New Jerseyans aren’t always civil, but it’s still possible for a liberal Democrat and a conservative Republican to have a rational and pleasant conversation about politics in the state. Dan Bryan is a former senior advisor to Gov. Phil Murphy and is now the owner of his own public affairs firm, and chief strategist for Tammy Murphy’s Senate campaign, and Alex Wilkes is an attorney and former executive director of America Rising PAC who advises Republican candidates in New Jersey and across the nation, including the New Jersey GOP. Dan and Alex are both experienced strategists who are currently in the room where high-level decisions are made. They will get together weekly with New Jersey Globe editor David Wildstein to discuss politics and issues.
Andy Kim and Tammy Murphy faced off in their first debate last Sunday. How were their performances? Does it affect the race going forward?
Dan Bryan: I’ll caveat yet again that I am not an objective source. That said, it’s pretty safe to say that Tammy outperformed expectations, and Congressman Kim underperformed them.
Tammy Murphy came across competent, composed, and energetic in her first debate. She took hits like a pro, and looked comfortable going on offense. She loosened up as the debate went along, and at times genuinely looked like she was enjoying herself. For a first time candidate, she surpassed all expectations.
Congressman Kim is certainly a capable debater, but given the debate experience gap, he should have dominated the night. Instead, his performance felt very…generic. He mostly gave the same answers any DCCC trained candidate would give, and he did so blandly. He didn’t play defense well, choosing to mostly ignore the charges Tammy leveled about his problematic voting record and his work for hard-right, anti-abortion Senator Dick Lugar. But to be clear, he was mostly competent and inoffensive. He didn’t lose the debate, so much as he didn’t win it.
Alex Wilkes: I thought Tammy was as good as she’s going to get, while Andy was a little underwhelming.
I thought it was smart of Tammy to tack hard to the left on “Medicare for All” to criticize Andy’s progressive credentials. From a policy standpoint, that’s a complete disaster, but I’ll play along here. It’s a good lesson from the 2020 Democratic primary where the progressive alternatives, like Elizabeth Warren, were confronted by Bernie on it, equivocated, and then got burned by the base. Kim’s defensiveness reminded me of Warren’s “uh…I have a plan for that!” Tammy, for all of her many deficiencies, is taking advantage of the ultimate freedom that comes with having no record and running against someone who does.
But speaking of Bernie, I think there’s plenty of appetite on the Democrats’ side for torching the establishment on the county line system. I warned in last week’s column that Andy should avoid a Rick Lazio-style aggressive confrontation against a female candidate, so my ears perked up when a pledge of all things was brought up. Well, it turns out Andy needed a little more Lazio. Where was the catchy slogan against the lines with a matching website, fundraising appeal, etc.? When asked about it again in the virtual spin room, he looked more like an annoyed Congressman from D.C. slouched in his chair than the fiery, grassroots activist outraged on behalf of the people.
Speaking purely as a parent, though, points to Andy Kim for posting the photo of his kids watching the debate. On brand and very cute.
Donald Trump said this week that vote-by-mail means voter fraud. That contradicts a growing belief from Republicans that not taking advantage of early voting and mail-in ballots is to their own detriment. How can Republicans overcome their likely nominee telling base voters they should cast VBMs?
Alex: Glad you asked.
First, like Donald Trump, I’m a vote-by-mail voter – thanks to Dan (Can I blame Dan? I blame Dan).
But the Democrats may one day regret conscripting me into what many on my side considered to be a VBM doom loop because it piqued my interest in what will clearly be a generational fight for our party.
Through the early research I have done this cycle through the firm I started focused on pre-Election Day voting, I can safely say that I am bullish on many opportunities we have to gain ground. We have a lot of gettable voters, but there won’t be a one-size-fits-all message or solution.
Now to the quote in question. Would that have been my choice? Of course not. But I will say this: many of Trump’s other statements about this both bash Democrats who bend the rules and then also call for participating in the process so as not to let them win (“swamping” them with mail-in ballots is often how he says it). In fact, in the Michigan speech you’re referencing, he ends his comments by saying “but Republicans must win, so you must go out and vote.”
