Stomping Grounds: ’23 Issues, Bail Reform, Bear Hunts, and Romney’s call to pass the torch

New Jerseyans aren’t always civil, but it’s still possible for a liberal Democrat and a conservative Republican to have a rational and pleasant conversation about politics in the state.  Dan Bryan is a former senior advisor to Gov. Phil Murphy and is now the owner of his own public affairs firm, and Alex Wilkes is an attorney and former executive director of America Rising PAC who advises Republican candidates in New Jersey and across the nation.  Dan and Alex are both experienced strategists who are currently in the room where high-level decisions are made.  They will get together weekly with New Jersey Globe editor David Wildstein to discuss politics and issues.

New Jersey Globe: Vote-by-mail ballots go out a week from tomorrow and there it seems to me voters have a lot of issues on their plate — in no particular order: taxes, abortion, sex education curriculum and parental rights, dead whales and off-shore wind turbines, guns, gas stoves, electric cars, Joe Biden and Donald Trump, impeachment, deaths of veterans in nursing homes,  and migrants that could be moved to Atlantic County.  Can campaigns and voters handle this many issues?  Will legislative races just come down to generic party ballots?

Dan Bryan: Republican messaging seems to be careening wildly in every direction depending on the news of the day. I’m no expert, but that doesn’t seem like a recipe for success. Contrast that with Democratic messaging, which has remained laser focused on core issues: affordability, women’s healthcare, gun safety, and the economy. Democrats tend to talk about too many niche issues and not enough about “kitchen table” issues, but that’s not a mistake our legislative candidates are making this cycle.

But if this race does come down to a generic party ballot, that’s good news for Democrats. Not only do we outnumber Republicans in New Jersey by a million voters, we have an incumbent Governor that remains persistently popular, to the endless frustration (and denial) of many in our state.

Alex Wilkes: The difference is that the issues Republicans are running on throughout all 40 districts (each to varying degrees) have a unifying theme voters can easily understand: Democrats have gotten drunk with power under one-party rule. Each of our issues also has its roots in real policies happening in real time. Costly electric vehicle mandates are being pushed through at a break-neck speed. Trenton is suing school districts over parental notification policies. A DOJ report did find that state-run veterans homes under Phil Murphy provided a constitutionally deficient and abhorrent level of care.

What do Democrats have by contrast? Predictable smears and ads that sound like bad AI about abortion that are so attenuated that national abortion groups specifically declined to get involved in this year’s election here. So have fun running on an illustrious record of teaching anal sex to third graders, I guess!

NJ Globe: Former Gov. Chris Christie’s bail reform was the reason why his former aide, Kevin Tomafsky, who was arrested last month on charges that he paid a man so that he could rape his six-year-old daughter, was released from jail on his own recognizance and allowed to return to his mother’s home in Washington Township.  The Republican Senate candidate in that district says bail reform is to blame; the Democrat, who voted for bail reform, says the judge misapplied the intent of the law.  What’s the best strategy for both sides as an uncomfortable and horrific story becomes a campaign issue? 

Alex: First, this story makes my stomach turn, and I pray that the little girl involved is getting the help she needs. No child should ever be exposed to this filth.

For Republicans running this year – and particularly fresh-faced candidates – there’s no love lost between bail reform policies that were once a bipartisan cause and the dangerous times in which we now find ourselves. The reform policies may have had good intentions, but coupled with the lawlessness – supported by many Democrats – that came out of the 2020 summer riots, along with terrible ideas like “no chase” policies, we have created an environment with too many outcomes that put criminals above law-abiding citizens. Republican candidates can easily call for reforms here with no pushback.

The weight of the blame undoubtedly falls on Democrats here who, for example, allowed sophisticated, international car theft rings to develop and terrorize our neighborhoods — all while blaming the car manufacturers instead of the people who actually stole the cars. This is where I lose some of the Democrats, who privately wring their hands at Murphy’s more extreme policies but are too chicken to come out and grab the big middle on some of this stuff.

Dan: I agree with Alex – this story is disgusting. There’s a special place in Hell for anyone who exposes children to trauma like this.

Let’s be clear on one point: New Jersey’s leaders wisely included the dangerousness of the individual as a major factor in determining pretrial detention, which has allowed New Jersey to avoid the pitfalls of other states like New York that do not consider the defendant’s criminal history in most circumstances.

