New Jerseyans aren’t always civil, but it’s still possible for a liberal Democrat and a conservative Republican to have a rational and pleasant conversation about politics in the state. Dan Bryan is a former senior advisor to Gov. Phil Murphy and is now the owner of his own public affairs firm, and Alex Wilkes is an attorney and former executive director of America Rising PAC who advises Republican candidates in New Jersey and across the nation, including the New Jersey GOP. She is currently the campaign manager for Curtis Bashaw’s U.S. Senate race. Dan and Alex are both experienced strategists who are currently in the room where high-level decisions are made. They will get together weekly with New Jersey Globe editor David Wildstein to discuss politics and issues.
This is the water cooler question of the week: in the first Democratic primary without county organization lines, and maybe the last one for Republicans, what are your takeaways after seeing the results of the June 4 primary election?
Alex Wilkes: Man, this election was wild. We had counties with lines, counties without lines, and a federal court ruling that very nearly upended absolutely everything.
I think the line mostly performed according to expectations across the board on our side, but I’m not sure our line-less counties tell the story reformers were hoping to show (in general). In Burlington, for example, our U.S. Senate nominee Curtis Bashaw received a plurality of the vote, while in Atlantic, it was a clear majority for the campaign. In both places, Bashaw had the support of the county organization, and the paid voter contact to each was about equal. In other words, Burlington performed how observers would expect a block ballot design to work, but the “overperformance” under similar conditions in Atlantic confounds their entire argument.
The lawsuit is still in progress, however, and I have a sneaking suspicion that this is not the last we will see of “the line.” For one, Democrats have fresh arguments to show that the line was not the enemy of democracy that Andy Kim had once promised. At the state level, I also think that if Democrats were so bold as to dismantle ELEC and OPRA within the span of a year, what makes everyone so certain that they won’t fight to preserve the line through the courts or the legislature
Dan Bryan: Clearly, New Jersey did not see an anti-establishment wave in Tuesday’s primaries. Endorsed party candidates won in CD3, CD8, Passaic County Sheriff, and most other county and municipal races. This could be due to a combination of factors, but I think Democrats did the simple things to win: they recruited good candidates, ran solid races, and they out-raised and out-communicated their opposition with messaging focused on helping working families.
But anyone running against the establishment in this year’s primary did so taking on the long odds of an off-the-line primary, which may have limited the amount of serious candidates in the field. We didn’t know the line was gone until early April. No one had time to decide to run and prepare a campaign knowing there would be no line in this race, which could make a significant difference.
Rob Menendez won the Democratic primary by almost 15 percentage points in a race that he looked vulnerable. How did he do it?
Dan: A very good candidate ran a very good race with the backing of the key local elected officials he needed to win.
Rob Menendez and his team ran a fantastic campaign. Under the guidance of Mike Soliman, one of the best strategists in the game, they kept a level head under heavy fire from the Bhalla campaign. But Rob didn’t get stuck in a defensive crouch – he punched back and played offense, before pivoting to his core campaign messaging. That’s a lesson any candidate can learn from.
Mayor Bhalla deserves credit for running against all odds and being aggressive, but I think the negative tenor of his campaign turned off some potential supporters. Look no further than the 10% of anti-Menendez voters that decided to support Kyle Jasey instead of Mayor Bhalla. This is likely partly due to the negatives on Bhalla that the Menendez camp countered with, but I think it’s also due to early and often negative messaging from the Bhalla campaign.
Progressives/reformers tend to gravitate toward positive, unifying campaigns, and this one just felt too negative from the get-go. It’s hard to build a groundswell of support that way, and that’s what Mayor Bhalla needed if he wanted to overcome extremely challenging district math.
Alex: Honestly? He wasn’t a wimp. Someone took a swing at his family, and he came back with not just a knock-out punch, but also a positive message and a cause around which people could rally. The details from his father’s case give me second-hand embarrassment, and a different kind of campaign could have easily spiraled under the pressure.
The organizing prowess of Brian Stack and HCDO, of course, helped him immensely, but without a line, the race could have gotten turned on its head if Menendez came out early as sheepish and apologetic for his father’s conduct (which, to our knowledge, has nothing to do with him). That early defiance created a challenge for Bhalla, and instead of superseding it with an uber-progressive, positive, guerilla campaign, he allowed a court case in lower Manhattan to become his campaign’s central organizing principle. Hey, come to think of it, that sounds familiar.
It seems like one of the biggest upsets of election night was in Passaic County. Many people predicted that Jerry Speziale would win and possibly bring county commissioners along with him, but the organization-backed candidate, Thomas Adamo, won by about 15 points. What happened there?
