Stomping Grounds: Trump, Steinhardt, Christie, Moran and Opinion Journalism

New Jerseyans aren’t always civil, but it’s still possible for a liberal Democrat and a conservative Republican to have a rational and pleasant conversation about politics in the state. Dan Bryan is a former senior advisor to Gov. Phil Murphy and is now the owner of his own public affairs firm, and Alex Wilkes is an attorney and former executive director of America Rising PAC who advises Republican candidates in New Jersey and across the nation, including the New Jersey GOP. Dan and Alex are both experienced strategists who are currently in the room where high-level decisions are made. They will get together weekly with New Jersey Globe editor David Wildstein to discuss politics and issues.

Donald Trump is finishing the first week of his audacious second term in the White House.  How will his moves play in New Jersey, where he came within six points of carrying the state in the next election?  And what signals has he sent that he’ll be an omnipresent figure in the governor’s race?

Dan Bryan: There’s no way to know how long the honeymoon will last, and it’s always been impossible to predict what President Trump (sigh) will do on any given day. He didn’t play much of a role in 2017 or 2021, so we certainly don’t have any evidence that he’ll be directly involved in the 2025 race. But we know this: he will dominate every news cycle between now and election day.

My sense is that 2025 is not going to resemble 2017, when anti-Trump and anti-Christie fever swept and energized New Jersey Democrats to new heights. Governor Murphy was swept into office by a 14.5 point margin, and the next year saw our Congressional delegation go from 6-6 in 2014 to 11D-1R in 2018.

Will we see that same excitement and energy opposing Trump in 2025? So far, I don’t think so. Democrats on the ground feel deflated, and in focus groups they tend to focus more on their personal situations than on broader systemic reforms that help others. It feels like a time for smaller, competent, get-shit-done politics rather than big, sweeping reform.

Alex Wilkes: Well, Emerson – no friend of Republicans – just told us this week that Donald Trump actually rates more favorably than Phil Murphy, so I’m sure that was of little comfort to Democrats here in the already frigid temperatures.

It’s really no surprise to those of us who were pushing the pundits to recognize the sea change we were starting to feel during the summer and fall of 2021 when Jack Ciattarelli was storming every diner in the state. As the first debate showed with an angry Phil Murphy, the simple truth is that Democrats have gotten fat, happy, and, most importantly, soft during their period of one-party rule. Challenges to their authority are met with arrogance and scorn (and multiple Chapstick applications).

Now, not only have 2021 and 2024 shattered their illusions about the strength of their own brand, but Democrats also must learn to live without their County Line safety blankets. We see already that figures like Steve Fulop are fielding challenges from the left to “moderate” assembly candidates who have never really had to take a difficult position on anything.

But back to Donald Trump.

First, with respect to the gubernatorial race, anyone who can predict with any degree of certainty what he ultimately will or won’t do takes home a much bigger paycheck than I do. The most important thing he did for our general election candidate is tell his skeptical supporters that it was OK to vote early. A lot of them did, and now, a lot of them will do so again. He also has an overall fondness for New Jersey, which is important. Like New York, it represents a nostalgic throwback to his background and personal history. It’s home to his first post-presidential political upset (Congressman Van Drew’s historic party switch), and his beloved Bedminster golf course. He has political momentum at his back, and with November a mere 10 months away, he will not want that narrative to flip against him just before the 2026 midterms.

Second, remember what I said about assembly candidates facing tough decisions and challenges? President Trump’s bold, decisive actions put Republicans on offense and Democrats on defense. Ras Baraka cries foul over an ICE raid in Newark? Make Democrats answer as to why they supported so-called “sanctuary city” policies that incentivized illegal immigrants to come here and overwhelm community resources in the first place. If Republicans remain committed to not being backed into traps set up by Democrats and the media, President Trump’s agenda can absolutely buoy the party to victory and bury an opposition whose hands have grown soft with time.

The new U.S. Attorney for New Jersey will be State Sen. Doug Steinhardt, a staunch conservative and Trump supporter.  In picking Steinhardt, Trump rejected candidates with close ties to former Gov. Chris Christie, who had spent seven years as U.S. Attorney.  What do the next four years look like for Christie, nationally and in New Jersey?

Alex: Congratulations to Senator Steinhardt. Tough, decisive, pragmatic. A 10/10 pick for President Trump, no notes.

The President likes to settle scores, but I’m not sure this is necessarily one of them. The swiftness with which the entire nomination and confirmation process has moved convinces me that this was more about President Trump – a guy that Washington insiders have tried to take down for years – looking to quickly install allies who understand the assignment: return power to the people and end the politicization of our justice system. New Jersey can produce any number of attorneys who look good for the job, but my hunch is that Trump views Steinhardt as a fighter – plain and simple.

