Holley faces long mathematical odds to overcome deficit in Roselle

Roselle Mayor Donald Shaw’s 50-vote Democratic primary lead against former Assemblyman Jamel Holley (D-Roselle) may be small, but it’s looking sturdy with only a small number of ballots left to be counted.

There were 59 provisional ballots cast in the borough’s Democratic primary, plus another ten ballots in need of curing. It’s unlikely that every provisional ballot will be accepted or that every cure letter will be returned, so not all 69 of those votes will ultimately be counted.

An unknown number of late-arriving mail-in ballots are also likely still outstanding; as long as they’re postmarked by Election Day, such ballots have until next Monday to arrive.

Shaw has been mayor since 2020 and had the county party line for re-election, but Holley, a vaccine skeptic who left the Assembly in 2021 for a quixotic State Senate campaign, mounted a formidable off-the-line challenge. During his 2021 Senate race, Holley carried Roselle by double digits, and his campaign this year got the support of all of Roselle’s living ex-mayors.

Provided that Shaw does ultimately win, much of the credit goes to State Sen. Joe Cryan (D-Union), who helmed the Democratic ticket in Roselle and heavily involved himself in the mayoral race.  So did Senate President Nicholas Scutari, the Union County Democratic Chairman, who spent heavily on the Shaw campaign.   And State Sen. Brian P. Stack (D-Union City) brought 400 volunteers into Roselle on the Saturday of Memorial Day weekend to canvass for Shaw.