Why is that framing important for a lot of voters? This should be instinctual for us as humans, but in case it’s not, I have seen the data to back it up: before people acknowledge what you have to tell them, they want to be heard first. In other words, our people are skeptical of the bullshit like Murphy’s all-VBM election in 2020 – and they want leaders who are unafraid to call it out – but with the right messaging and messenger would be happy to help us beat the Democrats at their own game.
This won’t be solved overnight, but there will only be so many cycles before the mechanics fail to protect Democrats from increased Republican participation and their own miserable policies.
Dan: We’re happy to have you as a VBM devotee, Alex! I’m with you, by the way. I used to love the ritual of voting on election day, but now that I’ve experienced the ease and convenience of voting by mail, I’ll never go back.
Simply put, Republicans can’t overcome their deficit any time soon. The Republican fumble of Vote by Mail was a generational mistake, one that even someone as talented as Alex can’t overcome by themselves. They are unilaterally disarming themselves on one of the most effective GOTV tools in a generation, while Democrats make more and more progress with each successive election.
It remains to be seen if the NJ GOP can turn the tide on VBM. But what baffles me is their inability to capitalize on early in-person voting. Rather than swimming against the Trump tide, why not spend their time and energy trying to get their voters out in person, and cast their votes ahead of election day? It seems like a massive missed opportunity for them.
Most of the oxygen in New Jersey is going to the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, but there are nine Republicans in the race for Bob Menendez’s seat. How to you handicap the GOP primary?
Dan: It certainly looks like the New Jersey GOP’s top-tier talent (such as it is) took a pass on the Senate race this cycle, despite a likely open seat. That, more than anything I can say here, is a serious indictment on what they think their chances are this November.
Whomever the candidate is, they’ll have to run in a cycle with Donald Trump at the top of the ticket, as Republicans flirt with Putin, attack reproductive freedoms at home, and even move to ban IVF. They are so far out of the mainstream in New Jersey, it’s difficult to see a serious path to victory, especially in a Presidential year.
So personally, I’m not overly concerned with who wins the Republican nomination. They’ll have to answer for the sins of their party all the same.
On a personal note, some of our family’s favorite places on the planet are owned and operated by Curtis Bashaw. If he’s the nominee, it’ll lead to some awkward nights on the lawn at Congress Hall this summer.
Alex: I think it’s great that there’s a big group from diverse backgrounds putting up a fight to the Democrats who are so corrupt that their latest and greatest in that seat – Bob Menendez – used his taxpayer-funded position to literally line his jacket pockets with cash. I mean it. In national conversations, New Jersey often – and unfairly, in my opinion – gets sloppily branded as “just a blue state” when the truth is in shades of purple. The fact that you have hard-working, honest, and decent people showing up at county conventions and gatherings around the state to offer people a real choice is good for everyone. The Murphys using their power and influence to strongarm their way into a Senate seat is just a slightly more refined version of Gold Bar Bob. The Molino di Parrano version, maybe. While Democrats hash it out in their backroom, I’m happy to have our candidates out talking to voters about issues and treating New Jersey families with respect – not as political pawns to be traded in their own twisted games.
Ras Baraka announced his run for governor on Tuesday night without any public statements or fanfare. What did you make of the unusual rollout of his campaign?
Alex: One time – during Ras Baraka’s term – it took me over 5 months to have a very narrow and simple OPRA request returned by the City of Newark. I then had to wait for a supervisor to return from a two-week vacation to put the documents onto a thumb drive because no one else in the office was authorized to use USB drives.
What was the question again? Oh, how did his roll out go? About as well as that did.
Dan: I’m not sure any political consultant in America would have agreed with how Mayor Baraka rolled out his campaign, and my bet is he would wear that statement as a badge of honor.
One thing is clear: Mayor Baraka will run his own race, on his own terms, and seems unconcerned with conventional political wisdom. His entrance adds another layer to what is shaping up to be an all-time classic Democratic primary in 2025.