When it comes to Governor Christie, it would be foolish to bet against one of the shrewdest political operators and communicators of our time. On January 7, 2021, the entire world said President Trump would be behind bars, never to be seen again. Just four years later, he’s once again the leader of the free world with CEOs and foreign leaders scrambling to curry favor. I don’t know what Governor Christie wants to do, but America loves surprises and an good old-fashioned comeback.

Dan: Congrats to Senator Steinhardt. He’s a good man, and I’m sure he’ll do an honorable job as our U.S. Attorney.

I think Governor Christie has built a strong profile as a national political pundit. My guess is he still likes being able to influence the national political debate, and that he’ll continue to do so throughout Trump’s second term. And given how much the national press loves hearing from him, I don’t think Governor Christie will be going anywhere any time soon.

Though Governor Christie and I don’t agree on much, we will soon come together in common cause, as Juan Soto joins the Mets in Queens this spring. Governor, if you’re reading this, let’s exhibit some true bipartisanship and watch a Mets game together at Citi Field this season (preferably in the box I assume you and your fellow board members have access to). We won’t talk about my time in the Murphy Administration…or my time in Hoboken in the Zimmer administration…or really, anything I’ve ever done or said in my career. We’ll keep the focus on the Mets.

With the shuttering of the Star-Ledger on February 2, New Jersey will see the end of Tom Moran, their longtime editorial page editor.  Tom’s been around forever, for better or for worse, sharing his opinions on the world.  What’s his legacy?

Dan: I joined the vast majority of New Jerseyans in not reading or caring about what the Star Ledger Editorial Board wrote, so I can’t offer an informed opinion on it.

Alex: ​​I don’t think Tom Moran, um, likes me very much, but I wish him well!

Stomping Grounds has grown like gangbusters, and with the Star-Ledger gone and Gannett on life support, the two of you have emerged as New Jersey’s leading political pundits.  Thank you for answering my questions every week.  What’s the future of opinion journalism in New Jersey?

Alex: First, I want to thank David for taking a chance on us – and especially me as a New Jersey transplant! It can be intimidating to write with authority in a state steeped in tradition, but I have truly been humbled by the kind words I’ve heard from around the state. Even the saltier opinions make me smile and think. It means people care, and I appreciate it! For a while, I was suspicious that my husband was inflating the numbers of the people he said he knew that read it.

Second, for professionals like us, it’s especially nerve-wracking to create a paper trail of opinions that are entirely our own – as opposed to those of the people for whom we work. I give special credit to Dan because in a blue state, those are much trickier waters to navigate. There are a lot of hacks here, and Dan’s not one of them. It’s no wonder he has been so successful. By contrast, I don’t generally get people on our side yelling at me because as long as you’re whacking the other side with a 2×4 here, you’re probably in safe territory. If I were writing in Alabama, I would imagine that I would field many more complaints.

Third, what a joy as an adult to make a new friend as life changes all around you. Dan has been unfailingly kind, as we’ve traded stories of the pressures of being small business owners with young children. I’m still in the diaper stage of parenting, so seeing his wonderful family out there doing real things gives me hope!

Finally, I do believe, as Elon Musk has stated, that we are all the media now! Of course, we still need good, shoe leather reporting (especially here), but at a time when trust in institutions is at an-all time low, it’s great that David can start a successful media company, Dan and I can write for it, and it’s not layered over by the bureaucracy that has long colored news and opinions. I think I speak for us all in thanking everyone for their support and for reading!

Dan: Opinion journalism, like all forms of journalism, is in dire straits in New Jersey. I think the future lies in entrepreneurs smart enough to see the incredible opportunity in a wealthy, dynamic state of nine million people desperate for information about their state and their communities. Whoever figures out the right model to bring wide-scale journalism back to New Jersey and fill that vacuum will be incredibly successful.

I’ll say this: I liked writing this column more when no one read it. Now, I have to balance honesty with self-preservation. Not a week goes by that I don’t get a phone call from someone complaining about some perceived slight, whether real or not (by the way, to all of you tattletales and shit stirrers out there, as a Hudson County man once said, I know who you are, and I won’t forget you).

Kidding aside, it’s a joy to be able to contribute to the political debate in the state where I was born, raised, and chose to plant my own roots and raise my family in. I love New Jersey, and I care deeply about the future of our state. That’s why I write this column, despite the time, effort, and personal capital it costs. I suppose if I weren’t giving my opinions on the news of the week here, I’d probably be screaming them to passing traffic from a Garden State Parkway overpass. So David, on behalf of myself and all Parkway commuters in this state, thank you for this opportunity.

And to answer the questions that I get most about this column: yes, Alex and I really are friends, and yes, she’s very nice in real life. She’s a wonderful person with a beautiful family (whose husband happened to be a year or two behind me in high school).

There is far too little productive cross-party conversation these days, and I’m grateful to be able to spar with (and often lose to) a whip-smart talent like Alex on a weekly basis.