Stomping Grounds: Donald Trump and Tom Moran

New Jerseyans aren’t always civil, but it’s still possible for a liberal Democrat and a conservative Republican to have a rational and pleasant conversation about politics in the state. Dan Bryan is a former senior advisor to Gov. Phil Murphy and is now the owner of his own public affairs firm, and Alex Wilkes is an attorney and former executive director of America Rising PAC who advises Republican candidates in New Jersey and across the nation, including the New Jersey GOP. Dan and Alex are both experienced strategists who are currently in the room where high-level decisions are made. They will get together weekly with New Jersey Globe editor David Wildstein to discuss politics and issues.

Donald Trump delivered his first State of the Union address of his second term this week.  What are your takeaways?

Dan Bryan: Well, the stock market is down, essential government services are being slashed, the jobs report was the worst it’s been in over a decade, measles is making a comeback, and inflation is back: I’ve got to admit, even I didn’t think they could do this much damage in a month.

President Trump mostly stuck to meaningless culture war issues and vapid nationalism, which is the bread and butter of the modern-day GOP. But these issues poll well, and they’ve been effective for him. We’ll see how long the culture war issues can continue to carry the day for him in the face of a disastrous first six weeks in office.

Alex Wikes: The phrase from the President’s Joint Address – “swift and unrelenting” – about sums up both the President’s actions in his first weeks in office and the speech he gave to memorialize it. Now, depending on where you stand, this could be a great thing or the end of days. For the latter – the ridiculous purple-haired, grumpy, cane-waving, bingo placard-carrying set – I suspect they were pulling their hair out. After all, they had resigned themselves for the last four years to having a dithering old man as their standard bearer, who did nothing except for make it more expensive for Americans to live, opened our border wide open to illegal migrants from all over the world, surrendered Afghanistan in the most abominable way, and essentially gave Russia a wink and a nod to invade Ukraine.

By contrast, President Trump presented a set of accomplishments in the first six weeks and a clear agenda with energy and vigor. Nothing encapsulated this more than the issue of securing the homeland. In February, illegal border crossings fell to the lowest level ever recorded – down a shocking 96% from the all-time high of the Biden Administration. Trump summed it up simply when he said, you didn’t need complex new legislation to accomplish that (as Joe Biden so often claimed); you just needed a new president.

President Trump told Americans what he planned to do for the last four years (really, the last 50 years, when you look back), the people voted for him based on that agenda, and he is doing exactly what he said he would do. That’s why polls show wide approval for both the speech and his first few weeks in office. So now Democrats need to decide if they want to sit on their hands while the nation applauds a child cancer survivor and a new West Point cadet or meet Americans where they are.  So far, it looks like they’ve learned absolutely nothing from the last election.

Democrats are facing criticism for their behavior during the presidential address.  Was their public disparagement in the best interest of their party?

Alex: I am old enough to remember when Congressman Joe Wilson’s “You Lie!” during President Obama’s Joint Address in 2009 caused pearl-clutching and widespread fainting in D.C. Fast forward a decade or so, and we have a Congressman waving a cane and screaming at the President to the point where he needed to be removed (side note: can we please refrain from the use of projectiles when protesting a man who has been shot at twice?).

Democrats couldn’t decide who they wanted to be on Tuesday night, reflecting the state of disarray in which they find themselves right now. Is it Elissa Slotkin, the mild-mannered senator from a swing state in a sensible navy suit, giving the sanitized response? Is it the Pink Ladies whose colorful suits represented being woman in the party that has yet to show an ability to define what a woman actually is? Is it the 25+ senators who thought they were real baddies delivering identical versions of a profanity-laced video? Maybe it’s Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett “crip walking” around the Longworth House Office Building in protest on TikTok. It all kind of felt like we were watching a collective mental breakdown. The overall response was an unmitigated disaster.

