Deal legislative map looks increasingly possible

Though each party delegation on the Legislative Apportionment Commission released its own legislative map proposal last week, the possibility of a compromise map hashed out by both parties appears increasingly likely, the New Jersey Globe has learned.

Since the commission arrived at a Plainsboro hotel on Tuesday, commission tiebreaker Philip Carchman has put his emphasis on mediating a deal between the two parties and preventing the party-line split vote that happened on the commission in 2011 (and on the Congressional Redistricting Commission last year). If discussions continue as they are now, it’s unlikely Carchman will be forced to cast the deciding map between two competing maps.

Both parties’ draft proposals made a number of changes to the existing map – the Republican map in Central Jersey, the Democratic map in Burlington and Morris Counties – that could be undone as part of a deal. But one clear sticking point remains in Hudson County, where the initial Democratic map split Jersey City three ways.

In the face of a potential lawsuit from Hudson County politicians, the commission has decided against pursuing a three-way split, sources from both parties confirmed. But because of population growth in Hudson County, the current map will have to change to the detriment of at least one Democratic incumbent, with one possibility being to double-bunk powerful State Sens. Nicholas Sacco (D-North Bergen) and Brian Stack (D-Union City) into a single district.

Such a compromise may also create a new Asian-opportunity district based in Jersey City, which currently is split between a white-plurality district and a Hispanic-plurality district.

Another potential change on a compromise map would be to put State Sen. and former Gov. Richard Codey (D-Roseland) and State Sen. Nia Gill (D-Montclair) into the same suburban Essex district. Codey issued testimony upon the release of the initial maps opposing the reconfiguration of his 27th district, but it’s unlikely these are the changes he was hoping for.

And the final map may feature fewer competitive districts overall than either initial map – not massively surprising, since each party delegation is focused first and foremost on protecting its own incumbent legislators.

Notably, however, even if a bipartisan deal is reached, it may not be a unanimous one. A final deal map could end up having the support of all five Republican commissioners but only some of the Democratic delegation, which would still mean enough votes to bypass Carchman and pass a map.