Rutgers-Eagleton poll puts Sherrill job approvals at 45%

Gov. Mikie Sherrill has a 45%-29% job approval after her first 2 ½ months in office, with strong numbers among Democrats, according to a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll released this morning.

Sherrill is at 75%-3% among Democrats, 34%-28% among independents, and 11%-72% among Republicans.  More than one-in-four New Jerseyans (26%) say they have no opinion of their new governor, even though last year’s gubernatorial campaign was the most expensive in New Jersey history.

The poll differs in an apples-and-oranges fashion from a Fairleigh Dickinson University poll released nine days ago, when Sherrill’s job approval was at 58%-34% statewide and 88%-7% among Democrats.  FDU polled registered voters, and Rutgers-Eagleton’s sampling came from adults; this effectively oversamples uninformed people who are less likely to vote.

Her job approvals are at 44%-33% among men, 45%-25% among women, 40%-39% among Whites, 64%-18% among Blacks, 46%-20% among Hispanics, 45%-35% among seniors, 48%-29% among those making over $150,000 annually, and 40%-35% among New Jerseyans who have a high school diploma or less.  Sherrill is at 38%-39% at Jersey Shore, a solidly Republican region of the state.

“While we see her continue to garner more positive reactions than negative ones, many of her constituents are still forming an opinion,” said Ashley Koning, the director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling. “But among those who have made up their minds, about 6 in 10 hold a favorable impression and approve of the job Sherrill is doing. These are solid baseline numbers, and the real test will come as New Jerseyans see more of what she can deliver.”

President Donald Trump is deeply underwater in New Jersey, with favorables of 26% and unfavorables at 61%, with an unrealistically high 12% of New Jerseyans saying they have no opinion of him.

Trump remains strong among Republicans, 80%-12%, but he’s upside-down in every other demographic group: 18%-60% among independents, 31%-59% among men, 22%-63% among women, 37%-53% among Whites, 36%-57% among seniors, 33%-53% among people with a high school diploma or less, 31%-57% among Jersey Shore residents, and 24%-67% among those who earn more than $150,000-per-year.

These numbers, even if they’re close to accurate, could be a precursor to the November general election; the Rutgers-Eagleton data could be tested as early as next week’s special election for Congress in New Jersey’s 11th district.

U.S. Senator Cory Booker, who is up for re-election this year, has favorables of 38%-33%, with an unusually high 20% having no opinion.  U.S. Senator Andy Kim’s favorables are at 34% to 17%, with 30% having no opinion.

Sherrill’s favorables are at 44%-29%.

Asked to give a letter grade for Sherrill’s overall job performance, 13% gave her an A, 30% awarded a B, 19% were at a C, 11% at D, and 14% gave her an F.   Her lowest grades came on the issue she has most prioritized: affordability and taxes.  On both issues, Sherrill received an F from roughly three-in-ten New Jerseyans.  But on the state budget and government spending, 29% awarded Sherrill an A or B; and 33% gave her an A or B on education.

“Gov. Sherrill’s grades mirror much of what we saw as Gov. Phil Murphy left office, pointing to how difficult it is for any new governor – especially one of the same party – to make headway on substantive issues while still building out her administration and setting an agenda,” said Koning. “None of these issues have easy answers, and the grades reflect that reality and the surmounting challenges that have grown over time more than any judgment of her early governorship thus far.”

The Rutgers-Eagleton poll faced sharp criticism last fall when it showed Sherrill with a five-point lead in the governor’s race against Republican Jack Ciattarelli; Sherrill won that election by fourteen points.  That poll, conducted among likely voters, was in the field from October 3 to 17 and released on October 22; during that period, tens of millions were spent by both candidates and outside groups.

The poll was framed as Sherrill’s first 100 days in office, but that is slightly flawed: it went into the field 66 days after she took office.  Today is the 79th day of Sherrill’s term as governor.

The first Rutgers-Eagleton poll of the Sherrill administration is nearly identical to the May 2018 poll, four months after Murphy took office: Murphy’s job approvals were at 46%-29%, and his favorables were at 36%-24%.  That poll was also conducted among adults, not voters, but with live callers.

Gov. Chris Christie’s first Rutgers-Eagleton poll in March 2010 had his favorables at 45%-26%.

The Rutgers-Eagleton Poll was conducted between March 27 and March 30 with a sample size of 1,58 adults, drawn from a panel of randomly selected New Jerseyans who have consented to participate in surveys on their views; the margin of error is +/- 3.2%.   The data in this poll is 10 days old.