. The elder Menendez’ legal woes present a once-in-a-generation chance to reshuffle the deck for so many. From Andy Kim’s congressional district and the state and local leaders who will compete for it to the Senate race itself, Democrats who want to move up (and don’t want to wait another 30 years) need to act quickly. Congressman Menendez may be blameless here, but if voters are ready to throw out the Menendez brand entirely, there are just too many up-and-coming Democrats who won’t want to wait around.