Menendez indictment could determine who controls the legislature

The indictment of U.S. Senator Bob Menendez on federal bribery charges last week could be a pivotal issue in determining who controls state government in an off-year, low-turnout election just under six weeks away.

“The Menendez story is just the latest on a laundry list of why Republicans have to come out and make a change,” said Micah Rasmussen, the director of the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics at Rider University.  “This is a turnout tool for Republicans.”

Republicans are betting that the indictment only expands their political fortunes.  GOP candidates were largely seen as already being on offense; this indictment only further fuels their messaging that there needs to be significant change in the state’s political class.

“Senator Menendez’s bribery charges are alarming, and any state Democrat who doesn’t call on him to resign has no place to serve in the state legislature,” said Stephanie Rivera, a spokesperson for the Republican State Leadership Committee.

To what extent the indictment will outweigh other issues, including abortion, sex education, gender identity in schools, off-shore wind, and gas stoves – remains to be seen. Still, if anything, the indictment excites the Republican base, which might be enough to change the turnout model in close races.

Indeed, Republicans running in the state’s most competitive districts – the 3rd, 4th, 11th, and 16th – have pounced on the allegations and have tried to tie their Democratic opponents to Menendez.

“Bob Menendez is everything people in New Jersey hate about politicians,” State Sen. Ed Durr (R-Logan) said in a joint statement with Assemblywoman Bethanne McCarthy Patrick (R-Mannington) and her running mate, Thomas Tedesco.  “We send these Democrats to Washington and Trenton to protect us; yet all they do is sell out the office and quite literally line their own pockets with cash.”

This is one example of Republicans attempting to localize the Menendez case to their own races, trying to catch Democrats off-guard.

Still, these attacks might have stemmed from the quick and decisive response from Democrats.

The state’s Democratic establishment has called for Menendez to resign, including Gov. Phil Murphy, U.S. Senator Cory Booker, seven members of the House delegation, 13 of the 21 county chairs, and legislative leaders.

“The indictment was a kill shot by the Southern District of New York,” Rasmussen said.  “There was no mistaking its explosiveness and no denying it.”

That Menendez’s state Democratic support has essentially eroded indicates that this is a different political moment.  In 2015, when Menendez faced similar (though less severe) charges, the Democratic establishment lined up in his support, with Booker even testifying on his behalf. Gone are those halcyon days.

Instead of supporting Menendez, Democrats now view him as a political vulnerability.  They believe that to stay competitive in this year’s legislative elections, they must sever ties with him.

Democrats hope the indictment’s political implications might have been softened by the party leaders coming out so quickly and condemning Menendez. Democratic legislative candidates in every competitive district quickly sought to neutralize the issue by telling Menendez to resign.

Still, the story is not good for Democrats, who would prefer to refocus the campaigns on issues they see as favorable, especially abortion access.  Whether they can move beyond the Menendez indictment remains to be seen.

While State Sen. Vin Gopal (D-Long Branch) swiftly called for Menendez’s ouster on Friday, his Republican opponent, Steve Dnistrian, was still hammering the two-term Democrat, a former county chairman, on his connections to Menendez today.

“In low-turnout elections, is an energetic Republican base enough to do damage, or have the Democrats – in a state where the Republican vote is smaller – successfully stopped the bleeding among Democratic and unaffiliated voters,” Rasmussen questioned.