The Watcher: Democratic governor’s race is getting tighter, poll says

New Jersey is desperate for polling.

A new Democratic gubernatorial primary poll conducted by Hart Research for Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop shows a tightening of the race: Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) leads Fulop, 20%-14%, with Newark Mayor Ras Baraka at 12%, Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Tenafly) at 11%, New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller at 9%, and former Senate President Steve Sweeney at 8%.  This poll shows that nearly one in four Democrats remain undecided.

To put these numbers in some perspective: a Hart Research poll conducted in February showed Sherrill in front with 25%, followed by Fulop and Baraka each at 12%, Spiller at 11%, Gottheimer at 9%, and Sweeney at 5%.  And last November, Hart had Sherrill leading with 17%, Baraka at 12%, Spiller at 10%, Sweeney at 9%, Fulop at 7%, and Gottheimer at 6%.

With vote-by-mail ballots due to go out a week from Saturday, there are two noteworthy points in the poll: first, that Sherrill has been first in every internal and public poll in the race so far; and second, that Sherrill and Fulop are running dead even on their total positives; Sherrill is at 41%-5% and Fulop is at 38%-8%.  Since February, Fulop’s positives have increased by ten points, while Sherrill’s have increased by three points.  (Fulop has outspent Sherrill during this time period.)

Baraka is at 39%-7%, up from 35%-6% in February; Spiller is at 34%-10%, up from 32%-8% in February; Gottheimer is at 30%-14%, up from 29%-8% in February; and Sweeney is at 24%-21%; he was at 24% in November and February.

The poll was in the field within the last week, and portions were obtained by the New Jersey Globe, which has not reviewed the questionnaire or the complete survey.  For positive/negative ratings, respondents were split between the candidates being identified by name and also by their title.

TRAINS DON’T REALLY LEAVE THE STATION: The Communications Workers of America will stay out of the Democratic primary for governor of New Jersey.  Four candidates screened with the CWA; Ras Baraka, Steve Fulop, Mikie Sherrill, and Sean Spiller were the only ones to complete their questionnaire.   To state the obvious, the influential union can avoid picking sides in a primary that remains close and still has a chance to help the eventual nominee win the general election.

THE ARGUMENT THAT BARAKA CAN’T WIN A GENERAL ELECTION IS BULLSHIT, HIS CHIEF STRATEGIST SAYS: In a bid to dissuade potential supporters that Ras Baraka would be a weak general election candidate, Bill Hyers sent a memo to Working Families Party board members arguing that the Newark mayor’s candidacy presents Democrats with an opportunity to create “a long lost Black turnout operation for statewide and local candidates.”  Hyers said that using 2021 as a floor for Democratic performance among White independents, “the Black Turnout we are producing will protect NJ from future Red Waves. No other candidate here can produce such a safety net.”

“As is the case in most off-year elections, the vote trends older and whiter,” Hyers explained.  “Whoever can motivate the electorate to expand turnout in demographics that are projected to underperform is best suited to win this election.”   He says that Baraka’s ability to deliver Black voters gives  Democrats “the opportunity to ensure a 2025 win without having to worry about the fickle nature of suburban vote.”

Hyers explains that Black voters have not been motivated to turn out since Barack Obama, and his pitch is that Baraka can be a “motivating force” and that a “motivated AA electorate can be a game changer in New Jersey.”

“There has been a decline in general in African American turnout due to lack of inspiration and real field operations. In 2012, African American turnout was 68% of eligible voters, and that dropped to 60% of eligible African American voters in the 2024 elections. In 2021, an abysmal 25% of eligible African American voters participated in the election,” he said.  “A motivating force and solid ground game, getting that number to even a reasonable 35% of eligible voters would be an increase of 85,764 voters, an insurmountable number for Republicans to counter.

According to Hyers, the way for New Jersey Democrats to win is to nominate a candidate who can turn out Black voters.  “Let’s not listen to the people who lose elections to tell us how to win elections,” Hyers stated.  “Let’s remind ourselves of how Democrats have won, in order to prepare to win again.”

