Democrats enter Election Day with 403,000-vote early voting advantage, but Van Drew has sizable pool of reliable GOP voters

Democrats enter Election Day with a 403,186-vote advantage over Republicans in New Jersey, a substantially larger margin than at the same point last year, although an analysis of voters who have not yet cast ballots suggests that Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-Dennis) has a sizable pool of reliable Republican voters available to turn out on Tuesday.

With one day remaining before the November 3 election, 1,222,264 New Jerseyans have already cast ballots, including 693,281 Democrats (56.7%), 290,095 Republicans (23.7%), and 238,888 unaffiliated and third-party voters (19.5%), according to an analysis by Umichvoter.

At the same point in 2025, when Gov. Mikie Sherrill defeated Republican Jack Ciattarelli by 14 percentage points, Democrats had cast 675,319 ballots, compared with 385,767 Republicans, a margin of 289,552 votes.

The Democratic advantage has grown by 113,634 ballots, even as overall advance turnout has declined by 112,308 votes.

Democratic participation is up 17,962 ballots, or 2.7%, while Republican turnout has dropped by 95,672 ballots, or 24.8%.

But in New Jersey’s 2nd congressional district, where Van Drew faces Democrat Zach Mullock, the mayor of Cape May, the remaining electorate’s composition offers Republicans a potentially important Election Day opportunity.

An analysis of voters who have not yet cast ballots shows that Republicans outnumber Democrats by 34,654 among the highest-propensity voters — those who participated in three or four of the last four elections.

Another 9,386-voter Republican advantage exists among voters who participated in one or two of the last four elections.

That gives Republicans a combined 44,040-voter advantage among district residents who voted in at least one of the previous four elections.

The figures suggest that while Democrats have built a substantial advantage through early voting, Van Drew has a considerably larger pool of Republicans with demonstrated voting histories still available to turn out on Election Day.

The distinction matters because high-propensity voters are generally more reliable participants, and Republicans have historically depended more heavily on Election Day voting than Democrats.

The numbers do not guarantee that those voters will turn out or support their party’s congressional nominee. But they show why the Democratic early-voting advantage does not necessarily translate into an equivalent advantage when all ballots are counted.

Overall, the pool of remaining potential voters in the 2nd district includes 159,526 Republicans, 122,534 Democrats, and 185,049 unaffiliated and other voters, for a total of 467,109 registered voters who have not yet cast ballots.

Republicans outnumber Democrats by 36,992 among all remaining voters, including those who did not participate in any of the previous four elections.

That gives Van Drew a potentially significant Election Day advantage in a district where Republican turnout could determine whether Democrats can overcome his established political strength.

On Monday, the Center for American Politics at the University of Virginia’s Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved the Van Drew vs. Mullock race from Likely Republican to Leans Republican.

Statewide, Democrats maintained a double-digit advantage on all nine days of in-person early voting.

Their daily margin began at 32.1 percentage points on October 24, narrowed to 16.7 points Thursday, and rebounded to 18.6 points Friday and 22.5 points Saturday.

On Sunday, the final day, Democrats outvoted Republicans by 19.8 percentage points.

The Democratic share of the statewide advance electorate has increased from 50.6% in 2025 to 56.7% this year, while the Republican share has fallen from 28.9% to 23.7%.

The figures present two potentially competing Election Day narratives: Democrats have built a substantially larger statewide early-voting advantage than last year, but Republicans in the 2nd district still have a significant numerical advantage among reliable voters who have not yet cast ballots.

Whether those Republicans turn out Tuesday — and how the district’s large pool of unaffiliated voters breaks — could prove decisive in Van Drew’s bid for another term.

Polls will be open Tuesday from 6 AM to 8 PM.