In the NJ-11 special primary, local endorsements did not rule the day

Longtime progressive organizer Analilia Mejia’s special primary victory last week came as a surprise to many; not just because of her left-wing bona fides in a wealthy district, but because her local and county endorsements paled in comparison to those of her opponents, typically a harbinger of defeat in New Jersey. 

The 11th district’s three county parties divvied up their support between four of Mejia’s opponents, and many of the district’s local leaders (when they did choose to make an endorsement) opted to back Essex County Commissioner Brendan Gill or former Rep. Tom Malinowski.

Mejia doubled and tripled down on the in-state progressive organizers and out-of-state progressive endorsers who built a formidable get-out-the-vote infrastructure in the weeks leading to Thursday’s election. (She also benefitted from outside spenders who appeared to underestimate the potential of her progressive, anti-Trump message in an oddly scheduled special primary.)

Her opponents, several of whom rounded up support from many local elected officials, wound up with little to show for it.

It’s nigh impossible to determine the exact value of specific local endorsements, especially with cross-cutting factors like voter demographics and campaign spending, which increasingly influence voting trends. But it’s evident that only a handful of leaders in the state — like Union City Mayor Brian Stack or the Lakewood Vaad, who possess omnipresent operations within their towns — maintain the ability to swing a significant number of votes, not to mention deliver huge victories to their chosen candidate. 

Nine Essex County mayors endorsed Gill, as did the Essex County Democrats and Chair LeRoy Jones Jr. But Gill won just two of those nine towns, Montclair and Roseland. The rest went for Mejia or Malinowski. (Malinowski himself received the endorsement of one Essex County mayor, South Orange’s Sheena Collum, but South Orange’s decently progressive base gave Mejia a 7-point margin in the town.)

Several other endorsements seemingly had little effect. Despite Morristown Mayor Tim Dougherty’s endorsement of Gill, the commissioner received less than 7% of the vote in the town.

In the progressive town of Maplewood, the whole township committee endorsed Gill after Committeeman Dean Dafis dropped out of the race. Gill would end up receiving less than 9% of the town’s vote, while Mejia won more than 40% in Maplewood.

Two opposing alliances formed in Belleville: The incumbent mayor, Michael Melham, endorsed Gill alongside three Belleville councilmembers. Melham’s mayoral challenger, Belleville Councilman Frank Vélez, endorsed Malinowski, meanwhile. Those alliances were for naught. Mejia won Belleville with almost 35% of the vote, defeating both Gill and Malinowski by more than 10 points. Belleville’s residents looked past the feud — or simply haven’t taken a close look at all — and picked Mejia. 

On a county-level, similar dynamics were at play. Despite being known to Essex County’s voters and backed by the county party, Gill finished third in Essex. Malinowski, who had the backing of Morris County Democrats, won the county, beating Mejia by about 6 points. Passaic Democrats split their endorsement between former Lt. Gov. Tahesha Way (a former Passaic commissioner) and Passaic County Commissioner John Bartlett; as of Friday, Mejia was narrowly beating Way, while Bartlett was fifth (though Passaic, home to voters who recognized his name and work, was by far Bartlett’s strongest showing).

Micah Rasmussen, the director of the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics at Rider University, said an endorsement from a local official can only go as far as the work they put behind it.

“If they’re willing to get behind it, if they’re willing to work it, if they’re willing to make sure voters know about it, if they have the ability to transfer that political support to the county, then it can be invaluable,” Rasmussen said. “But only under that condition, that they’re willing to stand behind it, they’re willing to work for it, they’re willing to make it real.”

Mejia’s endorsements, meanwhile, helped address two of her foremost needs. Endorsements from national progressives like Senator Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) established a legitimacy to her candidacy, showing voters she was to be taken seriously. And her endorsements from groups like the New Jersey Working Families Party and many progressive unions granted her support from organizers capable of knocking on 100,000 doors (and her own experience as an organizer helped as well).

Rasmussen said that local officials whose endorsements are invaluable, like Stack in Union City, similarly pair their endorsements with rallies and voter outreach.

“What I don’t want to sit here and say is that a mayor’s endorsement means nothing. No, I’m telling you that if they’re willing to get behind it and stand behind it and do the work and make sure that the people who know the mayor and trust the mayor … that can continue to be a very valuable endorsement,” Rasmussen said. “But if we just automatically think that was a name on a paper and that that’s going to mean something, I think that’s a mistake.”