The Watcher: Will GOP meddle in Democratic primary?

Speaking of meddling, did Chris Christie get Phil Murphy re-elected in 2021?

There is a growing belief that the Republican Governors Association is preparing to play heavily in New Jersey this year, maybe even in the Democratic primary, if they believe they can help a potentially weaker general election candidate get across the finish line, the New Jersey Globe has learned.

So far, none of the Democratic candidates – or their super PACs – have put any money behind a bid to tear down one of their opponents.  And if they do, that comes with a risk: they might peel votes away from one candidate, but that doesn’t mean they can necessarily direct those voters to a particular alternative.  Playing in another party’s primary to gain an easier opponent is nothing new.  Sometimes it works, but the strategy has been known to backfire.

In Washington, some Republicans believe New Jersey could be more winnable than Virginia, the only other state with a governor’s race this year.  Donald Trump did just as well in the Garden State in 2024 as in Virginia, and the President has a longtime affinity for New Jersey.

There may be some remorse at the RGA, which pretty much took a pass on New Jersey in 2021, only to see Jack Ciattarelli come within three points of unseating Gov. Phil Murphy.  But the decision wasn’t based on incorrect polling alone: the New Jersey Globe has confirmed that former Gov. Chris Christie weighed in heavily, telling the RGA – which he chaired in 2014 – that the race was unwinnable.

SPECULATION: If former Rep. Tom Malinowski runs for Congress again, don’t be surprised to see him run in New Jersey’s 11th district if Mikie Sherrill is elected governor.  He had represented Dover and Millburn during his first four years in Congress, and his fundraising connections could propel his candidacy in a special election.  Malinowski was elected Hunterdon County Democratic chairman last year – technically, that wouldn’t impede his run in NJ-11 – and he’s back on the trail tomorrow doing a town hall meeting in Summit.

CHANGE IS COMING: Several county party organizations are preparing to change their ballot slogans in this year’s lineless, office-block ballot primary using the word “endorsed.”  For example, the Bergen County Republican Organization, which has used the slogan “Republicans for Responsible Government” for decades, will switch to “Bergen County Republican Endorsed Candidates.”

MARIO, WE HARDLY KNEW YE: Party conventions these days are just straw polls of insiders, but it’s not insignificant that former Englewood Cliffs Mayor Mario Kranjec, a late entrant into the GOP gubernatorial race, received just 11.6% of the vote in his home county.  Unless he hits a fundraising home run over the next twelve days, some Republican insiders suggest it’s fair to question the viability of his candidacy.  Also, with the filing deadline coming up on March 24, The Watcher suggests keeping an eye on other self-proclaimed candidates as they seek 2,500 authentic signatures on their nominating petitions.

HERE’S NOTHING.  GUARD IT WITH YOUR LIFE: At the Union County GOP convention, Carmen Bucco and Richard Tabor defeated David Fitzpatrick and Ramon Hernandez by a vote of 58-6, a margin of more than 81 points, for the chance to run for State Assembly in the heavily Democratic 20th legislative district using the organization slogan.  Joe Cryan defeated Bucco in a 2023 Senate race by 49 points.

LUCKY – AND NOT LUCKY: The unexpected elimination of the direct election of State Committee members – under a new law, they’ll now be elected by the county committee – works out well for Darlene Shotmeyer, the GOP state committeewoman from Bergen County since 2013.  Instead of a convention last night, she won another term without opposition after party leaders decided it would serve as her election.  The filing deadline was in January – before the new law was even introduced – and her convention opponent dropped out.

Shotmeyer’s running mate, Benedict Focarino, was less fortunate: in a defeat many saw coming, he lost to former Upper Saddle River Councilman Vincent Durante by 48 votes.  Apparently, he worked harder on this election than he has for any other candidate during his sixteen years as a state committeeman.

THE REAL HOUSEWIVES OF SOUTH JERSEY: The Queen of Toxicity, Gina LaPlaca, was ousted this week as the Neptune Township business administrator – a move that has been rumored for more than a year. Until now, LaPlaca has been able to sidestep personal issues in the workplace – and at home; her husband, Jason Carty, is also controversial.  She is also the mayor of Lumberton.

NEW JOB: A Democratic pollster and campaign strategist with ties to New Jersey, Ben Lazarus, has moved from TargetSmart to Patinkin Research Strategies.  Lazarus has polled for Reps. Frank Pallone, Josh Gottheimer, and Rob Menendez, and for the Democratic Assembly Campaign Committee.