Six months after moving New Jersey’s Senate race to “Likely Democrat” thanks to the federal charges against incumbent Senator Bob Menendez, top elections forecaster Cook Political Report (CPR) has moved the race back into the “Solid Democrat” column and off the playing field.
As CPR’s Jessica Taylor wrote this morning, it had looked for months like there would be a brutal Democratic primary between Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) and First Lady Tammy Murphy – and possibly Menendez, who has professed his innocence – which created some uncertainty about Democrats’ chances. But Murphy dropped out of the race on Sunday and Menendez didn’t file to run in the Democratic primary, clearing the path for Kim, a battle-tested congressman.
“With Kim essentially locking up the Democratic nomination – even though indicted Sen. Bob Menendez is threatening to run as an independent – it’s clear any acrimony in the race that could have threatened Democrats’ control on this seat has largely dissipated,” Taylor wrote. “We’ll continue to monitor any effect Menendez may have on the race, but with Murphy’s exit and the state machine likely set to line up behind Kim, this race has a clear trajectory.”
Taylor did note, though, that Menendez has threatened to run for the seat as an independent if he’s exonerated in court, which could make life more difficult for Kim in a general election.
“If Menendez does make it onto the ballot as an independent (he would only need 800 signatures), we would reevaluate the race then,” Taylor wrote. “But given the beleaguered incumbent’s standing in the state, both parties view him as a ‘zombie’ candidate and it’s doubtful he’d have much of an impact on the final outcome.”
When Kim launched his run for Senate last year, CPR also moved his House seat, the Burlington County-based 3rd congressional district, into the Likely Democrat column. Kim won his first race against a Republican incumbent in 2018 by just a few thousand votes, and while his seat was redrawn before the 2022 elections to make it more Democratic, Republicans were initially enthusiastic that they could put the open seat in play.
But it, too, has now been moved back into Solid Democrat. CPR’s Dave Wasserman and Erin Covey wrote that Republicans “lack a top-tier candidate for [the] open seat,” with physician and former Holmdel Township Committee candidate Rajesh Mohan looking like the GOP frontrunner; Assemblyman Herb Conaway (D-Delran) is the favorite for the Democratic nomination in a five-way primary.
That means the only New Jersey race currently considered competitive by CPR is the 7th congressional district, where Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-Westfield) is set to face Democrat Sue Altman in a toss-up race.