Race rater upgrades Democrats’ chances in NJ-3, NJ-5

Two New Jersey House Democrats’ re-election chances got a last-minute upgrade from the Cook Political Report.

Race rater Dave Wasserman, the U.S. House editor for Cook, on Monday announced ratings in New Jersey’s third and fifth districts were improving for Democrats.

The third, where first-term Rep. Andy Kim (D-Marlton) face a challenge from former Hill International CEO David Richter, went from “leans Democrat” to “likely Democrat.”

That downgrade was rooted in the cash gap between the two candidates.

“In January, President Trump and Republicans convinced GOP construction executive David Richter to move to the 3rd CD to clear a path for party-switching Rep. Jeff Van Drew in the 2nd CD,” Wasserman said. “But Richter never invested the personal money necessary to put the race in play, and Kim has had the airwaves to himself. In a twist of fate, both Richter and Van Drew could now lose.”

Van Drew faces a challenge from House candidate Amy Kennedy. Cook rates that race as a toss-up.

The fifth district, where Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wyckoff) face former investment banker Frank Pallotta in his bid for a third term, was taken off the board completely. The Cook Political Report now rates that race as solidly Democratic, up from “likely Democratic.”

Wasserman said that rating was more reliant on Pallotta’s lack of a solid campaign showing than the Gottheimer’s massive fundraising advantage.

“Pallotta has struggled to gain traction all cycle, considering Trump’s unpopularity in upscale Bergen County and the cost of the New York media market,” Wasserman said. “The perennially well-funded Gottheimer won by 14 points in 2018, and may be on track for a similar win this time. It’s possible he could get an even safer district in 2021 redistricting.”