The New Jersey Globe obtained a copy of Hyers’ memo.

DEEPLY INDEBTED: Middlesex County Democratic Chairman Kevin McCabe is all-in for Mikie Sherrill for governor, hosting a fundraiser that raised a reported $230,000 for her super PAC, One Giant Leap.  Middlesex has also raised hard money for Sherrill.  One pundit pointed out that without county lines, party organizations need to demonstrate their worth in other ways; money, it seems, is a good way to start.

IT’S ALL ABOUT THE BRAND: Seven months ago, the New Jersey Coalition of Latino Pastors and Ministers announced that they would endorse Josh Gottheimer for governor if he ran. On Monday, the New Jersey Coalition of Latino Pastors and Ministers endorsed Steve Fulop in the same Democratic primary – something that caused The Watcher to wonder if the clergy group had flipped its support.  As it turns out, North Jersey has two separate groups that just happen to have identical names; one goes by NJCLPM and the other by CoLaPa.  For voters, it’s nice that there’s nothing confusing about that.

BIG MISTAKE: The acting U.S. Attorney for New Jersey, Alina Habba, is on a narrow time clock – she gets 120 days as the interim caretaker unless President Donald Trump nominates her and the U.S. Senate confirms her — which will bring her tenure through July 22.  But if her three-week predecessor, John Giordano, had named her as his First Assistant before stepping down – he’s slated to become the new U.S. Ambassador to Namibia – Habba could have spent 365 days in the post without Senate confirmation.  Habba could get extended by winning a majority vote of the seventeen sitting U.S. District Court judges, but remember that fifteen of them were nominated by Democratic presidents.

MARK YOUR CALENDARS: The second debates of the 2025 governor’s race, sponsored by NJ PBS, will be on Wednesday, May 7, for the Republicans and Monday, May 12, for the Democrats.  That will be followed by the third and final gubernatorial debates, sponsored by the New Jersey Globe, On New Jersey and Rider University: Sunday, May 18 for the Democrats and Tuesday, May 20 for the Republicans.  Each debate will last 2.5 hours and be centered around three specific issue topics: Democrats will debate on Taxes and Affordability, Education, and Public Transportation and Development; and Republicans will debate on Taxes and Affordability, Education, and Crime. Save Jersey is also sponsoring the GOP debate.  These are the official debates sanctioned by the New Jersey Election Law Enforcement Commission.

NO GOLF MONDAY: Former Attorney General Gurbir Grewal testified at the federal corruption trial of Nadine Menendez on Monday and primarily repeated what he told jurors last year at the trial of her husband, ex-U.S. Senator Bob Menendez.  Businessman Jose Uribe, who pleaded guilty to bringing the Menendezes and cooperated with prosecutors, also testified.  The good news for Grewal is that his testimony came on Monday, when Ridgewood Country Club is closed.

NO DISCOUNT FOR BEING LEFT OFF THE BALLOT: Perennial candidate Pablo Olivera has paid a $275 fine for not filing a report with the New Jersey Election Law Enforcement Commission for his independent 2023 State Senate race in the 29th district – the one where he was left off the ballot in two Hudson County municipalities: Harrison and East Newark.  He received 181 votes in Essex – 8,585 votes less than the winner, Senate Majority Leader Teresa Ruiz.  Olivera, who has lost fifteen elections, told ELEC he didn’t spend any money.

