New Jerseyans aren’t always civil, but it’s still possible for a liberal Democrat and a conservative Republican to have a rational and pleasant conversation about politics in the state. Dan Bryan is a former senior advisor to Gov. Phil Murphy and is now the owner of his own public affairs firm, and Alex Wilkes is an attorney and former executive director of America Rising PAC who advises Republican candidates in New Jersey and across the nation, including the New Jersey GOP. Dan and Alex are both experienced strategists who are currently in the room where high-level decisions are made. They will get together weekly with New Jersey Globe editor David Wildstein – or, this week, with New Jersey Globe Washington reporter Joey Fox – to discuss politics and issues.
New Jersey Globe: Matt Gaetz as attorney general. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as Health and Human Services secretary. Tulsi Gabbard as director of national intelligence…… Thoughts?
Alex Wilkes: Love or hate the picks, President Trump is putting into action exactly what the American people asked for: radical change in Washington.
Every President has an unpredictable confirmation process. President Obama gave us the famous “Geithner Defense” when the former Treasury Secretary admitted to screwing up his tax returns with TurboTax. In this political environment, you can forget smooth sailing.
But here’s why it’s the perfect time to clean house. Buried somewhere in the political morass of this crazy cycle was the Supreme Court’s ruling overturning what was known as “Chevron deference” – a forty-year-old doctrine that gave executive branch agencies, like the EPA, an unbelievable amount of power to make their own rules with very little accountability. Now the courts will have more of a role in deciding whether or not an agency has acted within its statutory authority.
The federal government has grown in both breadth and depth far beyond what the average American can even imagine. COVID and the Justice Department’s politically-charged investigations alone exposed just how much power has shifted away from the people. If it takes unconventional picks to return that power to We the People? Count me in.
Dan Bryan: Well America, we’re getting the government we voted for! So far, former-and-future President Trump has nominated:
– A weekend Fox News host that was once flagged as a possible “insider threat” in the National Guard to run the Department of Defense
– A suspected “Russian asset” to run the Department of National Intelligence
– A man under House investigation for trafficking and having sex with an underage girl to the post of Attorney General
– A man who helped cause 80+ deaths in Samoa after spreading anti-vax disinformation to run Health and Human Services
It’s a murderers row (literally!). I hope America is prepared for the worst case scenario, because that’s what we’re about to get. Trump’s second term is going to make the chaos of Covid look like the era of good feelings.
On the bright side, through all of the death, destruction, and suffering this administration is seemingly about to cause, we’ll have Senate Republicans on record voting to confirm these colossally incompetent cabinet officials, which may actually put the Senate back in play in 2026.
Alright, back to Jersey. Josh Gottheimer launched his run for governor on Friday; he’s pitched himself throughout his tenure as a moderate Democrat willing to buck his party and work with Republicans when needed. Do you think Democratic primary voters will be receptive to that message? What about general election voters?
Dan: Let’s start here – Democrats have a number of fantastic candidates running (or about to run) in the 2025 gubernatorial primary.
I think Congressman Gottheimer suffers a bit from what made him successful. To win CD5, he ran a smart, hard, centrist race, running as an unashamed moderate. To his immense credit, he took a deeply red congressional district and turned it reliably blue, an achievement very few Democratic congressional members can claim.
But how will that centrist streak, which was so valuable in flipping and holding CD5, play statewide? There may be a path, and he plays to it well in his announcement video: affordability, affordability, affordability. He’ll hit the notes of lower taxes and more federal funding for the next seven months, which may find traction in a state living through an affordability crisis.
In the age of Trump, it’s fair to say it’s going to be difficult for a moderate Democrat to win a statewide primary in New Jersey. But I don’t think anyone who knows Congressman Gottheimer will write off his chances.
Alex: Josh started off his campaign with a video in which he insulted the nearly 2 million New Jerseyans who voted for Donald Trump and brought him within 6 points of winning the state by calling their vote “a horrible mistake.” Off to a great start!
His focus on affordability (even though it’s his policies that have driven up costs) is the better message for general election voters, but the real question is whether or not he can make it through the Democratic primary. Certainly, an expanding field and his war chest will help him. Without the county line, however, I think that the machine is in for an overdue reckoning from true progressives. Getting the popcorn ready.
A gubernatorial announcement from Gottheimer’s fellow House Democrat, Mikie Sherrill, should be coming shortly. Given how tight the margins are in the House right now – and given that both of their districts, especially Gottheimer’s, shifted way to the right in the 2024 presidential race – should Democrats be worried about losing Sherrill or Gottheimer from Congress if one of them wins the governor’s race?
Alex: I think the election took the wind out of Mikie’s sails more so than Josh’s. First, CD-5 has always been more competitive by voter registration than CD-11, so it’s a harder criticism to make of Josh. Second, the case for Mikie was the same case for Kamala: identity politics paired with a sharp focus on abortion. With her partial machine backing and fundraising potential, she’s certainly not out of the running, but I think the presidential race here rightfully made a lot of Democrats nervous. They’re worried that they’ve lost the ability to speak to parts of the coalition that they had long taken for granted about basic kitchen table issues – and they should be.
Dan: I don’t think voters will care, given that the margin in the house will likely be at least five (and possibly more). The vacancy caused by either Sherrill or Gottheimer would only last for a few months, and it’s very difficult to believe it will substantively matter to the party.
I’m sure other candidates in the race will try to make a meal out of their absences and the issues that could come with a potential vacancy, but I don’t see it mattering to voters.
We’re now nearly two weeks out from Donald Trump’s shocking surge among New Jersey voters. Are we any closer to understanding why it happened? And why do you think downballot Democrats – who flipped three county offices and held onto all of their congressional seats – were able to do so much better than the top of the ticket?
Dan: As we get further from the election, I think one thing is crystallizing: working people in America are hurting, and Democrats aren’t connecting with them.
Let’s start here. It has never been more expensive to be a young family in New Jersey. Housing prices are astronomical, putting home ownership out of reach for many working families. Daycare can cost thousands of dollars every month. Healthcare costs are out of control. Young families are being told to save $300k-500k per child for college. Senior care and long term disability costs are totally and completely unaffordable.
But let’s even say you can afford the necessities, or you’re at least somewhat stable with your finances. The cost of things like restaurants, sports tickets, concerts, hotels, and vacation rentals are skyrocketing. There isn’t a conversation I have with a friend or neighbor that doesn’t leave us shaking our heads at the cost of *any* activity with our kids.
So who can blame working and middle class families for feeling like they’re getting screwed from every direction? And then the Democratic Party either doesn’t speak to your concerns, or they try to convince you to look at economic indicators showing that, sorry, you’re wrong, the economy is Actually Good. Try talking to a struggling family about GDP growth and core inflation instead of dollars and cents in their pockets, and you get a result that looks a whole lot like last week’s election.
I think Democrats need to make it clear that they understand the struggles of working and middle class families in America. Get out of DC and talk to people in your districts, then tell their stories to illustrate your values and policy positions. Do the work to tangibly help people in a real way, and then never, ever shut up about it.
Alex: Well, one of the first things I learned when I came to New Jersey was that the politicians and operatives consider the federal offices to be…a bit of an afterthought. As my husband said to me bluntly when I got here, “Alex, what do you think Bob Menendez cares about more: being a U.S. Senator or controlling Hudson County?”
As long as Democrats get to keep their graft and corruption machine going at the local level, who cares how anyone votes for President? The real question is what happens when that President – a unique and revered figure among many of his voters – comes in and tells his coalition that the Democrats here have been scamming us too?