New Jerseyans aren’t always civil, but it’s still possible for a liberal Democrat and a conservative Republican to have a rational and pleasant conversation about politics in the state. Dan Bryan is a former senior advisor to Gov. Phil Murphy and is now the owner of his own public affairs firm, and Alex Wilkes is an attorney and former executive director of America Rising PAC who advises Republican candidates in New Jersey and across the nation, including the New Jersey GOP. Dan and Alex are both experienced strategists who are currently in the room where high-level decisions are made. They will get together weekly with New Jersey Globe editor David Wildstein to discuss politics and issues.
Joe Biden is gone from the ticket, and Kamala Harris is now the presumptive Democratic nominee for president. How do you forecast the Harris vs. Trump campaign?
Alex Wilkes: First of all, what a sham. The Democrats love democracy so much that they simply have to undermine it to…save it?
The media can gloss this up however they want to (more on that later), but nothing about this is normal.
Regardless of your politics, you have to admit that it is troubling that in less than a month, we have watched a President disintegrate live on television and then, despite having received the votes of millions of primary voters, be pushed out of the race. Not only has he been neatly swapped without the messiness of, you know, a primary election, but we also don’t even know if he is physically capable of carrying out the rest of his duties.
Not normal.
Second, Kamala will be much more difficult to beat, so Republicans need to smarten up.
The mainstream media and the Democratic establishment have been desperate to stop the downward spiral since the June debate, and Kamala is an imperfect, but workable replacement. You can see it in the interference they are already running for her; so-called “fact checkers” are working overtime to completely rewrite her time as Biden’s Border Czar and a supporter of the lawless criminals who burned down our cities during the 2020 riots.
Still, there’s a reason that she dropped out of the 2020 primaries before a single contest, and no one makes the case better than she does. Expect the clips of her equivocally stating she wants to ban fracking, do away with red meat, and use taxpayer dollars to fund health care for illegal immigrants to repeat on loop. To be successful, Republicans must keep the focus on her extreme record and not lose sight of the important early voting and vote-by-mail deadlines on the horizon.
Dan Bryan: The Trump campaign is in deep trouble. They were banking on running against President Biden who, whether fairly or unfairly, suffered from low poll numbers and sagging enthusiasm. The JD Vance pick oozed arrogance – they’re going to win no matter what, so why not pick a boot licker (I won’t comment on his other activities) who will have no opinions of his own and never overshadow the candidate?
But things have changed. I’m very sorry Republicans don’t think it’s fair for Democrats to nominate the strongest candidate to win in November, but that’s what they’ve done. Polls are already showing an immediate surge in black and Latino support, and enthusiasm and fundraising have been off the charts. There is a very long way to go in this election, but the Harris campaign’s first week showed nothing short of perfect execution.
Though Democrats are in a far better place today than they were a week ago, Donald Trump is still the favorite in November. He has more money, his favorability ratings are higher than they’ve ever been a post-assassination attempt, and he’s a known quantity running against someone many Americans are getting to know for the first time.
Right now this race is probably a little worse than a coin flip, but I’d bet on Harris. Democrats now need to focus on nailing the things within their control – the VP pick and rollout, the DNC in August, and the implementation of Harris’s paid media campaign.
Harris has a narrow window to pick a running mate. Who should it be? (Dan, you can’t say Phil Murphy.)
Dan: Vice President Harris finds herself in an enviable position – she is choosing from the strongest Democratic bench in recent memory. Any one of the names floating around (Kelly, Beshear, Shapiro, Waltz, Whitmer, Buttigieg, among others) would be a home run.
So it’s a good problem to have, but it’s still a problem. Much of the discussion so far has centered around West Orange’s own Mark Kelly (though I believe he may have moved away). Senator Kelly is a veteran, an astronaut, a fighter in the Senate, and a solid speaker. He’d appeal to moderates in a race that could be decided by so few independent voters in the middle.
I think it’s extremely tempting for Harris to choose Governor Shapiro and take Pennsylvania off the map, as there is no path to 270 without Pennsylvania. He’s also charismatic and a fantastic speaker, in addition to being a stellar Governor.
I like Beshear a lot, but I don’t think Harris will pick a southern Governor, as it doesn’t really “get” them anything. Same with Buttigieg – he’s *fantastic* with the press and there’s no doubt he’d be a wonderful candidate, but going from DOT Secretary to VP seems like a reach.
I think the pick may well be a dark horse – Governor Waltz. I don’t think Minnesota is really in play (if it is, Democrats may not have to worry about the rest of the states) but he can appeal to crucial midwest states like Wisconsin and Michigan. Labor loves him. His backstory is compelling, having been a high school teacher before turning his sights on politics. I don’t think he’s the favorite, but he should be seriously in the mix.
Alex: I won’t regurgitate the sunbelt versus rust belt arguments here because I’m not entirely convinced that the Vice Presidential candidate historically carries a ton of weight, even in these uncharted waters. I will say, however, how awful it is that one of the top choices, Governor Josh Shapiro, has been potentially disqualified for his Jewish faith. What a sad state for the Democratic Party that they care more about the lunatics who raised Palestinian flags over Union Station this week. Shame on them.
Bob Menendez has resigned — not until August 20, but he’s still leaving the Senate. What are your thoughts on who Governor Murphy should pick?
Alex: Tammy Wynette said that she would stand by her man, and I’m going to do the same with my answer from last week and stand by Tammy (Murphy, that is).
Phil Murphy doesn’t owe the ingrates in his party anything, so I think he should make this a real Christmas in July moment for the missus.
Dan: Tammy already took herself out of the running, so as fantastic as I believe she would be for the post, the Governor will be looking elsewhere.
I don’t think this will be a difficult process. The job description for the Interim Senator will be straightforward: show up to work, stand up for New Jersey, and ensure Democrats in the Senate have the numbers they need on any critical votes. The short lists I’ve seen floating around seem to make sense, and I look forward to New Jersey once again having representation in DC it can be proud of.
There is no doubt that Senator Menendez had many accomplishments during fifty years of public service. Does he have any shot at a balanced legacy, or will history remember him only as Gold Bar Bob?
Dan: It’s a great question. I’ve known Senator Menendez for over a decade, having worked closely with his office during my tenure in Hoboken City Hall. We had many requests for funding: when the waterfront walkway collapsed, when a Superstorm filled 3/4 of the city like a bathtub, when Mayor Zimmer advocated for over $300 million to address the problem, just to name a few.
Each time, Senator Menendez and his office were incredibly responsive, and they fought like hell to get us the funds we sought. He prided himself with being a “pothole Senator” – one that cared just as much about tangible quality of life issues in our state, as he did about the broader objectives of the Democratic Party.
Let’s be clear, even before we get to the indictments, he wasn’t perfect. He picked petty fights often, and was broadly antagonistic to the Obama administration.
But the indictments and ensuing legal battles will be all anyone remembers about him. Not his advocacy after Hurricane Sandy, not his fight for progressive policies, and certainly not his chairmanship of the Foreign Relations Committee. He will forever be remembered as Gold Bar Bob, and that is a real shame.
Alex: I think he’ll ultimately be remembered as an old-time pol from a bygone era in New Jersey politics, whose funny business finally got the best of him. Who knows? The way Netflix cranks out content these days, he could become the modern-day “American Hustle,” shot on location and everything!