Home>Campaigns>Dead heat in combined five competitive New Jersey House races, new poll shows

Members of the New Jersey congressional delegation in the 116th Congress in Washington in 2019, left to right: Donald Norcross, Jeff Van Drew, Frank Pallone, Mikie Sherrill, Tom Malinowski, Bonnie Watson Coleman, Albio Sires, Bill Pascrell, Andy Kim and Donald Payne. Missing: Josh Gottheimer

Dead heat in combined five competitive New Jersey House races, new poll shows

In most closely-watched congressional districts, generic ballot test gives GOP a 46%-45% edge

By David Wildstein, April 23 2020 10:18 am

A statewide poll released today by Monmouth University gives Democratic congressional candidates 50%-38% edge, but that number becomes a statistical dead heat in five politically competitive districts where both parties are trying to flip House seats.

In those districts – Jeff Van Drew (R-Dennis) in the 2nd, Andy Kim (D-Marlton) in the 3rd, Josh Gottheimer (D-Wyckoff) in the 5th, Tom Malinowski (D-Ringoes) in the 7th) and Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) in the 11th – Republicans have a slight 46%-45% lead.

“Democratic incumbents in New Jersey’s ‘blue wave’ districts face a tough challenge heading into November,” said Patrick Murray, the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.  “The terrain does not look quite as friendly as it did two years ago even with a strong performance by their party at the top of the ticket this year.”

In a Monmouth University Poll conducted in April 2018, Democrats had a 54%-35% statewide advantage and won the November elections by a 60%-39% margin.

At the same point in the five competitive districts, when Democrats were seeking to flip four House seats and re-elect Gottheimer to a second term, they had a 7-point lead, 49%-42%.

Those five seats, all won by Democrats, gave them a 54%-45% win in Election Day.

The Monmouth University poll was conducted April 16-19 with a random sample of 604 adults and has a margin of error of +/- 3.9%.  Party affiliation is self-described and does not necessarily reflect their voter registration, if any at all.

MonmouthPoll_NJ_042320_Redacted
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