New Jerseyans aren’t always civil, but it’s still possible for a liberal Democrat and a conservative Republican to have a rational and pleasant conversation about politics in the state. Dan Bryan is a former senior advisor to Gov. Phil Murphy and is now the owner of his own public affairs firm, and Alex Wilkes is an attorney and former executive director of America Rising PAC who advises Republican candidates in New Jersey and across the nation, including the New Jersey GOP. Dan and Alex are both experienced strategists who are currently in the room where high-level decisions are made. They will get together weekly with New Jersey Globe editor David Wildstein to discuss politics and issues.
A federal judge said on Thursday that Bob Menendez’s corruption trial will begin on time but delayed the trial of his wife and co-defendant, Nadine, until July due to medical issues. The U.S. Attorney had asked for one trial. What does that mean to the 8th district congressional primary, where the senator’s son wants a second term in Congress?
Alex Wilkes: I think Junior’s campaign would have much preferred it if his dad wasn’t in the news over the next few weeks, but I would think for them that the Senator’s legal problems are pretty much baked into their equation. It is New Jersey and we do live in the most ridiculous times, but it’s hard to imagine it getting much worse than trading state secrets for reclining chairs and luxury cars. I’m sure maneuvering around dad is already factored into their spending and strategic decisions.
The line would have undoubtedly helped Menendez, but its absence doesn’t signal the death of the Hudson County machine that turns out voters, turkeys, and pensions faster than Nadine rolled out of Mercedes Benz of Edison. I wouldn’t count Menendez out just yet.
Dan Bryan: I think Alex is mostly right. Clearly Congressman Menendez would rather this trial be pushed past election day, but I think it is fully baked in already. The headlines for Senator Menendez can’t get much worse, and the public has already made up their minds on him. Either the public will hold Senator Menendez against the Congressman, or they won’t.
I’ll also agree with Alex that the absence of the line does not translate into the absence of a political operation. No judge can tell Brian Stack not to turn out 10,000+ votes, or for Mayors Sacco and Sires to stand their operations down. There is no doubt that Mayor Bhalla has run a good campaign and that he benefits greatly from the move to block balloting, but Congressman Menendez still goes into election day with the support of the local political organizations that he needs to win. Without a real Senate primary, all eyes will be on CD8 this June.
As expected, Jack Ciattarelli entered the race for governor this week. Is it his time?
Dan: Jack Ciattarelli ran a good campaign in 2021. He picked a message and stuck to it religiously. He’s personable, he’s articulate, and he threads the needle of appealing to moderate republicans and extremists fairly well.
But let’s also be honest: in 2021 Ciattarelli benefited greatly from running in a historically good cycle for Republicans. And despite pulling off unlikely upsets in Virginia and special elections around the country, he still lost by more than 80,000 votes here. If that election were held under the reporting laws we have today and the vote-by-mail totals were announced at 8 PMon election night, I’m not sure we’d remember it as a particularly close election.
Jack Ciattarelli has a real chance to be the Republican nominee again, but he has a very good candidate in Jon Bramnick standing in his way.
Alex: First and foremost, as we know here in New Jersey, the fate of the odd-numbered year depends a great deal on the mood from the previous presidential or midterm election. That will impact all of the Republicans running.
I worked for Jack in the 2021 cycle, so I can’t pretend to not to have affection and admiration for a guy who not only watched my first born grow from an infant to a toddler, but who also worked his heart out and left all out on the field in a race that naysayers here in New Jersey and around the country said was over before it started. I’ll never forget the feeling of getting up every day knowing that something special was happening on the ground that polls and pundits didn’t – or wouldn’t – capture.
Most importantly, his race gave Republicans here a reason to believe again and the swift kick in the ass everyone needed to get up off the mat. The imminent dissolution of the line clearly creates a wide-open primary, but I think his name ID and continued campaign efforts will still benefit him, particularly if the race gets crowded.
In his announcement speech, Jack Ciattarelli called for mandatory term limits for state legislators — eight years in each house. Does a constitutional amendment to enact term limits stand a prayer of passing the New Jersey Legislature?
Alex: No, but it’s a smart idea to call for it. Voters love term limits even as their politicians who pay the concept lip service do not.
Dan: Voters famously hate Congress and love their Congressperson. This is no different. We’ll see things like term limits thrown around because there is only upside in running against Trenton, but I don’t think any serious person thinks that we can fix what’s wrong with Trenton by throwing out Legislators with experience.
Former Repubilcan Senator Ed Dur won’t rule out a run for governor and former Health Commissioner Shareef Elnahal is considering a run for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. If the county organizatiion lines goes away, will that entice even more people to take a shot at running next year?
Dan: I think the number of candidates in the race will only entice more candidates. As we said last week, with 5-6 real candidates in the race, the win number could be as low as 25% – anyone can convince themselves of being able to get to 25%!
I think a big Democratic field would be a good thing, and I can’t wait to see how this primary starts to play out. Our Democratic bench is incredibly strong in New Jersey, and our voters would benefit from a healthy, spirited primary cycle.
Alex: As in all things, moderation is key.
One extreme is the Murphy-ized line on steroids, where you have machine goons looking over your shoulder as you cast a secret ballot. The other is no line with no limits on fringe or perennial candidates.
I actually think that the Republican process this time around (a swan song we didn’t even know we were singing) was a good example of “the line” playing an appropriate referee role between the candidates and the party’s most involved members. No arm twisting, no threats—just good, old-fashioned shoe leather and local camaraderie.
To answer your question: yes, more people will run now that they are not forced to go through an intraparty process – and I am definitely excited to see what kind of political outsiders this will produce (we need them).
I’m sure Dan will agree with me here that without the line, some of the biggest losers you’ve ever seen in your life will fancy themselves George Washington for every election to come. The real question is now with the boogeyman gone, what will their excuse be about why they can’t raise money, get traction, etc.?