Dan: There’s only one thing Democrats can agree on when it comes to pushing back on Trump: we’re all doing it wrong. I’m not sure what the right answer is, but I’m positive it’s not politely holding up auctioneer signs and coordinating outfits.

I’m sure this will anger some in my party, but I’m genuinely not sure that all-out rebellion and chaos in the House chamber during a joint speech from the President is a great look for Democrats. I think there is an understandable hunger from the party base for Democrats to do *something*, and it would certainly make for fun TV, but does it get us any closer to winning the voters we need back from Trump and the GOP?

I do feel confident about one thing: the only constants throughout two Trump administrations have been chaos and incompetency. I’d spend more time laying out a case for how Trump is failing on his promises to voters and terrible at his job, and less time swinging at every single pitch they see.

Let’s bring this back to New Jersey.  We’re now more than six weeks into the Trump presidency — how will this effect primary and general elections for governor and the legislature this year?

Dan: President Trump’s approval ratings are historically horrific for any President this early in their term. Clearly, voters are quickly souring on the chaos, confusion, and incompetence coming from the White House. If that continues (and we have no reason to believe it won’t), Democrats stand to benefit in general elections in ’25 and ’26.

I think Democratic primary voters are looking for candidates that are willing to fight, and ones that can win. We saw this in 2017 and 2018 – Democratic primary voters made allowances for candidates they thought could win, rather than ones that passed every purity test.

Alex: I think that the conventional wisdom that New Jersey will go in the opposite direction of the White House should be thrown out this year. From a tactical standpoint, Republicans would be foolish not to embrace President Trump and his agenda because it was his voters that narrowed his margin here to a shocking 6 points, despite not having spent any money to do so (and, YES, Democrats did actually spend money because they went so heavy on broadcast in the final stages of the campaign). If we want to win in a lower turnout election, we need those voters who came out to support President Trump and his policies.

I also think that with few exceptions, the Democratic gubernatorial nominee will simply not get that New Jersey is becoming more of a purple state and has been for the last 6 years. Take an issue like biological men playing in girls’ sports and being permitted to use girls’ locker rooms. An overwhelming number of Americans do not support this, but you will be hard-pressed to find a Democratic gubernatorial candidate who would be willing to call this out (even as you see some fissures with assembly candidates—some of whom seem to be more in tune with voters). Bonus question, just for fun: are leaders behind the gubernatorial front-runners like Brian Stack, Joe DeVincenzo, and Albio Sires willing to put their name on that policy?

I’ll be mocked for bringing up a “meaningless cultural issue” here, but 1) it’s actually not, and 2) Republicans have run the property tax only campaign a million times and lost. You need a cost of living+ campaign. You need something that animates people to turn out in numbers that exceed the Democrats’ machine. For some, it will be a cultural issue like girls’ sports. For others, it will be Democrats making New Jersey and some of its municipalities a “sanctuary” for illegal immigrants. Fortunately, Democrats have given us so much material out of Trenton when they thought no one was watching that I suspect this will be exceedingly fun.

Tom Moran publicly blasted his former bosses at NJ.com and the former newspaper once known as the Star-Ledger for the way they’re treating him, including the rejection of his Op-Eds that he’s willing to write for free.  Since Tom didn’t speak up on behalf of journalists who lost their jobs during the Ledger’s downsizing period, does he have the moral authority to complain?

Alex: Sounds like his moral authority is about as useful as that of Jim Tedesco when he unilaterally moved to shut down the Garden State Plaza during the pandemic. 

Dan: Once again, David, you’ve caused me to write and delete about 12 different answers. All I’ll say here is that I don’t like to see anyone out of work, and I wish everyone involved all the best.

David Wildstein:  I’ll weigh in on this one.  At least Tom remains consistent — stunningly self-righteous from the newsroom and the sidelines.  The Star-Ledger’s long, painful demise isn’t Enrique Lavin’s fault.  For Tom, much like Christopher, it’s never his fault.