More than 30% of all VBMs have been returned

Two weeks before Election Day, more than 30% of all vote-by-mail ballots have already been returned, bringing the advance voter turnout to 4.3% statewide, an analysis by Associated Press election researcher Ryan Dubicki shows.

Of the 279,400 votes already cast, 65.8% are from Democrats and 21.4% from Republicans.

County Clerks mailed out 925,527 vote-by-mail ballots; 57% were requested by Democrats and 19% by Republicans.  Both parties are returning VBMs at an equal pace.

Democrats have a massive edge in the closely-watched 3rd district, where State Sen. Ed Durr (R-Logan) faces former Assemblyman John Burzichelli (D-Paulsboro) for a seat held for 20 years by Senate President Steve Sweeney.   Returned VBMS from Democrats outnumber Republicans by 5,160 (65%-24%), with 42.6% of all VBMs returned to county election officials.

In the 4th district, where three open Democratic seats are at stake, 37.3% of mail-in ballots have been returned.  Of those ballots, 68% came from Democrats and 21% from Republicans; the Democratic edge is 6,613.  More than one in three ballots (37.3%) have been marked as received.  State Sen. Fred Madden (D-Washington Township) is retiring after twenty years in the Senate; Democrat Paul Moriarty (D-Washington Township), a nine-term assemblyman, and Republican Christopher Del Borrello, a former Washington Township councilman, are facing off for Madden’s seat.

Nearly four times as many Democrats have returned mail-in ballots than Republicans in the 11th district, where two-term State Sen. Vin Gopal (D-Long Branch) faces Republican Steve Dnistrian: 3,957 ballots have been returned – 67% from Democrats and 18% from Republicans.  A total of 37.5% of all mailed ballots are back.

In District 16, where State Sen. Andrew Zwicker (D-South Brunswick) faces a rematch with former Rep. Michael Pappas, 31.6% of all VBMs have been returned.  Democrats have an edge of 4,800 (63.7%-20.7%).

The Democratic edge in the 38th district, where State Sen. Joseph Lagana (D-Paramus) faces Republican Michelle Attieh, 32% of all VBMs have been sent back.  There are 2,972 more vote-by-mail ballots from Democrats than Republicans (67%-18%).

The only district in the state with more Republican VBMS than Democratic is the 30th, where the GOP advantage is 120.

In the 6th district, Democrtats have returned 9,072 more mail-in ballots than Republicans.