28.5% of VBMs have been returned; Democrats maintain strong advantages

With fifteen days until the midterm elections, Democrats are maintaining a better than 3-1 advantage in returned vote-by-mail ballots in six of the nine potentially competitive legislative districts in New Jersey, according to an analysis by Ryan Dubicki, an Associated Press election researcher.

New Jerseyans have already cast 264,455 votes, with nearly 28.5% of the 925,067 mail-in ballots sent out by county clerks since September 23 already returned. That means roughly one-in-seven voters (14.3%) have proactively requested vote-by-mail ballots.

Voter turnout so far is at 4% statewide, a healthy advance voting number in a cycle that drew 27% statewide by Election Day.

But in four key legislative districts, advance voting is higher than the state average: 5.9% in District 3, 7.3% in District 4, 4.8% in District 11, and 6.1% in District 16.

In the 3rd district, 41% of all VBMs have been returned, with Democrats holding a 68%-20% advantage.

Democrats have a 68.5%-21% advantage in District 4, where 35% of mail-in ballots have already come back.

In the hotly-contested 11th district, 36% of VBMs are back; 67% are from Democrats and 18% from Republicans.

The 16th district race has attracted a return rate of 30% of mail-in ballots, with Democrats enjoying a 64%-21% edge.

Democrats have a 67%-18% advantage in the 38th district and a 66%-21% edge in the 14th.

In District 2, Democrats make up 65% of the returned ballots, with 25% for the Republicans, and in the 8th district, there’s an edge for Democrats of 63%-26%.

The only possibly competitive district where Republicans are outpacing Democrats is the 30th, where the GOP leads 42%-39%.