Stomping Grounds: Sherrill’s Budget and Cabinet picks, Party Conventions, and Trump

New Jerseyans aren’t always civil, but it’s still possible for a liberal Democrat and a conservative Republican to have a rational and pleasant conversation about politics in the state.  Dan Bryan is a former senior advisor to Gov. Phil Murphy and is now the owner of his own public affairs firm, and Alex Wilkes is an attorney and former executive director of America Rising PAC who advises Republican candidates in New Jersey and across the nation, including the New Jersey GOP.  Dan and Alex are both experienced strategists who are currently in the room where high-level decisions are made.  They will get together weekly with New Jersey Globe editor David Wildstein to discuss politics and issues.

In advance of her first budget address on March 10, Gov. Mikie Sherrill went public last week with a warning that she is preparing to make some “tough choices” in balancing the budget as New Jersey heads toward a serious structural deficit and the risk of a depleted surplus within a few years.  Do you agree with her decision to make a pre-budget statement?  What’s her endgame?

Dan Bryan: Any Governor’s first state budget is the result of a brutal process. You take office in the middle of January and are expected to finalize a ~$60 billion budget in about six weeks. It’s a scramble to simply put *something* forward, let alone an administration-defining document whose every line item will be judged.

Though the fiscal picture she inherits is far better than it was in 2018, Governor Sherrill is still dealing with a real structural deficit in the billions of dollars. Wisely, she isn’t downplaying it – just because the state’s fiscal health has been worse in the past doesn’t mean she should face our current situation with anything less than urgency and candor. Dropping the curtain on the state’s fiscal picture ahead of the budget address was a smart way for her to set expectations and prime the media.

Alex Wilkes: I think Governor Sherrill used this speech to try to lower expectations over what – mathematically – will be a very difficult budget season for her.

The speech wasn’t for normies who won’t see it in our non-existent media, and it’s not for legislative Republicans who have been sounding the alarm on this for years.

The primary beneficiaries of the overspending that make up the fiscal cliff are special interests organizations and causes on the left. There’s no way to close the gap without making painful cuts to these budget items or significantly raising taxes. That means she either needs to cut the gravy train to politically important constituencies or raise taxes on a base without a lot of juice left to squeeze. I personally want to express my condolences to Newark school administrators who may not get to go to Honolulu on the taxpayer dime this year.

So, I think she’s trying to signal to her base that she’s going to need some wiggle room, but since New Jersey Democrats and their allies like the word “no” about as much as my kids do, I’m not sure how much flexibility she’s going to get.

All fifteen Republicans in the New Jersey State Senate voted to confirm Gov. Mikie Sherrill’s first five cabinet nominees.  Is this Republicans putting partisan politics behind them?  Should they be more combative?

Alex: Republicans are spooked after last November. I think they believe that if they can become crusaders for civility, Democrats won’t come in and somehow take any more of their lunch money. The problem is that only we think like that; Democrats here, on the other hand, are ruthless. They want it all. Do you think Democrats would have voted to confirm all of Jack’s nominees if he had won? Not a chance. The far left has been organized around the same set of radical principles for nearly a century. That’s why they’re pretty unapologetic when you point out to them that they once referred to men like John McCain and Mitt Romney as bigoted extremists; the ends always justify the means.

To be clear, I am sad that our country is like this – genuinely. I wish my kids could grow up in a time where different political beliefs could be left at a polite disagreement – not a religious war that divides families and friends into isolation and dark corners.

So maybe the radical civility proponents would say: Alex, we have to start somewhere. And maybe they’re right! I just hope no one is surprised when the schoolyard bully comes back for more.

Dan: In part, it reflects the quality of candidates Governor Sherrill put forward for her cabinet. How, exactly, would someone object to Jen Davenport as AG? Or Stephan Cha as DHS Commissioner? She assembled a cabinet fell of competent, qualified professionals, and the Legislature is responding positively. This is how the process should work!

But let’s be clear: it’s also a reflection of the complete disarray among New Jersey Republicans. They have no identity, no leader, and no strategy. Barring that, why would we expect them to put up any sort of a fight against a popular Governor and her cabinet nominees?

We’re almost two years past U.S. District Court Judge Zahid Quraishi’s decision to end county organization lines, but many of us, like Pavlov’s Dogs, are still glued to the county party endorsement process.  Is this just habit, or do they still matter?

Dan: When running for office, any excuse to engage with a group of local community leaders is a good one. Voters in this weekend’s Hunterdon County Convention consisted of local activists, community organizers, and municipal committees. No time spent with them is wasted; they are the backbone of a successful grassroots volunteer operation.

Do any of the candidates think these conventions will secure the nomination on their own? I certainly hope not. But they can still be a part of the winning strategy, if balanced appropriately with every other campaign priority.

If I ran a county committee, I’d ensure our process wasn’t a timesuck on candidates and their campaigns, and that they felt like the process added value to their campaign rather than detracted it. That’s one way to ensure fewer candidates take a pass on future conventions – in other words, they can find the value in participating, not just in winning.

Alex: I think it’s now of medium importance. On the one hand, the county convention is no longer going to crown a congressman in a single night, but on other hand, skipping it means losing out on engaging with the same people who will come to your beefsteaks and knock doors for you.

Zohan Mamdani seems to be adopting Phil Murphy’s plan to deal with Donald Trump: get more with sugar than with vinegar.  Mikie Sherrill is doing the opposite, making Trump her foil.  What’s the better political move here?

Alex: In all sincerity, opposing Trump is so central to Mikie’s brand as an affluent white woman from Montclair and an aspiring future cabinet secretary, I think she would find it difficult to deviate from that script. She has the political flexibility from November to engage with the White House in a more strategic way, but she’s already demonstrated that she’s not willing to use it to do anything that upsets the apple cart, so I don’t think this will be the exception.

Dan: I think the right approach is a mixture of both – President Trump is, very clearly, a man who cannot be trusted. Governor Sherrill is right to acknowledge this and set the relationship on her terms, not his.