New Jerseyans aren’t always civil, but it’s still possible for a liberal Democrat and a conservative Republican to have a rational and pleasant conversation about politics in the state. Dan Bryan is a former senior advisor to Gov. Phil Murphy and is now the owner of his own public affairs firm, and Alex Wilkes is an attorney and former executive director of America Rising PAC who advises Republican candidates in New Jersey and across the nation, including the New Jersey GOP. Dan and Alex are both experienced strategists who are currently in the room where high-level decisions are made. They will get together weekly with New Jersey Globe editor David Wildstein to discuss politics and issues.
Let’s talk about the vice presidential debate between JD Vance and Tim Walz. Besides saying who won, I hope you’ll offer thoughtful analysis as to how the two candidates performed and if you think it will impact the race.
Dan Bryan: Before the debate started, I tweeted (X’d?) that it would not move this campaign one iota. And I stand by that. Regardless of what happens at a VP debate, people aren’t voting for the VP.
So to the extent it matters, Vance did acquit himself well. He came across as reasonable and sane. To anyone watching that didn’t yet know him well, I think he left a good impression. Governor Walz started a bit shaky, steadying himself as he went along.
The reactions were interesting – pundits universally thought Vance won, but we soon saw that independent voters felt differently. The dial groups found two moments most compelling: Walz’s answer on abortion, and Vance’s nonanswer on January 6th.
To steal a William Goldman quote: nobody knows anything.
Alex Wilkes: JD Vance not only delivered a masterful performance, but he also elevated himself as a leader for a new generation of Republicans. He came across as whip smart, tough, and empathetic. Tim Walz, by comparison, presented himself as erratic and incapable of being one heartbeat away from assuming the highest office in the land. No one wants to vote for a self-described knucklehead when the world is on fire and multiple states are underwater.
Of course, the mainstream media reminded us vigorously afterwards that vice presidential debates don’t matter (yeah, if I were a Harris-Walz supporter, I wouldn’t want this one to matter either), but in an election that will be decided by extremely narrow margins, I do think it has the ability to make a difference. Just anecdotally, I’ve been approached by a number of people – many of whom I never thought would bother to watch a vice presidential debate – who reached out to tell me how impressed they were with Vance and how reassuring his steady presentation was. In other words, for people who may have been on the fence or leaning towards Trump, but not all the way there, Vance gave them a huge boost of confidence. And who can blame them? After Joe Biden and Kamala Harris’ embarrassing tenures as vice presidents, JD is a true pro.
A Stockton University poll released on Thursday shows that most New Jerseyans don’t know who New Jersey’s U.S. Senate candidates are. Democrat Andy Kim has favorables of 27%-18%, with 55% of registered voters saying that they don’t know who Kim is. And 81% of New Jersey doesn’t know who Republican Curtis Bashaw is; he has favorables of 9%-8%.
Alex: I think those numbers represent a race with two (relative) newcomers with zero statewide media. Don’t worry, folks; your Real Housewives recap will be right on time, but if you’re looking for any serious, thoughtful coverage of one of a few offices in your state with the power to effect major policy changes that will impact your life? Sorry, out of luck.
I do think that the numbers, however, give an outsider, entrepreneur like Curtis an opportunity to to really define himself and win over new voters in the upcoming New Jersey Globe debate!
Dan: This has been a quiet general election. My guess is that the average New Jerseyan doesn’t even know there’s a Senate race, and even fewer are actively following it.
That’s in part because this isn’t a competitive race. Cook Political Report has it as “Solid Democratic,” and they’re right. Andy Kim will win this election by double digits.
So it’s hard to criticize the public for not knowing much about a race that isn’t being covered by the media, or invested in by the campaigns. This election is a sleeper, which should make the Kim campaign happy.
U.S. Senate candidates Curtis Bashaw and Andy Kim will face off in their first debate on Sunday, October 6 at 8 PM, sponsored by the New Jersey Globe, On New Jersey, and the Rebovich Institute of New Jersey Politics at Rider University. What should the two candidates be looking to get out of the debate?
Dan: Andy Kim is in “do no harm” mode for the remainder of this campaign. He hasn’t swung big in messaging, advertising, or policy. That’s not a critique; it’s probably the smart move when you’re up by as much as I imagine he is.
Curtis Bashaw would need to shake up this campaign dramatically if he wants to make it competitive. He would need to be aggressive on offense, going after Congressman Kim and making a case to Harris voters as to why they should bullet vote for a Democratic president and a Republican senator.
To be clear, I think the perfect Republican candidate running the perfect race probably loses this election. New Jersey is not electing a Republican to the Senate any time soon.
Alex: While I wouldn’t underestimate Andy Kim in a debate since his entire life has been devoted to scoring the next political victory, I also wouldn’t count out Curtis’ ability to win over voters with his earnestness and unique set of credentials, particularly in an election where voters are looking to upend the status quo.
In a state with two expensive media markets, Curtis should look to get as much exposure as he can through crisp responses that showcase both his command on policy and his own great personal story. In an election where focus on the economy is key, Curtis will be the only person in that debate who has signed the front of checks and managed a payroll. He has built one of the finest businesses in New Jersey and created thousands of jobs and opportunities for entrepreneurs. The only thing Andy Kim has ever built is a Lego tower while collecting government checks. I think fair-minded voters will see the contrast very clearly.
Sue Altman has a new TV ad that paints her as pro-police, and she’s investing a significant amount of money to air it on New York broadcast TV. What do you think of the ad?
Alex: One of the dumbest acts of political self-immolation in our history has to be the Democrats’ embrace of the Defund the Police movement. Now that they’ve come down from their cotton candy high of burning down police precincts in 2020, consultants and ad makers are working overtime to clean up the records of radicals like Sue Altman. Try explaining “reimagining the police,” or the whatever idiotic formulation of words Democrats use to describe eliminating law enforcement to voters in Scotch Plains or Berkeley Heights. You can’t. It’s language that might work if you’re running for Congress in the ignominious Capitol Hill Autonomous Zone (“CHAZ”) in Seattle, where businesses burned and rapes and homicides went unsolved because of the way Sue Altman and her friends think about the world, but not in the leafy suburbs of New Jersey. Are we finished with the Sue Altman experience yet?
Dan: It’s the smart strategy for where this race is right now. Sue Altman is running in a district that has more Republicans than Democrats, so she has to make an appeal across the aisle. I don’t think this has much to do with
Republicans seem like they’re starting to sweat this election, which the Cook Political Report continues to grade “Toss Up.” They’re projecting confidence, but their actions tell the story: they’re worried. We’ve seen advertising increase and messaginging sharpen in these past few weeks.
This is all good news for Sue, whom many said wouldn’t be able to run a competitive race in the district. But that was always a fundamental misunderstanding of how races are run these days. It matters far more the case you can make for yourself, than what your opponent will say. Republicans call *every* Democratic candidate an anti-police extremist, no matter the situation. We should be running candidates that can excite the base and appeal to independent voters, which Sue does in spades.