I’m not an expert on the specifics of this case, but there are no crimes more heinous than the sexual assault of a child. This certainly seems like a situation where pretrial detention should have been appropriate. In my view, the judge got this very, very wrong. We need to be able to tell the difference between the fault of the system, and the fault of an individual judge.

Any discussion on criminal justice in New Jersey must start with this acknowledgement: the facts show that New Jersey is one of the safest states in the country, because of our sensible criminal justice policies and gun safety laws. And our bail reform initiative is a national model. When it passed, it had strong support from leaders of both parties and all three branches of government.

If there are tweaks that can be made to the system to make it better, I’m sure both parties would be open to those — that’s smart policy and smart politics. But if Republicans propose going back to the days when low-level offenders were kept in jail before they were found guilty of anything simply because they couldn’t afford bail, New Jersey is smart enough to reject going backwards to an outdated and unjust approach.

Democrats should focus on the central principle of bail reform — whether someone is in jail or not should depend on the risk posed to the community, not how much money they have.

NJ Globe: An animal rights group is telling Democrats to stay home and not back Democratic legislative candidates unless the state stops the black bear hunt scheduled to begin next month.  How many single-issue bear hunt voters are out there, and what do you think of the strategy of telling people to skip an election?

Dan: The bear hunt has been an incredibly difficult and complex issue for years. Governor Murphy did ban the hunt, but more recently due to a rebounding population and safety concerns, he made the decision to reinstate it. I understand some in the animal rights community are frustrated, and I hope that they take the time to look at the whole picture and understand the Governor’s efforts and intent before giving up on the entire Democratic process.

Speaking for myself, I can’t imagine not voting, especially if it’s to punish the party I’d prefer to be in leadership. That’s kind of like gripping tight to a hot coal because you’re angry at someone else. Civic participation is at the core of our democracy – nothing should keep us home on election day. And from a purely practical perspective, if this group wants politicians to pay attention and hear the voices of their members, I’d think they’d want to encourage their members to vote, not to stay home.

Alex: No one wants to think about killing bears, but, in fairness, the vast majority of the sportsmen who do engage in these hunts treat their missions with dignity and care. Speaking as a mom of young kids, who regularly gets “Bear Sighting” alerts from my town, it is scary to think about what could happen. I think when confronted with the choice of their kids getting mauled or a limited hunt to keep the bear population in check, most of your key voting demographics, like suburban moms who might otherwise be “squishy” on this kind of stuff, will ultimately be on the side of public safety.

NJ Globe: Mitt Romney is retiring from the Senate and says it’s time for a new generation of leaders and that Joe Biden’s age should cause him to reconsider running for re-election.  Donald Trump, who is three years younger than Biden, disagreed with Romney.  Who is right?

Alex: I’ll continue to stand by my opinion that voters should make the call when it comes to factors like age — even for Nancy Pelosi, who kicked off her reelection campaign this week.

All of that aside, Senator Romney is a class act, and he deserved better than Democrats like segregationist sympathizer Joe Biden despicably claiming that he would put black people “back in chains.” Democrats smeared honorable and decent men like Romney for years and now bemoan the crass state of politics. I wish him many long years with his grandchildren in his retirement.

Dan: Senator Romney is right that we need to get a new generation of leaders ready to step up and take control in Washington. It is certainly frustrating seeing the lack of opportunity available for younger politicians in DC, as our leaders seem to skew older and stay for longer.

I know there are plenty of Americans frustrated to see a repeat of the Biden/Trump election, but let’s be honest with ourselves: that’s what we’re getting. As far as I’m concerned, President Biden has done more than enough to deserve a second term. I understand the worries about his age, but I have been impressed with his abilities to perform the duties of the job thus far.

And unfortunately, Republicans are on another crash course to nominate Donald Trump for the third straight Presidential election. As much as the national media has enjoyed covering the Republican primary, it doesn’t seem like much of a competition: Trump is far ahead, and his most serious competition, Governor DeSantis, has fallen off.

If the choice is once again between President Biden and the four-time indicted, twice impeached former President Trump, I won’t engage in a sideshow about age. The danger Donald Trump presents to our country is existential. Defeating him and ending his political career should be our number one priority.