VIRGINIA IS FOR SMALL BUYS: A PAC associated with the Republican Governor’s Association launched a five-figure digital buy attacking the congressional record of the clear Democratic nominee for governor of Virginia, Abigail Spanberger.  That prompts The Watcher to remind readers of three things: (1) Funny as it seems, that five figures is actually not that much money – it could be as little as $10,000; (2) Spanberger is from Red Bank and was Mikie Sherrill’s roommate in Washington for six years; and (3) New Jersey is still wondering if – or when —  the RGA will begin playing in New Jersey.   The Democratic Governors Association is already playing in New Jersey, albeit for free; this week, their spokesperson said: “While Ciattarelli and Spadea are busy making their MAGA scrapbooks, Garden State families are still waiting to hear how they will get to work solving some of their toughest challenges, and know they can’t trust either as their next governor.” The Watcher is the first media organization to pick up the DGA’s five-day-old statement, so congratulations to them.

SPANBERGER ISN’T THE ONLY NEW JERSEYAN RUNNING IN VIRGINIA: After two runs for Congress in New Jersey’s 12th district, Republican Darius Mayfield moved to Virginia and wants to challenge a Democratic congressman there; he’s seeking Spanberger’s old seat.  But Mayfield hasn’t given up Jersey completely and this week he endorsed Jack Ciattarelli for the GOP gubernatorial nomination.  Here’s what Mayfield said:  “Now I know Jack is not necessarily ‘MAGA,’ but that doesn’t matter because he’s always been honest about who he is and what he believes and that I can respect.  A man who knows who he is isn’t afraid to state it and can still find common ground and focus on the things we are agreeable on.  More than I can say for people like Bill Spadea, who talk out every side of their mouth and have the gift of gab to keep grifting and stringing along hardnose voters who are disillusioned by their need for ‘change’ and ‘outsiders.'”

HERE’S THE DIFFERENCE: Challenges to the nominating petitions of candidates running for President, Governor, U.S. Senate, U.S. House of Representatives, State Senate, General Assembly, and Delegate to the Democratic or Republican National Conventions may be done through a letter to the Division of Elections and typically handled by an Administrative Law Judge within a day; candidates seeking county and municipal office, including county committee seats, can be challenged by the respective clerk.  There’s no chance to appear before an ALJ. Still, for lower-budget local offices, there’s an intrinsic advantage to better financed, party-backed candidates: filing a petition challenge with a Superior Court Judge costs $300.  And while challenges before administrative law judges are frequently handled by non-attorneys, few pro se litigants succeed before Superior Court judges.

OLD MAN RIVER: Today is Paul Robeson Day, under a new law enacted ten days ago to honor the birth of Paul Robeson, “a gifted debater, scholar, linguist, athlete, actor, singer, author, political activist, and the quintessential 20th-century renaissance man.”   From the Resolution: “Robeson strongly believed in the responsibility of influential figures to advocate for justice and peace.  This sense of responsibility led Robeson to advocate for the rights of African Americans, workers, and colonized peoples around the world.  Unfortunately, his political activism led to his blacklisting and the revocation of his passport, significantly hindering his career and obscuring his accomplishments and role in the history of civil rights.”

TRIVIA: The closest U.S. Senate race in history was in New Hampshire in 1974, when Republican Louis Wyman appeared to defeat Democrat John Durkin by two votes; after Wyman’s apparent 355-vote Election Day margin, a recount gave Durkin a ten-vote victory; on a second recount, Wyman won by two.  Durkin appealed the win to the U.S. Senate; eventually, the two agreed to face off in a September 1975 do-over election, which Durkin won by nearly eleven percentage points.

WANT MORE? The definitive book on the Durkin vs. Wyman Senate race is out of print and hard to find, but the U.S. Senate website has more than enough.  And if you want to go down a rabbit hole, click HERE to read the Senate Rules Committee report on the disputed election.

FISH FOR SALE: If you’ve never seen The Farmer’s Daughter, the good news is it’s free on YouTube.  Loretta Young won an Oscar for her 1947 portrayal of an idealistic farm girl who becomes a maid in the home of a congressman and his political boss mother – and then runs for Congress herself.  But – if you don’t watch the entire movie, invest one minute and watch how malleable the party faithful are at the 56-minute mark.

If you’ve missed reading The Watcher, click HERE to catch up.