In NJ’s most competitive House race, analyst says the edge goes to Bennett

WASHINGTON — As Rep. Tom Kean Jr. and Rebecca Bennett prepare for their only debate of the campaig a leading analyst of congressional races just made the Democratic challenger a slight favorite in New Jersey’s most competitive U.S. House contest.

The Cook Political Report just shifted its race rating in the 7th Congressional District and said Bennett, a former U.S. Navy pilot, was now favored to defeat Kean, R-Westfield, a two-term incumbent.

Cook had rated the contest a tossup but its House race analyst, Erin Covey, wrote that Kean “looks like the clear underdog.” An InsiderNJ/StimSight Research poll released earlier this month gave  Bennett a five-point lead over Kean among likely voters, 47%-42%, though well within the survey’s margin of error of +4.7 percentage points.

Another Washington-based publication that tracks congressional races, Inside Elections, earlier listed Bennett as a slight favorite.

The district is one of the most competitive in the country — Covey called it “one of the most difficult districts for a Republican to hold this cycle — and will help decide whether Democrats win a House majority this fall. 

It is one of 12 GOP-held seats that the Cook Political Report on Fridat shifted toward the Democrats as national polls show President Donald Trump’s job approval rating below 40%.

The incumbent missed more than 100 roll call votes while being hospitalized for depression. He was criticized for not explaining the reason for his absence for months.

“Kean’s four-month long absence for mental health treatment — and his lack of transparency about his disappearance — has clearly damaged his image with voters,” Covey said.

Only 37% of likely voters approved of Kean’s job performance, less than the 42% who gave Trump positive job approval ratings in the InsiderNJ poll.

Kean has been a strong supporter of Trump’s policies, voting for his giant tax and spending bill, opposing efforts to require Congress to debate and authorize the Iran War, and backing legislation that would make it harder to register and vote, which Republicans say is needed to address voter fraud that independent studies show is extremely rare.

The House Republicans’ political arm, though, pointed out that the new tax law that Kean supported also temporarily increased the federal deduction for state and local taxes that Trump and GOP lawmakers slashed during his first term.

The two candidates meet at 7:00 p.m. Sunday in a debate sponsored by the New Jersey Globe and Rider University.  You can watch on the New Jersey Globe website and social media channels, and C-SPAN.