Four questions ahead of the NJ-3 Republican primary debate

When yacht manufacturer Bob Healey Jr. and Atilis Gym owner Ian Smith meet virtually at 8 p.m. tonight for a New Jersey Globe- and Save Jersey-hosted primary debate, it will be the first time the two Republican congressional candidates publicly go head-to-head.

That means there’s a lot up in the air, and a lot at stake, as Healey and Smith enter the home stretch in the primary election to take on Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) in the Democratic-leaning 3rd congressional district. There’s any number of ways the matchup between straightlaced businessman Healey and bearded ideologue Smith could go down; here are four things to watch for.

Will Healey tack to the right?

One of the most durable rules in modern American politics is that to win a primary, you have to give your base something to work with. Especially as the two main parties have become more ideologically exclusive, showing off your progressive credentials in a Democratic primary or your conservative bonafides in a Republican primary is an easy way to earn the trust of your voters.

For Smith, who is running as a hardline pro-Trump conservative, that shouldn’t be terribly difficult to do. But it’s a thornier problem for the establishment-aligned and party-endorsed Healey, who is a loyal Republican but who has cast himself as more moderate in a number of ways. 

When Republican base issues like abortion, Covid, and the certification of President Joe Biden’s victory come up tonight, Healey will have to decide whether to align with the right wing of his party or respectfully break from it. If he chooses the former, that might make it more difficult to beat Kim in November; if he chooses the latter, it could give Smith an opening in the primary.

“They’ll be trying to out-right each other,” predicted Micah Rasmussen, the director of the Rebovich Institute of New Jersey Politics at Rider University. “That may not accrue to the eventual nominee’s advantage when it comes to pivoting back to the general election, but right now they’re trying to get through a primary.”

How will Smith address his ongoing trouble with the law?

Smith has his own, more immediate concerns to deal with: his DUI arrest in March. Pulled over while driving through Cinnaminson on the way back from a night out, Smith failed a series of field sobriety tests and refused to take a Breathalyzer test.

Smith has claimed the arrest was part of a revenge-fueled conspiracy by state Democrats, but that excuse may not hold water in the eyes of voters given his past; when he was 20, Smith drove while intoxicated and killed a teenager, an incident for which he served several years in prison. Tonight’s debate will be the first opportunity for Healey – or anyone, really – to force Smith to defend himself in an unscripted environment.

“Healey is going to have the chance to put some questions directly to Smith about his personal behavior and the drunk driving allegations,” Rasmussen said. “Those are not things that Smith has had to answer on the spot before, in front of voters.”

What will the two candidates have to say about abortion and Roe v. Wade?

The biggest point of political discussion right now is, of course, the leaked Supreme Court draft opinion that would overturn Roe v. Wade, and the topic of abortion access is sure to come up at tonight’s debate. 

Given the anti-abortion bent of most Republican voters, Smith and Healey are both likely to signal their support for the draft ruling and their opposition to New Jersey’s unrestrictive abortion laws. A look at both candidates’ social media, however, shows that neither seems to think the issue is a massive winner, and tonight could produce some interesting answers.

Smith hasn’t posted online about the opinion at all, while Healey wrote a nuanced Twitter thread yesterday saying that while he defines himself as pro-life, he recognizes that “in NJ, the will of the majority may not be in line with my personal beliefs, and I respect that.”

Will Andy Kim be watching?

Kim, an emerging electoral force in state politics who was first elected in 2018, may have better things to do tonight than watch the Republican debate – celebrating Star Wars Day with his young kids, for example. (May the Fourth be with you.)

But his re-election campaign team will no doubt be eagerly waiting to see whether Smith or especially Healey says something drastically out of step with the 3rd district, which voted for Biden by 14 points and is chock-full of suburban moderate voters.

“The biggest challenge is, you say something in an attempt to appeal to a GOP primary voter that just isn’t acceptable to a general election voter,” Rasmussen said of the risks for Healey and Smith. “And that’s a risk that runs pretty high … in a new, Democratic-leaning district.”

If inflation remains high and Biden remains unpopular, Kim could be in some trouble this November. But the more intense the Republican primary to face him gets, the better-equipped he’ll be to face his eventual opponent – and it starts with tonight’s debate.