Sabato’s Crystal Ball moves Van Drew race toward Democrats as national House outlook shifts

Rep. Jeff Van Drew’s (R-Dennis) re-election race against Cape May Mayor Zack Mullock has become more competitive, according to Sabato’s Crystal Ball, one of the nation’s leading independent election forecasting organizations, as a new round of ratings changes reflects an increasingly difficult political environment for House Republicans.

The change was made “just to watch as deep sleepers in the event of a blue tsunami,” said Kyle Klondik, of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball announced 28 House rating changes on Tuesday, bringing the number of seats rated at least leaning Democratic to 223, five more than the 218 needed for a House majority.

The new ratings leave 200 seats at least leaning Republican and just twelve classified as toss-ups, a significant shift in the national political landscape with two weeks remaining before Election Day.

The Crystal Ball’s analysts also suggested Democrats could approach 235 House seats, matching their performance in the 2018 Democratic wave election during President Donald Trump’s first term.

The latest assessment identifies several Republican-held districts as potentially credible Democratic targets, including seats previously considered relatively secure.

In New Jersey’s 7th district, Rep. Tom Kean, Jr. (R-Westfield) faces Democrat Rebecca Bennett in a race that the Crystal Ball had already classified as Leans Democratic before Tuesday’s announcement. Kean won the district by roughly five percentage points in 2024, and it has been among the most closely watched congressional contests in New Jersey.

Van Drew, who was first elected to Congress as a Democrat in 2018 before switching parties the following year, won re-election by nearly 17 percentage points in 2024.  His South Jersey district also supported Trump by a substantial margin.

The national ratings changes underscore the potential consequences of a Democratic wave extending beyond traditional battleground districts.

The Crystal Ball’s latest Senate ratings show at least 49 seats leaning Democratic, 46 at least leaning Republican, and five toss-ups. Its gubernatorial ratings place 25 states at least leaning Democratic, 22 at least leaning Republican, and three in the toss-up category.