Home>Campaigns>Where did Vin Gopal do best? Everywhere.

State Sen. Vin Gopal. (Photo: Kevin Sanders for the New Jersey Globe).

Where did Vin Gopal do best? Everywhere.

Democratic senator carried 17 of 19 towns in theoretically competitive district

By Joey Fox, November 13 2023 4:33 pm

If there’s one thing that last Tuesday’s legislative elections accomplished, it’s that no one is likely to ever doubt State Sen. Vin Gopal (D-Long Branch)’s electoral abilities again.

Going into Election Day, both parties believed that the contest between Gopal and his Republican challenger, communications executive Steve Dnistrian, was highly competitive. Gopal had only won his Monmouth County district by four percentage points in 2021, and Republicans were hammering away at issues like offshore wind and education that seemed to be gaining traction among voters.

But when results actually started coming in, it was clear that Gopal had been dramatically underestimated. The two-term Democrat beat Dnistrian by nearly 12,000 votes, 33,558 to 21,866 – an astonishing 60%-39% margin. (Those numbers remain unofficial for now, with provisional ballots still to be counted.)

Of the 11th district’s 19 towns, Dnistrian won only two of them: Freehold Township, which Gopal only lost by 158 votes out of more than 9,000 cast, and Colts Neck, which is one of the most resolutely conservative towns in the state. Gopal carried every other municipality, from tiny Shore towns like Allenhurst, to inland suburbs like Tinton Falls and Ocean Township, to urban hubs like Asbury Park and Long Branch.

In doing so, Gopal outran Gov. Phil Murphy’s 2021 gubernatorial performance by 23 percentage points; Murphy had lost the district that year by a narrow margin, which contributed to Gopal’s closer-than-expected victory and the defeat of his two running mates, now-former Assemblymembers Joann Downey (D-Freehold) and Eric Houghtaling (D-Neptune). In some towns, Gopal did more than 30 points better than Murphy.

Gopal’s victory was easily enough to get his two running mates, Assemblywomen-elect Margie Donlon (D-Ocean Township) and Luanne Peterpaul (D-Long Branch), elected against incumbent Republicans Marilyn Piperno (R-Colts Neck) and Kim Eulner (R-Shrewsbury). And he appears to have had coattails further down the ballot, too, with local Democrats in Eatontown, Fair Haven, and Neptune City doing well in important municipal races.

Donlon and Peterpaul currently have a combined 56.5% of the vote, an extremely robust total against two incumbents. In addition to Colts Neck and Freehold Township, they also lost Deal and Shrewsbury Borough, where Eulner was previously a councilwoman.

Deal, population 900, is an interesting case study. The borough’s voters, most of them Syrian Jews, typically vote for Republicans by massive margins; Donald Trump won the borough 74%-26% in the 2020 presidential election, making it by far the most Republican town in Monmouth County. But Gopal has made substantial inroads there, and carried the borough 61%-39% this year despite his party affiliation.

That, in microcosm, is a big part of why Gopal was able to do so astonishingly well. First elected to the Senate in 2017 at age 32 after defeating a Republican incumbent, Gopal has spent the last six years building up deep connections in every town in his district, including with local elected Republicans and traditionally conservative constituencies. It’s an effort that clearly paid off last week.

Combine that with Team Gopal’s colossal financial advantage – there’s still tallying to be done, but Gopal and his allies seem to have spent at least $5 million on the race – and Republicans may have never stood a chance.

(Redistricting gave Gopal a small boost, too; the new legislative map took deep-red West Long Branch out of his district and added in Bradley Beach and Fair Haven, which he won by 20 and 12 points, respectively.)

The question now is whether Republicans try again in 2025, when Gopal won’t be on the ballot and Donlon and Peterpaul have to fend for themselves for the first time. If the governor’s race at the top of the ticket is competitive, 11th Republicans may have better luck than they did this year – but Gopal’s massive victory shows that they have a lot of work to do first.

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