New Jerseyans aren’t always civil, but it’s still possible for a liberal Democrat and a conservative Republican to have a rational and pleasant conversation about politics in the state. Dan Bryan is a former senior advisor to Gov. Phil Murphy and is now the owner of his own public affairs firm, and Alex Wilkes is an attorney and former executive director of America Rising PAC who advises Republican candidates in New Jersey and across the nation, including the New Jersey GOP. She is currently the campaign manager for Curtis Bashaw’s U.S. Senate race. Dan and Alex are both experienced strategists who are currently in the room where high-level decisions are made. They will get together weekly with New Jersey Globe editor David Wildstein to discuss politics and issues.
Based on what you’ve read or heard, how is Bob Menendez’s federal corruption trial going for New Jersey’s senior U.S. Senator?
Dan Bryan: Honestly, it’s been overshadowed this week. Given the high bar set by President Trump and his merry band of misfits, I’m not sure we see any more significant coverage of this trial until we get closer to a verdict.
If I may go slightly off topic – how are our Trump backers feeling today? Looking at you, Congressman Kean. You clearly don’t like the guy, but you endorsed him for political convenience. Now, he’s the first President in American history to be convicted of a crime, in what legal observers are calling the “weakest” of the four cases pending against him.
Still feel OK looking in the mirror? Still sleeping at night? Just checking.
Alex Wilkes: Is there even a trial going on? I feel like some other news events, including the Senator’s own potential independent bid, might be overshadowing it just a bit here.
It’s interesting to watch the Senator’s team paint his wife as some sort of Anna Nicole Smith hustler who cried poor and lured in one of the most powerful men in Washington. On the one hand, it feels pretty slimy, but on the other hand, you can’t help but acknowledge that the “gold digger” scenario is a tale – or trope – as old as time. It could work with a jury.
One of the closely-watched House primaries is in the 3rd district, where Andy Kim is giving up his seat to run for the United States Senate. What’s your take on the Democratic primary? On the Republican side, there is no line in Burlington and a contested primary between the party-backed candidate, Rajesh Mohan, and Shirley Maia-Cusick. Any predictions?
Alex: I think on the Republican side, when you’re dealing with two newer candidates who start out with low name recognition, it will all come down to whatever happens with the Dem-designed ballot. Otherwise, I think the other’s strengths sort of cancel each other out in terms of establishment backing versus self-funding. Either way, it will be exciting to see candidates who can reach different, non-traditional communities in what is sure to be an unpredictable presidential cycle.
For the Democrats, I think it provides an interesting case study in how national groups treat New Jersey in a post-line world. I think for a long time, left-leaning groups probably wrote off playing in primaries, probably taking into account the voter registration advantage and county line complication in staying out. With no lines, however, there’s an opportunity to presumably advance their own interests much more directly. The question becomes: how much will they? And empty endorsements don’t count — only cold, hard cash.
Dan: I think CD3 has been the sleeper story of this election. We have a district that, in theory, could be in play with Andy Kim about to get the Senate nomination. And on top of that, I think it’s the purest example we’ll have of what post-line primaries look like in New Jersey.
And the Democratic primary is close. Carol Murphy and Herb Conaway have both run solid races. But Conaway has raised and spent more money in a race where I don’t think any of the candidates are all that well known. He has the endorsement of all three county operations, which may no longer convey a line, but still means additional organizing and fundraising.
Both candidates would be a first – Herb Conaway would be the first black member of Congress from South Jersey, and Carol Murphy would be the first woman elected to Congress from South Jersey. Whoever wins, it will be a historic first for the region.
Who will be the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate: Curtis Bashaw or Christine Serrano Glassner?
Dan: I will always root against Donald Trump. So I am rooting hard for Curtis Bashaw (though I wish he hadn’t endorsed Trump earlier in his campaign). Any loss for Donald Trump is a win for our country, and a baby step back toward sanity for the Republican party.
Alex: Curtis Bashaw will not only be our Republican nominee, but will also be elected as our U.S. Senator in November.
Voters of all political persuasions are looking for political outsiders to shake up the status quo in Washington. Once a general electorate gets to know him, they’ll be much more impressed with a candidate like Curtis, who has spent his life creating jobs and prosperity for others, as opposed to lifelong government bureaucrat, Andy Kim.
How do you handicap Rob Menendez’s re-election campaign in the 8th district against Ravi Bhalla?
Alex: Mayor Bhalla has clearly tried hard to make this race a referendum on the Menendez legal drama, and Tuesday will tell us whether he overplayed his hand. I think Rep. Menendez clearly feels some wind at his back, and I wouldn’t write off anyone who feels that his family is under attack.
Dan: I think Congressman Menendez has been the favorite from the beginning. He’s likable, he put together a first-rate campaign team, and he’s running in a district with some of the strongest political apparatuses, with or without a line. I think you have to go into Tuesday night considering him the clear favorite to win, regardless of what polling is saying.
Mayor Bhalla has done the most important things a challenger can do: he ran an aggressive, smart campaign that didn’t pull any punches and went for the throat at every opportunity. I just think the math of the district is going to work against him. Brian Stack will get out the exact same number of voters today as he would in any election, and we know that because he does so in municipal elections that have never had a line. Same with people like Nick Sacco and Albio Sires.
Rob Menendez has been a good Congressman, he’s run a good campaign, and he built and maintained strong relationships in Hudson County that should help carry him to victory on Tuesday. But in a post-line world, I suppose anything is possible.
If Mayor Bhalla did have a path, this is the campaign you’d like to see him run. The only question for him is whether or not the electoral math is possible.