Alex: I think if we are truly in a line-less future (and I have my doubts – see above), non-establishment candidates on both sides of the aisle will be in for a rude awakening if they write off a good county organization, even without the preferential ballot position. On the flip side, I think there have been one too many candidates who have been equally mistaken that winning “the line” meant strong organizational support would follow. Strong parties are still the ticket to success.
Dan: We all need to give Passaic County Democrats a lot of credit here. Rumors of their demise may have been greatly exaggerated – in the face of a strong county-wide primary against a well known and well funded candidate for Sheriff, Adamo cruised to a double-digit victory and helped beat back county commissioner challengers.
Passaic County Democrats were able to effectively manage a campaign rather than simply rely on the line to win. They focused their time and energy on VBM and early voting, and executed a strong GOTV operation on election day.
In other words, the future of Passaic County’s success will look a lot like their past success, built on a foundation of the solid fundamentals of organizing and GOTV. Kudos to Chairman Currie for winning a huge race when the winds seemed to be blowing against him.
New Jersey’s U.S. Senate race has begun. Post-primary, what should we be watching for in the Curtis Bashaw vs. Andy Kim vs. Bob Menendez contest?
Dan: A sincere congratulations to Curtis and his fantastic campaign manager (you may have heard of her) for beating Donald Trump’s endorsed candidate in a Republican primary last week. There aren’t many people in America that can say they’ve done that. And I do believe that Curtis Bashaw is about as good as Republicans can possibly do if they want to seriously contend for a Senate seat.
That said…this will not be a close general election. Andy Kim will be New Jersey’s next US Senator. Congressman Kim has connected with a broad electorate, he has experience winning tough races, and he’s running under President Biden on the November ballot. Bob Menendez, IF he ends up on the ballot, doesn’t have the ability to take enough votes away from Kim to make this race competitive.
The Cook Political Report rates this race as Solid D, and I think that’s right. Something drastic would have to happen to change the dynamics of this race.
Alex: I think both our candidate selection and political environment give us a once-in-a-generation chance to win this seat back.
First, in Curtis Bashaw, you have a non-traditional, balanced voice that opens up opportunities for the Republican Party to expand beyond its base and into disaffected unaffiliated and Democratic voters. Second, there is little reason to believe that Joe Biden will win New Jersey by anything close to his 2020 margin. Why? Americans have lost faith in the Democratic Party to manage the main concerns of our time, including the economy and the border. In times where you have seen Senate races take a surprising turn, an angry electorate looking to change direction has been the key indicator for success.
Second, Bob Menendez’s independent run is clearly helpful, but I think that it speaks to an overall divide in the Democratic Party that is in and of itself an undercurrent for change. Andy Kim is the most politically far-left candidate Democrats have ever run statewide. How will his calls for ceasefire, for example, play with traditional parts of their coalition when compared with even Menendez’s record of supporting Israel?
Finally, national Democrats are spread thin across their own map this cycle, and they don’t love Andy Kim. If he does find himself in serious trouble, it might be difficult for him to get air cover.
Once voters hear from Curtis, they will understand why Republican primary voters bucked the conventional wisdom in choosing him to break the Democrats’ 52-year monopoly on this seat.
Is there anything else about the primary election that you’d like to talk about?
Alex: Real talk? Counties need more accountability from our media (such as it is) and taxpayers in terms of their reporting. In a first-world country – and even with pre-Election Day voting – there should be no reason that we don’t have greater than 50% of the precincts reporting at a reasonable hour. The delays only serve to create unnecessary distrust and confusion during heated, chaotic moments when reliable information is most needed. If Bergen County Clerk John Hogan can find six-to-seven figures in his budget to send out MASSIVE, glossy calendars with his name and photo, along with multiple reminders to vote, he can find some more help and invest in a system that’s more sophisticated than an updated PDF being uploaded every 2 hours.
Also, about those mailers…if we are truly in a post-line world here, I will be very interested to see how creative clerks will get in using their budgets to nudge people to vote (or not).
Dan: The establishment had a very good night on Tuesday. They won every important race at a federal, county, and local level, and put many fears of a post-line world to rest. There were plenty of relieved County Chairs on Wednesday morning, happy to see that the end of the county line didn’t seriously hurt their operations.
But I don’t believe Tuesday’s outcome means anti-establishment progressive candidates don’t have a future in New Jersey. I believe they do. But it’s going to take a consistent effort over the course of years to build a movement that could see sustained success.
Realistically, could we see competitive primaries (and some upsets) as soon as next year? Maybe. But if progressives and anti-establishment Democrats are serious about achieving success here, they’ll have to do the long, hard work of fundraising, team building, and organizing to compete.
In a post-line world, the things that win an election in New Jersey are the same things that *always* won an election in New Jersey.